[TheKnuckleballer]

Over the last four years, I have developed a computer based, statistical system designed to extrapolate value in Vegas's lines. The system enables me to eliminate lines that do not have any value and capitalize on those with a high probability of winning. Also, the sytem allows me to have a 100% objective opinion and mitigates the human element. It is important that you remember this is a marathon not a sprint. The system gets stronger and stronger as the season wears on due to more and more relevant data. Also, please understand that money management is the key to long term success. Unfortunately, I will not be posting any "1000***** Triple GOLD platinum WINNERS," but I will be posting a 55%+ winning percentage and + units at the end of the season. Personally, I recomend a percentage based money management system where top plays equal 3% of your CFB bankroll and regular plays equal 1.5% of your CFB bankroll with the bankroll being recalculated each week. For tracking purposes, I will use a unit based money management system where top plays equal 2 Units and regular plays equal 1 Unit. I will assume a 10% vig on all picks. This weeks picks are in the works and will be posted tomorrow. GL and enjoy finding value in Vegas's lines on a consistent basis!!! Feedback is welcome.

(Cheers and GL!!!!)

[mcbaseball10]

Look forward to seeing the picks! Welcome to SBR. Always looking for different angles.

[L2Gunz]

keystone kid??

agent 99??

[AdamL2424]

Nice sounds intresting will be watching the picks

[TheKnuckleballer]

Overall Record (4-2) +1.7 Units
Top Plays (1-1) -.2 Units
Regular Plays (3-1) +1.9 Units

Last week I had trouble posting under this thread, so I started a new one. I hope to be back on this thread for the rest of the year. Above is my record thus far, and I have two picks for tonight. GL!!

**Top Play** (2 Units)
Colorado +17

*Regular Play* (1 Unit)
UAB +10.5

[TheKnuckleballer]

Tonight (2-0) +3 Units
Overall Record (6-2) +4.7 Units
Top Plays (2-1) +1.8 Units
Regular Plays (4-1) +2.9 Units

**Top Plays** (2 Units)
Colorado +17 Win +2 Units

*Regular Plays* (1 Unit)
UAB +10.5 Win +1 Unit

Luck played a major roll in tonights Colorado cover, but in order to get lucky you must put yourself in the right position. That's what this system does. It puts you in a position to take advantage of the many opportunities Vegas presents to you. GL and I encourage you to continue watching and winning throughout the season!!!

(Cheers to a 2-0 Night!!!)

[L2Gunz]

Nice Job

[TheKnuckleballer]

Last Night (2-0) +3 Units
Overall Record (6-2) +4.7 Units
Top Plays (2-1) +1.8 Units
Regular Plays (4-1) +2.9 Units

Tonight I have one top play with a high probability of winning. As I have mentioned before, this is a marathon, but it never hurts to start out with a lead. This weekend should be a good one, especially if last night was a sign of things to come. Watch and win as my system rolls on throughout the season! GL and enjoy the games tonight!!

**Top Play** (2 Units)
Utah State +24

(TGIF and enjoy the games!!!)

[TheKnuckleballer]

Tonight (1-0) +2 Units
Overall Record (7-2) +6.7 Units
Top Plays (3-1) +3.8 Units
Regular Plays (4-1) +2.9 Units

**Top Plays** (2 Units)
Utah State +24 Win +2 Units

Tonight was another lucky night w/ a late miracle cover by Utah State, but I will never complain about a little good luck. I will be posting tomorrow's picks in about 5 minutes. GL and enjoy the football!!

(Cheers!!!)

[TheKnuckleballer]

Tonight (1-0) +2 Units
Overall Record (7-2) +6.7 Units
Top Plays (3-1) +3.8 Units
Regular Plays (4-1) +2.9 Units

Below are Saturday's picks. There are a lot of picks for Saturday and all of them are getting points. Remember that this is a marathon not a sprint, but in the past my sytem gets more and more accurate as additional stats are generated. Also, remember that money management is the key to long term success. Feedback is welcome. GL and enjoy the winners!!!

**Top Plays** (2 Units)
Boston College +3.5
Air Force +2.5
Cal +4
Mississippi State +5

*Regular Plays* (1 Unit)
Marshall +2.5
LSU +3.5
Northwestern +8
UNLV +5.5
Vandy +10
Kent State +21

[TheKnuckleballer]

Good luck to everyone today!!!

