[Serbone]

This is MY year!

3* Nevada + 8.5
MWC is much stronger than advertised, Pac 12 is much weaker. AZ undersized and banged up on "D". Getting 8.5 with a great running game always a good wager. Cold + altitude helps Nevada vs. sun boys from AZ.
4* Utah State - 10.5
WAC is superior to MAC. This is WAC champ vs # 3-5 team in MAC. Toledo QB and RB banged up. Utah State has strong "D", Toledo "D" is terrible (# 107) even against inferior MAC competition. Toledo has to travel to hostile NW site, Utah St. will have more familiarity, been there before, and more fans. Utah St. lost heartbreaker, same bowl, last yr, wants to make amends. Also going for win and defend their Top 25 national rankings. Blowout.


(Ratings 1*-5*, one 6* GOY later)

[Night-Tripper]

This is MY year!

3* Nevada + 8.5
MWC is much stronger than advertised, Pac 12 is much weaker. AZ undersized and banged up on "D". Getting 8.5 with a great running game always a good wager. Cold + altitude helps Nevada vs. sun boys from AZ.
4* Utah State - 10.5
WAC is superior to MAC. This is WAC champ vs # 3-5 team in MAC. Toledo QB and RB banged up. Utah State has strong "D", Toledo "D" is terrible (# 107) even against inferior MAC competition. Toledo has to travel to hostile NW site, Utah St. will have more familiarity, been there before, and more fans. Utah St. lost heartbreaker, same bowl, last yr, wants to make amends. Also going for win and defend their Top 25 national rankings. Blowout.


(Ratings 1*-5*, one 6* GOY later)

Good to see you back. With ya on Nevada, but I'm on the Rockets in the second game.

[Serbone]

Good to see you back. With ya on Nevada, but I'm on the Rockets in the second game.

HA, yes back again, you are a good capper.
Good start with Nevada!
I was worried Utah State, won the WAC, disappointed to play a top-middle MAC team, and would not be fired up. 7-6 so far, they are not jacked up, but a long way to go.

[Serbone]

2-0, + 7*

2* BYU - 3
A FG is a lot of points in a defensive battle. AND I do not like going against a virtual home team (game is in SD), a MWC team and a warm weather team against a cold weather team. But BYU looks good in other areas. BYU played a stronger schedule (# 55 vs 91 Sagarin) and was a bit unlucky, some bad breaks and bad calls, for example nipped by #1 ND in South Bend 17-14 and lost at Boise 7-6. (SDST beat Boise without a TD on "O"). BYU is built to stop the run, an outstanding front 7, and SDST is a run first team for sure, SDST is # 108 in NCAA in passing, going with their # 2 QB since mid season due to injury. Their # 2 RB is out so they will have to rely on #1 RB who should be worn down in the end. This does not bode well for SDST. It might take awhile but I see SDST getting behind and with a tired RB trying to pass and failing. Meanwhile BYU has a balanced offense and will put some points on the board against a good SDST defense.


4* Central Florida - 7
This "star rating" could change with Ball State's final gametime QB status... at this point all 3 potentially might start/play. # 1 Wenning can pass, had ankle surgery but may not play. # 2 Page cannot pass, had a concussion last game and might not play. # 3 Kamman is a walk-on freshman... if he starts make this 5*. If Wenning or Page start/play, IMO they will not be 100% effective. MAC's Ball State is happy to be there, CUSA's UCF is not too thrilled after losing the championship game, but the MAC is inferior, the Ball State "D" is weak, # 104 in NCAA and I think the UCF players will react well in a virtual home game, in St. Pete FLA, with a lot of fans. And I like the warm weather team against a cold weather team. And I like UCF "moving up" to the Big East, they are going to want to look good after losing the OT heartbreaker in CUSA Championship game to Tulsa. Excellent bruising but explosive UCF RB Murray will get 5 yards a pop, break a few long ones. If Wenning does not play UCF athletes will smother a one dimentional MAC team. UCF coach O'Leary is top notch, will keep the players focused.

[Serbone]

2-0, + 7*

2* BYU - 3
A FG is a lot of points in a defensive battle. AND I do not like going against a virtual home team (game is in SD), a MWC team and a warm weather team against a cold weather team. But BYU looks good in other areas. BYU played a stronger schedule (# 55 vs 91 Sagarin) and was a bit unlucky, some bad breaks and bad calls, for example nipped by #1 ND in South Bend 17-14 and lost at Boise 7-6. (SDST beat Boise without a TD on "O"). BYU is built to stop the run, an outstanding front 7, and SDST is a run first team for sure, SDST is # 108 in NCAA in passing, going with their # 2 QB since mid season due to injury. Their # 2 RB is out so they will have to rely on #1 RB who should be worn down in the end. This does not bode well for SDST. It might take awhile but I see SDST getting behind and with a tired RB trying to pass and failing. Meanwhile BYU has a balanced offense and will put some points on the board against a good SDST defense.


