Deciding which CFB team is the worst for the coming season is open to debate, but I've narrowed my choices down to Akron and UMass. Since Akron lost to UMass at home last year, I'm going with the Zips as this season's worst.
Akron has lost at least 11 games in each of the last three seasons and are entering 2013 with one of the most difficult schedules in the country for a team not playing in an auto-matic qualifying conference. The defense last year was non-existent giving up over 450 yards per game. I can't see how it will be much better this season.
Since 2010, Akron (3-33) joins UNLV (6-32), New Mexico (6-31), New Mexico State (7-30) and Tulane (8-29) as the worst teams in the country.
New coach Terry Bowden got off to a rocky start last year winning only one game and with a schedule that includes: @ Central Florida, James Madison, @ Michigan, LA-Monroe, @ Bowling Green, Ohio, @ Northern Illinois, @ Miami, Ball State, Kent State, @ UMass and Toledo...it's hard to see more than one or two wins this season. Three wins would be a great improvement over the past few years.
If you have another team in mind who fits the "worst" team category....let us know.
I can't really weigh in on the worst teams as I rarely spend much attention on teams outside the SEC/B10/B12/PAC12/ACC, but if we want to talk about teams that will be surprisingly bad teams, there are a few that stand out who should disappoint.
Florida State: The Noles have undergone a pretty big changeover this season in defensive personnel, losing Tank Carradine, Bjoern Werner, and Brandon Jenkins at DE, plus Xavier Rhodes in the secondary, and a decent amount of experience elsewhere. FSU's greatest strength over the last few seasons (besides easy schedules) have been their defensive efficiency. Their ability to stall opponents' offensive drives allowed them to control tempo and give their offense extra possessions throughout the season. Not to say they don't still have a lot of talent, but they lost some elite players here that just can't be replaced. Worse still, Fisher has lost six assistant coaches, including DC Mark Stoops which is going to make it really difficult to put a consistent product on the field to start the season.
On offense, the departure of Manuel leaves them needing to field the least experienced QB they'll have had on the field in years, assuming Jameis Winston lands the starting QB spot. Their 2013 recruiting class brought in some talented receivers, but it's tough to expect a lot from them in receiving this year without the time to play together. Additionally, they're losing their most experienced running back in Thompson, and Lonnie Pryor at fullback, who played a key role in run blocking and pass protection. They don't have a true #1, veteran RB that can step in and take the pressure off a new QB.
In special teams, the loss of Dustin Hopkins is significant as well, as he was an extremely reliable kickoff man with a 4.0+ second hangtime and excellent elevation/range in FGs.
So with key losses in defense, offense, special teams, and coaching, FSU is looking to be one of the most depleted teams in 2013. Being a perennial top-tier team in the ACC always makes them a favourite in the eyes of the betting market, but I really think they should be a team to bet against this season. Their performance @ Pittsburgh in Week 1 will be very interesting. Fortunately for them, their overall schedule is an easy one again, and they should still win 9+ games SU, but when we're seeing them laying big numbers based on reputation, I think there will be a lot of value in going against them in 2013. I won't be surprised to see them end up a sub .500 ATS team.
Notre Dame: There will be a hangover here. A 12-0 magical season followed by an absolutely humiliating performance in the NC game is going to make it tough on the Irish to play at a high level in 2013. Add in +5 net close wins in 2012, a fairly tough 2013 schedule, and the loss of Eiffert, Riddick, T'eo, Motta, and Slaughter and ND has lost many of it's biggest playmakers.
The personnel losses aren't too severe, but I think the emotional downturn after the NC failure will define this team with an early loss to the Wolverines and/or Spartans. I think they revert to an 8 win team this season.
Oklahoma: There were signs of the Sooners dipping a little last year and with the loss of Landry Jones, Lane Johnson, and Kenny Stills, the OU offense is going to be a problem this year. Blake Bell is not a good enough passer to start for the Sooners, despite him having put in his time. He's more of a classic "dual-threat" QB that runs because he can't pass. If he makes it into the starting role, Oklahoma will struggle. Additionally, OU failed to add much on the OL or in receivers, but did add a 5 star recruit in Keith Ford at running back who should be an impressive offensive weapon for the Sooners.
In defense, they looked a little ragged in stopping the run game last season, and drafted a big pool of players for the DL & LB position. Promising depth for the long term, but with a moderately tough schedule, there will be a lot of pressure on them to step up to compensate for an offense that will undoubtedly fail to sustain drives at a higher rate than in the Landry Jones era.
All of this puts Bob Stoops in a tough spot in 2013, as the offensive personnel he has available doesn't really lend itself to his conventional gameplan, and there's been talk of adopting an offensive scheme that's much more heavily ground-based. I think this fundamental change is going to be disruptive to the Sooners chemistry and the combination of trying to alter their offensive approach and the need for their defense to perform at a higher level than last year is going to result in stalled drives and defensive breakdowns against some of the better teams on their schedule.
The stretch of Notre Dame, TCU, and Texas in Weeks 5/6/7 could effectively take them out of contention for the Big 12 race if they can't develop some consistency in their first four weeks. Tulsa in Week 4 will be a solid measuring stick. I think they max out at 9 wins in 2013.
The combined ATS records of the three teams you described were a combined 18-22 last season. Notre Dame at 7-6 was the only team with a positive record barely making a profit. Florida State came in 5-9 and Oklahoma 6-7.
We both know the public will bet up Notre Dame each and every year so tend to agree with your assessment of the Irish.
Might differ with your take on betting against FSU this season. The Noles 2012 schedule was not top-50 last year (# 66 by Sargarin) and won't be a top-50 this year either. With the exception of Bethune-Cookman, teams on the 2013 Seminole schedule posted a 67-67 won/loss record during 2012. Bethune-Cookman is in the same conference as Savannah State and we know how that turned out last year. My view is the public will be leery of FSU this season with many of the same concerns you expressed and especially after being a money loser last year. The schedule is very manageable:
@ Pittsburgh, Bye, Nevada, Bethune-Cookman, @ Boston College, Maryland, Bye, @ Clemson, North Carolina State, Miami, @ Wake Forest, Syracuse, Idaho, @ Florida
Florida State plays clemson on the road, and that is bad news for the 'Noles. A loss there and say good-bye to a BCS Bowl. I really do not see Clemson losing two Conference games if they defeat FSU. As far as wagering goes, Florida State has never been a good team to take. At least not since the 1900's. What they are is a good vig cash cow for the books, going 6-6 in many seasons.
confused a bit by some responses...cheked out 2 power ratings. had georgia state as worst by 5 and 15 points..disregarding gstate, a new team, then idaho, umass, nmass and fiu are at bottom. idaho was below the others but nice result at hone vs. NI this last week
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