-The Knuckleballer

[HoulihansTX]

Yes I'm on Kent State also. Its an underground pick, since nobody knows that Baylor's top two QB's are injured. Baylor is starting some hometown hero.

[TheKnuckleballer]

[COLOR=#000000! important]Yesterday (4-6) -4.9 Units
Overall Record (11-8) +1.8 Units
Top Plays (4-4) -.8 Units
Regular Plays (7-4) +2.6 Units

**Top Plays** (2 Units)
Boston College +3.5 Win +2 Units
Air Force +2.5 Loss -2.2 Units
Cal +4 Loss -2.2 Units
Mississippi State +5 Loss -2.2 Units

*Regular Plays* (1 Unit)
Marshall +2.5 Loss -1.1 Units
LSU +3.5 Win +1 Unit
Northwestern +8 Win +1 Unit
UNLV +5.5 Loss -1.1 Units
Vandy +10 Loss -1.1 Units
Kent State +21 Win +1 Unit[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#000000! important][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#000000! important]Yesterday was tough. A couple of close losses kept us under .500, but I'm certain it was just a small bump in the road. I'm looking forward to next week and getting back on track with some more winners. GL and keep in mind that this is a marathon not a sprint! [/COLOR]

[AdamL2424]

no worries still tailing your picks knuck!

[AdamL2424]

Fla. Atlantic didnt come through for me went 3-1 this weekend

[TheKnuckleballer]

[COLOR=#000000! important]Yesterday (4-6) -4.9 Units
Overall Record (11-8) +1.8 Units
Top Plays (4-4) -.8 Units
Regular Plays (7-4) +2.6 Units

**Top Plays** (2 Units)
Boston College +3.5 Win +2 Units
Air Force +2.5 Loss -2.2 Units
Cal +4 Loss -2.2 Units
Mississippi State +5 Loss -2.2 Units

*Regular Plays* (1 Unit)
Marshall +2.5 Loss -1.1 Units
LSU +3.5 Win +1 Unit
Northwestern +8 Win +1 Unit
UNLV +5.5 Loss -1.1 Units
Vandy +10 Loss -1.1 Units
Kent State +21 Win +1 Unit[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#000000! important][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#000000! important]Just wanted to repost yesterday's record, b/c for some reason it added some extra words and stuff that made it more difficult to read. Adam thanks for the support. Understand that I'm constantly looking for additional angles to enhance the accuracy of my system. GL and enjoy the NFL games today!!! [/COLOR]

[AdamL2424]

No prob knuck keep the wins coming!!

[TheKnuckleballer]

Overall Record (11-8) +1.8 Units
Top Plays (4-4) -.8 Units
Regular Plays (7-4) +2.6 Units

Last weekend was tough. The weekday games went well, but the success game to an abrupt halt when Saturday rolled around. Fortunately, it's a long season, and I don't expect many Saturdays like the last one. I've moved on, and I'm ready to pick some winners this week. GL and I have one regular play for tonight that looks pretty solid!!

*Regular Pick* (1 Unit)
MTSU +7

[TheKnuckleballer]

Overall Record (11-9) +.7 Units
Top Plays (4-4) -.8 Units
Regular Plays (7-5) +1.5 Units

Tonight is the start to a great weekend of football!! The original line is correct on this one. The line moves solely b/c the public is on Nevada. Take the points and enjoy the victory. Don't touch the total. The total is correct. GL!!!

*Regular Play* (1 Unit)
LA Tech +10.5

[TheKnuckleballer]

Friday (0-1) -1.1 Units
Overall Record (11-10) -.4 Units
Top Plays (4-4) -.8 Units
Regular Plays (7-6) +.4 Units

*Regular Play* (1 Unit)
LA Tech +10.5 Loss -1.1 Units

As you have seen, I have been ice cold since last Saturday, but that is no reason to panic. I'm in it for the long haul, and I fully expect to see this streak turn around at any moment. As I always say, this is a marathon not a sprint. Below are tomorrows play. GL and enjoy the football!!!

**Top Plays** (2 Units)
Tennessee -1.5
UCLA +3.5

*Regular Plays* (1 Unit)
Boston College +14 (buy the point or half point if necessary)
Syracuse +10
Wisconsin +16

(Roll Tide!!)