4* Central Florida - 7
This "star rating" could change with Ball State's final gametime QB status... at this point all 3 potentially might start/play. # 1 Wenning can pass, had ankle surgery but may not play. # 2 Page cannot pass, had a concussion last game and might not play. # 3 Kamman is a walk-on freshman... if he starts make this 5*. If Wenning or Page start/play, IMO they will not be 100% effective. MAC's Ball State is happy to be there, CUSA's UCF is not too thrilled after losing the championship game, but the MAC is inferior, the Ball State "D" is weak, # 104 in NCAA and I think the UCF players will react well in a virtual home game, in St. Pete FLA, with a lot of fans. And I like the warm weather team against a cold weather team. And I like UCF "moving up" to the Big East, they are going to want to look good after losing the OT heartbreaker in CUSA Championship game to Tulsa. Excellent bruising but explosive UCF RB Murray will get 5 yards a pop, break a few long ones. If Wenning does not play UCF athletes will smother a one dimentional MAC team. UCF coach O'Leary is top notch, will keep the players focused.

3-0 + 9*


As stated, BYU played tougher opponents, were unlucky in several tight game, tought BYU "D" is built to stop the run, the lone SDST RB wore down and they had NO passing game (# 108) to get back in the game.

UCF will stay 4* unless # 3 QB starts for Ball State, then it goes to 5*. UCF outclasses Ball State, Ball State "D" is weak, slow but sure UCF will pull away and cover.

[brewcrew2k]

Great work

[turbozed]

3-0 + 9*


As stated, BYU played tougher opponents, were unlucky in several tight game, tought BYU "D" is built to stop the run, the lone SDST RB wore down and they had NO passing game (# 108) to get back in the game.

UCF will stay 4* unless # 3 QB starts for Ball State, then it goes to 5*. UCF outclasses Ball State, Ball State "D" is weak, slow but sure UCF will pull away and cover.

Ball State has been playing some better offensive teams like No Ill and Toledo so they're going to give up more yards. MAC appears to be a better conference this year than CUSA. Also, Ball State's running game can be pretty decent when they get it going. I dunno, they seem pretty evenly matched.

[Serbone]

Ball State has been playing some better offensive teams like No Ill and Toledo so they're going to give up more yards. MAC appears to be a better conference this year than CUSA. Also, Ball State's running game can be pretty decent when they get it going. I dunno, they seem pretty evenly matched.

Well, Ball State is still # 104 total "D", and most of that is vs weak MAC. I go by conferences a lot in early 1/2 of bowl seasons.
The MAC is 3-10 as dogs 7 or greater last 13 bowl games... CUSA is a good favorite in bowls, I think 26-7 lately.
I do worry about UCF not being "up" whereas this is huge for Ball State. Ball State will play up tempo "O" and could catch UCF flat footed for awhile, but O'Leary is a good coach and I think the UCF "D" athletes are better than the MAC players.
We shall see but I still like UCF 4*.

[ndirishfan]

Well looks like so far we have the same picks in the bowls. Only dif is I through in the sam houston state game too. Here is to us cleanin house and rapin the books...UCF UCF UCF

[Serbone]

(QUOTE=ndirishfan;17204504]Well looks like so far we have the same picks in the bowls. Only dif is I through in the sam houston state game too. Here is to us cleanin house and rapin the books...UCF UCF UCF)

Good luck to you... same picks so far.
Looking at your avatar, I doubt we will have the same pick in BCS Championship game... might change but I lean to Alabama at this point.
In my heart, cheering for ND, but might bet on goddam 'Bama. Still deciding, though.

[Serbone]

2* UL Lafayette

Home southern team in bowl game. On artificial turf, to UL Lafayette's advantage.
The NO Superdome will be rockin!
Not impressed... EC beat 7 teams < .500, though overall SOS of these teams were pretty much equal, I am going with the team that stayed with SEC giant Florida (20-27 @ Florida) and still has a lot to prove... 2nd ever bowl game, chip on their shoulders, still.
Sun Belt teams are better than you think.