[TheKnuckleballer]

Thus far, today has been terrible. Wisconsin dominated the game and had an opportunity to cover, but the coach made what was in my mind a questionable decision. Down by 18 w/ 4th and Goal from the 15 he chose to go for a TD rather than a Field Goal. Why?? As for my two morning losses, it's tough to account for that level of poor play. To say the least, today has been very frustrating. Here are two plays that have developed over the day due to line movement, etc... I really like Air Force to keep this game close. In fact, I I think there is a good chance that Air Force pulls the upset in this position. GL and keep following!! As I have already said, I'm not going anywhere.

Added Picks:

**Top Plays** (2 Units)
Air Force +10

*Regular Plays* (1 Unit)
BYU/UNLV Under 64

[TheKnuckleballer]

Overall Record (13-15) -3 Units
Top Plays (6-5) +1 Unit
Regular Plays (7-10) -4 Units

**Top Plays** (2 Units)
Tennessee -1.5 Win +2 Units
UCLA +3.5 Loss -2.2 Units
Air Force +10 Win +2 Units

*Regular Plays* (1 Unit)
Boston College +14 Loss -1.1 Units
Syracuse +10 Loss -1.1 Units
Wisconsin +16 Loss -1.1 Units
BYU/UNLV Under 64 Loss -1.1 Units

[TheKnuckleballer]

Overall Record (13-15) -3 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-0)
**2 Unit Picks** (6-5) +1 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (7-10) -4 Units

I have one total tonight that I believe is being overlooked and improperly bet down due to heavy rain. UL Monroe has a synthetic field that drains well, which should bode well for a high scoring affair. I have this total at 59 and the downward line movement makes the Over a play. Also, starting tonight I will be changing my money management strategy. It has become obvious to me that I need to move to a unit based system that allows me the flexibility to bet more than 2 Units on my strongest plays. Thus, I will be moving to a 1 to 5 Unit system. This means that for recordkeeping purposes my Regular Plays will be recorded as 1 Unit Picks and my Top Plays will be recorded as 2 Unit Picks. Going forward this will allow me to better exploit lines that are way off. Don't expect to see many 3, 4, and 5 Unit Plays, but I will have the option if an opportunity presents itself. GL and get ready for a big week!! I have had tomorrows game highlighted for a long time!!!

**2 Unit Pick**
Ark. State/UL Monroe Over 51

(Points! Points! Points!)

[AdamL2424]

GL knuck

[TheKnuckleballer]

Overall Record (13-16) -5.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-0)
**2 Unit Picks** (6-6) -1.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (7-10) -4 Units

Adam, thanks for the support. GL this week!!

Tonight, I have my largest play of the season. I have waited for this game for quite some time now. I truly believe that Tulsa has a good chance to win this game. I am slightly concerned about their ability to protect Kinne. This is an opportunity to pick up a much needed victory. GL and enjoy!!

****4 Unit Pick****
Tulsa +9

[TheKnuckleballer]

Last Night (1-0) +4 Units
Overall Record (14-16) -1.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Picks**** (1-0) +4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-0)
**2 Unit Picks** (6-6) -1.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (7-10) -4 Units

Last night was a big step in the right direction. My system has produced another big play for tonight with a high probability of winning. I have this game capped at -7 in favor of South Florida. Home field advantage should account for about 6 points tonight. In addition, after evaluating line movement and public betting percentages it obvious that the "squares" are taking Top 10 Cinci in this matchup. Does that alone mean that USF will cover? The answer is "No!", but that combined with my mathematical model and key situational and statistical analysis means that they have a high probability of winning and covering. GL and enjoy the 3 Unit Winner!!!

***3 Unit Pick***
USF '+2

(Go BULLS!!!)

[TheKnuckleballer]

Last Night (0-1) -3.3 Units
Overall Record (14-17) -4.5 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Picks**** (1-0) +4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-1) -3.3
**2 Unit Picks** (6-6) -1.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (7-10) -4 Units

Nothing I can say about last night except that Cinci is the better team. They pulled away even after Pike left the game. You can't win them all. Tonight, I have a small 1 Unit play to get the weekend kicked off. I have this game capped as Rutgers edging out Pitt for the victory. Home field advantage should play a big roll in this game tonight. GL and enjoy the win tonight!!!