[Night-Tripper]

Well, Ball State is still # 104 total "D", and most of that is vs weak MAC. I go by conferences a lot in early 1/2 of bowl seasons.
The MAC is 3-10 as dogs 7 or greater last 13 bowl games... CUSA is a good favorite in bowls, I think 26-7 lately.
I do worry about UCF not being "up" whereas this is huge for Ball State. Ball State will play up tempo "O" and could catch UCF flat footed for awhile, but O'Leary is a good coach and I think the UCF "D" athletes are better than the MAC players.
We shall see but I still like UCF 4*.

Was with ya on he Mormons last night and played the Golden Knights earlier in the week. You were damn sure smarter than me when it came to the Rocket/Aggie game last weekend.

I see that you're on ULL... I'm liking the Pirates and Huskies tomorrow.

[turbozed]

Well, Ball State is still # 104 total "D", and most of that is vs weak MAC. I go by conferences a lot in early 1/2 of bowl seasons.
The MAC is 3-10 as dogs 7 or greater last 13 bowl games... CUSA is a good favorite in bowls, I think 26-7 lately.
I do worry about UCF not being "up" whereas this is huge for Ball State. Ball State will play up tempo "O" and could catch UCF flat footed for awhile, but O'Leary is a good coach and I think the UCF "D" athletes are better than the MAC players.
We shall see but I still like UCF 4*.

Thanks for the reply. I have seen a lot of MAC football (sign of a degen) but less so CUSA teams. I guess the point of these bowl games is to see how these conferences do against each other. Just based on the eye test, the MAC teams don't seem so terrible this year and CUSA looks significantly worse. I have a bet on Ball st and some on the team total over so I hope you're wrong (respectfully of course).

[Serbone]

OK!
You like the MAC + 7? Fair enough.
I still like UCF, & CUSA vs the MAC / Ball Sate, UCF IMO was unlucky & lost in OT to a good Tulsa team in the CUSA Championship compared to a team that did not make the MAC Championship. Plus my other reasons previously stated.
We shall see...

[Serbone]

Was with ya on he Mormons last night and played the Golden Knights earlier in the week. You were damn sure smarter than me when it came to the Rocket/Aggie game last weekend.

I see that you're on ULL... I'm liking the Pirates and Huskies tomorrow.

RE: Huskies, I think The Pac 12 is overrated except for Oregon & Stanford (with new QB last 5 games or so)... but I am worried about Boise's lack of "O" to lay 5 1/2; still deciding on that game.

[turbozed]

OK!
You like the MAC + 7? Fair enough.
I still like UCF, & CUSA vs the MAC / Ball Sate, UCF IMO was unlucky & lost in OT to a good Tulsa team in the CUSA Championship compared to a team that did not make the MAC Championship. Plus my other reasons previously stated.
We shall see...

Looks like you're ahead so far. Ball St seems like they can move the ball on the ground but are stubbornly sticking with more passing plays. Still a lot of game to go!

[Night-Tripper]

RE: Huskies, I think The Pac 12 is overrated except for Oregon & Stanford (with new QB last 5 games or so)... but I am worried about Boise's lack of "O" to lay 5 1/2; still deciding on that game.

In no way am I drinking the Pac-12 Kool-Aid... I'm simply fading the Boise State offense.

[Night-Tripper]

OK!
You like the MAC + 7? Fair enough.
I still like UCF, & CUSA vs the MAC / Ball Sate, UCF IMO was unlucky & lost in OT to a good Tulsa team in the CUSA Championship compared to a team that did not make the MAC Championship. Plus my other reasons previously stated.
We shall see...

[Serbone]

In no way am I drinking the Pac-12 Kool-Aid... I'm simply fading the Boise State offense.

Agree with your thoughts.. again not sure of this one... some I have circled but this one is a bitch. Will go light either way.

What I am saying is you have the # 6 - 7 - whatever Pac 12 team against a team that three way tied for the MWC.

Again, I respect a healthy Oregon and Stanford, but the rest of the Pac 12 to me is not so strong. But Huskies beat SD St early when SD St had their # 1 QB, and Huskies beat Stanford, though I think that was before Stanford went with the new QB.

Again, light. No 5* on this one.

[turbozed]

Good call. Looks like I'm going to be paying attention to this thread so I don't lose any more money lol.

[Serbone]

Good call. Looks like I'm going to be paying attention to this thread so I don't lose any more money lol.

Well, tomorrow I am going light, already 2* on UL Lafayette... waffling on Boise, thinking of the pts with Washington, a game I really do nto like... either way it will be 1*. Hey, might pass. Like some games next week, though.

[Night-Tripper]

Well, tomorrow I am going light, already 2* on UL Lafayette... waffling on Boise, thinking of the pts with Washington, a game I really do nto like... either way it will be 1*. Hey, might pass. Like some games next week, though.

Treading lightly myself, one unit on each puppy plus the points as well as one unit on both moneylines. Low risk with a shot at a decent reward.

[Serbone]

Treading lightly myself, one unit on each puppy plus the points as well as one unit on both moneylines. Low risk with a shot at a decent reward.

Yes, that is the key. Smart wagers here and there, jump on ones big only when a LOT seems to be attractive to one side. And every game you can make an argument for either side. The key is to know which ones hold water. I hate some of the cappers with stupid trends. SOME trends matter, some are irrelevant. Oh well, I am done. I like conference matchups early in the bowl season, so I will probably go 1* Boise and hide. Good luck.

[Serbone]

4-0 + 13*

Previously posted 2* UL Lafayette now - 6 1/2

2* Boise State - 5

I usually go with a lot of dogs early in the bowl season, but my handicapping keeps coming up with favorites (other than Nevada) so far. Here I am going against Washington, what, the 6th or 7th best team in the (IMO) overrated Pac-12 with Boise, that three way tied for/won the MWC. Sagarin has Washington as playing the 19th toughest schedule, well getting pounded by LSU 41-3 helps your SOS but is not good handicapping material. And Sagarin completely overrates the Pac 12. Is he from that area? MWC teams tend to do better ATS in bowl games, Pac-12 tend to do poorer. I understand what has happened thus far in the bowl season with Nevada-Arizona & SD St. Very complex. Sure, nice regular season wins for Washington against SD St, Oregon State, and Stanford though it was before the Stanford QB change, but some ugly losses, too. Boise's "O" has been much maligend but the new QB is developing. They will pound the ball with a strong running game and rely on their outstanding "D" that should force some turnovers... they are strong against the pass... they have done well so far this yr getting turnovers that change the game. Also, Boise is familiar with the surroundings, 3rd yr in a row at this bowl... to me, that is an advantage. They had no real hopes for a BCS bowl, are not disappointed but are buiding for next year; I like the winning tradition Boise coaching brings to the table and they will be focused... hell, to boot, they are negotiating to get BACK to the MWC after committing to the falling-apart-faster-than-your-old-lady Big East, a win could help them leverage the financial piece.

[turbozed]

Rolling with you on LA-LA just based on conference matchup again. Still thinking CUSA is the bottom of the barrel in terms of talent. SBC on the other hand has stepped it up to another level (cashed nicely on a few SBC teams playing out of conference this year). Good luck

[rake922]

[Serbone]

5-0 + 15*

UL Lafayette = fortunate to cover the 6 1/2. What a mess. I will take it, though.

A key is you ask yourself after the game, who would you take if they played again, and I WOULD take UL Lafayette given the two choices. But would not be enthusiastic.

[turbozed]

Never in doubt. LOL

[Serbone]

5-1 + 12.8 stars.

There goes the run.
Too many points but could have gone either way.
If they played again, I would take Washington + 5 next time... surprised how well they ran the ball vs. Boise.

[Night-Tripper]

5-1 + 12.8 stars.

There goes the run.
Too many points but could have gone either way.
If they played again, I would take Washington + 5 next time... surprised how well they ran the ball vs. Boise.

You're still having a nice run...

[lesterdymond]

What are you thinking for Xmas eve in Hawaii serbone?

Is Fresno state to easy here?

[Serbone]

5-1 + 12.8*

3* Fresno State -12 1/2
(note: edited at 5:10 CST from 2* to 3* and line changed from 11 1/2 to 12 1/2)

The Hawaii Bowl is always risky. Will a team consider it a "vacation" in paradise and lose focus? Or will the coach keep the team in line and play hard wire to wire?

I like June Jones but he struggled to get SMU (what, a top 75 or 80 team?) in a bowl at 6-6. Sure, he beat a good Tulsa team for his 6th win, but SMU was at home and they needed the win for a bowl bid and Tulsa was in a huge, huge significant sandwich, having clinched their CUSA division the week before and was looking ahead for it's showdown with UCF in the Conference USA Championship game the next week. Tulsa outgained SMU at SMU 591-305, but SMU enjoyed + 3 turnovers. SO that was their only quality win, and it is tarnished IMO. They got pounded at Baylor 24-59, A&M 3-48, lost at home to TCU 16-24 (all understandable), but lost at Tulane (not good), were crushed at UCF 17-42 and lost to Rice. SOS was OK (# 87 Sagarin) since played those excellent out of conference teams. And they played in CUSA, which is not as competitive as Fresno's MWC, and I am not impressed by what they did within CUSA. Again, early in the bowl season I like conference matchups, so we are looking at the MWC Co-Champ vs. an also ran in CUSA.