*1 Unit Pick*
Rutgers +6.5

[TheKnuckleballer]

Last Night (0-1) -1.1 Units
Overall Record (14-18) -5.6 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Picks**** (1-0) +4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-1) -3.3
**2 Unit Picks** (6-6) -1.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (7-11) -5.1 Units

I keep saying this is a marathon not a sprint, but there comes a point when you just have to win. Today is that day. I have my early picks capped, and there are some plays I really like. My top play for the morning is Vandy at +7.5. Their defense is underated. This line is wrong!! Public perception is playing a major role in this line. People have this perception that Vandy is an easy game, while people seem to think that this a Georgia team of years past. With more than 70% of the public on Georgia, I love this pick. Look for Georgia to get upset and Richt to get run out of Athens. GL and watch for my afternoon picks!!

***3 Unit Picks***
Vandy +7.5

**2 Unit Picks**
MTSU +4.5
Notre Dame +10

*1 Unit Picks*
Northwestern +14
Iowa +3

(Carpe Diem!!)

[Goodfella10]

Like Vandy and MTSU. Best of luck today.

[TheKnuckleballer]

Afternoon Games:

***3 Unit Picks***
Utah State '+7.5

**2 Unit Picks**
Nebraska -10.5
UCLA +3.5

*1 Unit Picks*
Minnesota +17
Boston College -2

[TheKnuckleballer]

Tonight's Games:

***3 Unit Picks***
UCF +13

**2 Unit Picks**
Indiana +3

[TheKnuckleballer]

Late Night Games:

**2 Unit Picks**
Mizzou +7
UNLV +15

[TheKnuckleballer]

*****Big Pac-10 Winner*****
This is my largest pick of the season. It should cap off a long day of ups and downs with a nice 5 Unit Winner. Arizona State's defense is very stingy. This is a "sharp" play with heavy line movement in favor of the Sundevils. The game will be on Locker's shoulders due to the Sundevil's ability to shut down the run game. Allowing just under 50 yards per game rushing. The Huskies have failed to get it done on the road this season, and I don't think tonight will be any different. This stingy D will shut down this overated Washington team. People forget that this team did not win a game last year. Yes they upset USC, but that was an upset. It doesn't mean they are an elite college footballl team. Enjoy the big WINNER!!!! GL!!!!

*****5 Unit Pick*****
Arizona State -6.5

[TheKnuckleballer]

Last Saturday (7-8) -3.7 Units
Overall Record (21-26) -9.3 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0) +5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (1-0) +4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (1-3) -6.9
**2 Unit Picks** (8-11) -8.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (10-12) -3.2 Units

So far, this has been embarrasing, but unlike many cappers that hide when they are on a cold streak, I'm still here. I am confident in my system and its ability to pick winners on a long term, continual basis. To the doubters, just keep following until the end of the season. To the believers, thanks for the support. I encourage everyone to check out my NFL thread as well. I went 4-1 last week hitting my ***3 Unit Pick*** with the Texans. I have capped this weeks college football games and will have the picks to you soon. GL this weekend!!

[TheKnuckleballer]

Below are Saturday's winning picks. I love the Ole Miss game tomorrow morning. This game sets up perfect for a nice double digit victory for the Rebels. I have this game capped at Ole Miss -12. Arkansas has played 4 of their last 5 games on the road. Ole Miss is allowing just 13 PPG. Also, I believe a key stat is that Arkansas is only converting 27% of their 3rd Downs this season. Look for Arkansas to be tired and Ole Miss to have their way with this Razorback team after a tough loss last week to Florida. Much of the attention this week has been on last weeks questionable officiating, which may prove to be a distraction. Great game for the Razorbacks last week, but Ole Miss gets a 10+ victory tomorrow in Oxford. GL and enjoy the winners!!!

****4 Unit Picks****
Ole Miss -6.5

***3 Unit Picks***
USF '+6.5
Kansas State -4.5

**2 Unit Picks**
Minnesota +16
Iowa State +20
Kansas +7.5
Air Force +9.5
Vandy +13.5
Arizona State +6.5

*1 Unit Picks*
Duke -4
Navy +2.5
Idaho +15.5
Washington State +35.5
Mississippi State +22.5
Oregon State +21