9-3 Fresno (what, a top 30-35 team?) was 10-1 ATS, lost at Oregon 25-42, at Tulsa 26-27, and at Boise 10-20. They beat a good SD St team 52-40 (I think when SD St. had its # 1 QB), at Nevada 52-36 (so they beat a strong running team) and Air Force 48-15; plus they had no embarrasing losses, and played in the more competitive MWC, they "three way tied" at 7-1 for The MWC Championship with Boise and SD St.

SMU pass "D" is # 108 but better than that, some of it is having faced Baylor, A&M, Tulsa, UCF, even Houston, all excellent passing teams. SMU is facing a strong 40 ppg, 488 ypg offense led by excellent 68%, 3,700+ yd passer QB Derek Carr (brother of former NFL QB), and SMU is missing 2 db's from it's optimal starting lineup. Carr has some excellent WR's and backs to support him. Fresno State's passing "D" is # 4, overall "D" is # 19, and they played Oregon, Tulsa, Nevada, some pretty good "O"'s. Fresno tends to be able to force turnovers on "D". SMU has an excellent RB, Line, and Fresno may have trouble stopping him. Getting those points and being able to run can really help a dog cover. But if SMU gets behind, they will rely more on QB Gilbert (Texas transfer) who has been hot and cold but has ability. He will be throwing into a hard hitting, excellent pass "D", 20 INT's, though.

It is on artificial turf, SMU's home type turf, as opposed to Fresno's home natural grass. Hard to say, but in this spot it may not be an advantage for SMU, it might actually help the somewhat faster Fresno athletes if they can adjust their angles and cuts. The weather is supposed to be OK, 50's, only 7 mph winds, so passing will be mostly unaffected. It might rain late in the game... but in Hawaii, who TF knows? Another reason to be cautious, I will wait for game time and adjust my wager a tad. But either way, Fresno.

I am aware that first yr coaches ATS in bowls do not do well, but I think DeRuyter (from A&M was DC so coached against SMU & June Jones "O") is up and coming and ambitious and will not treat this as a vacation, but as a building block for next year and be all over the kids... "play hard for the seniors, and those of you coming back play hard to impress me for next year or else". Sure, we all know June Jones came in and pounded Nevada (who had a decent QB, whats-his-name?) in Hawaii a few yrs ago, do not fall for that hype, Nevada had issues, was distracted, a mess, and SMU was on the rise at the time and June Jones wanted to make a statement back in Hawaii where he previously coached, and wanted the attention to the SMU program he had just taken over and brought back to life. It was a huge game for SMU, historically, back then. And they frankly had a better team back then... so I am going with Fresno as being the more coach motivated team this time.

So I am taking another favorite, I know, it seems a little obvious and I am not entirely impressed with Fresno State. And trust me, I am not a chalk player, I will almost certainly have some 4* and 5* dogs later... they are circled at this point... TBD... but this one, again, handicaps to a favorite, so going with big favorite early in the bowl season, in goddam Hawaii, against some fundamentals.



(note: later in the bowl season I will not always provide thorough / complete write-ups, just showing that I do my homework and think a little differently in some areas of handicapping; as opposed to those posters who lob out "lock" teams all the time with NO writeups or anything significant... what is the point?)

[Serbone]

4* Western Kentucky - 5 1/2

Just loaded up on them.

3 (including WR's # 1 Davis & # 3 Williams) just suspened for Central Michigan, liked Sun Belt squad anyway indoors vs 6-6 MAC team, no home field they will not have many followers. More write up later. Line will go to 7 or so IMO. Central Michigan is weak now missing key WR's, will enable WKy to load the box against the run.

[Serbone]

5-2 + 9.5*

Said "Aloha" to my money.
Doors blown off.
SMU by 33.
Well, they came to play, the sterotype disrespected bowl double digit dog and the disinterested double digit favorite that did not show up.
That's what I get for upgrading it from 2* to 3*.
Reports were that Fresno was there to play... but you cannot know unless you are truly there (Houston Texans were in New England a few weeks ago, their coach stated it was the biggest game in Texans history... they got blown out.)

[bruce819]

Following your picks and appreciate your run thusfar. The injuries have this one off the board at most books. Out of fairness, I don't think you should count this one unless it's put back up.

4* Western Kentucky - 5 1/2

Just loaded up on them.

3 (including WR's # 1 Davis & # 3 Williams) just suspened for Central Michigan, liked Sun Belt squad anyway indoors vs 6-6 MAC team, no home field they will not have many followers. More write up later. Line will go to 7 or so IMO. Central Michigan is weak now missing key WR's, will enable WKy to load the box against the run.