1. #36
    southpaw74
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    Quote Originally Posted by bruce819 View Post
    Following your picks and appreciate your run thusfar. The injuries have this one off the board at most books. Out of fairness, I don't think you should count this one unless it's put back up.
    its currently up at -6 at 5Dimes and dsi so I don't see why it shouldn't count

  2. #37
    Serbone
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    Quote Originally Posted by bruce819 View Post
    Following your picks and appreciate your run thusfar. The injuries have this one off the board at most books. Out of fairness, I don't think you should count this one unless it's put back up.
    ? OF COURSE the books will put this up... ALWAYS. HA.

    Western KY is now at 6 at most books and 5 1/2 at some.

    I advised all to take at 5 1/2 yesterday early evening during the first half of The Hawaii Bowl.

    I think when more people realize that 2 of Central Michigan's top 3 WR's are out it will drive the line up to 6 1/2 or - 7. I liked them as 2-3* before the the suspensions, 6-6 MAC Conference C Michigan is terrible, their last 4 wins were against pathetic, injured teams.

    The Sun Belt Conference is not that bad in this spot and Western Kentucky had some good wins. More later. Take them as 4* at -5 1/2 or -6.

    We shall see.

  3. #38
    Serbone
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    Quote Originally Posted by Serbone View Post
    4* Western Kentucky - 5 1/2

    Just loaded up on them.

    3 (including WR's # 1 Davis & # 3 Williams) just suspened for Central Michigan, liked Sun Belt squad anyway indoors vs 6-6 MAC team, no home field they will not have many followers. More write up later. Line will go to 7 or so IMO. Central Michigan is weak now missing key WR's, will enable WKy to load the box against the run.
    5-2 + 9.5*

    Sticking with 4* Western Kentucky - 6 1/2

    I advised all to jump on WKy at - 5 1/2 when I heard during the SMU-Fresno debacle that the # 1 and # 3 WR's were suspended for Central Michigan; cripples their already weak passing game. If it goes to - 7 1/2, make it 3*. I still see Central Michigan as a pretty bad 6-6 MAC team that did not even beat a MAC bowl bound team and struggled to win it's last 4 against terrible teams (U Mass!) whereas Western Kentucky played in a better conference (The Sun Belt) and beat some decent teams (Ark State); much bettter "D", motivated by its first bowl game ever and loaded with seniors who want to win the game. Sure, WKy lost their coach but their DC did this before, head coached a team in a bowl game and won. And the new WKy head coach Petrino will be watching.

    I usually like a close-to-home bowl team but who TF will come to cheer Central Michigan to beat Western Kentucky on Christmas break? If Central scores, do not expect loud cheering, the place will be empty. WKy can run and throw. I think the indoors environment will help a favorite with a better "O" cover a spread of 6 1/2 or so. W Ky should get into the mid 30's at least... maybe 40+.

    So a team from a better conference, a good "D" against an already weak "O" that will be hurt by the loss of WR's, a team that can throw (5th yr QB Jakes) with a powerful run game (RB Jakes 6th in NCAA) against a poor MAC "D" that cannot stop the run (200+ ypg), (always a huge plus to have a strong running game when you are a favorite, laying 6 or greater pts) and a WKY team striving to win it's first ever bowl game. WKy had some good wins in tougher schedule; Central Michigan lucky as hell to be there. I do not think we will suffer the Fresno type of situation, W Ky wants this win. Blowout.



    (again, most bowls I will not provide extensive write ups... and some might be posted closer to game time... and, yep, I have some underdogs circled for the next couple of days)
    Last edited by Serbone; 12-26-12 at 05:32 PM.
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  4. #39
    southpaw74
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    Poor performance by western. At least they never looked good enough so it wasnt a bad beat

  5. #40
    Serbone
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    Quote Originally Posted by southpaw74 View Post
    Poor performance by western. At least they never looked good enough so it wasnt a bad beat
    Agree, WKY did not play well, outcoached; played 8 in the box assumed (like I did) Central Michigan would try to run all night with 2 key WR's out... so Central Michigan throws for 200+ yrs in first half to scrub WR's, they looked like Air Coryell.

    Meanwhile WKY plodded, ran, conservative, 1st half too many 3 and outs, overall did not throw enough to exploit CM "D"...

    Crazy plays & calls & reversals & blocked kicks both ways, too many to list. WKY dropped INT-pick 6 opportunity drove me wild. But so many big plays and calls and freak occurances that either side of the bet, you cannot say you got screwed, it evened out.

    Shit.
    Last edited by Serbone; 12-27-12 at 08:00 AM.

  6. #41
    Serbone
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    5-3 + 5.1*


    2* Bowling Green + 7 1/2
    west coast finesse WAC team San Jose State 10-2 will not be up for boring cold weather site bowl game vs. 8-4 MAC BG, its a long trip to cold DC, a 3 hr time zone game, hard to organzie and motivate and focus without a head coach and the whole staff probably lame duck (MacIntyre gone) cold weather in higher 30s + 20 mph wind gusts will hurt SJ State finesse passing, BG has decent "D" will want to win, big game for them, keep it close, play conservative, grind the ball on "O", eat the clock. Take BG the cold weather motivated team with decent "D" and the points.
    3* Duke + 9 1/2
    Passing dog 6-6 ACC Duke banged up in last 4, ran into buzz saws Fla St, Clemson, GT, Miami, now fresh and healthier. 9-3 artificial turf team Cincy (also no head coach, will be disorganized, lack focus) is on natural turf and has not done well against quality passers like pro prospect, smart Duke QB Renfree and his three strong WR's. Cincy tied for Big East and will not be up for this, and there is a huge close to home advantage for Duke in Charlotte, the first bowl game for them in eons, they will want to win, motivated coach Cutcliffe has been at Duke for 5-6 yrs to turn them around, wants it bad.
    3* UCLA - 3
    Virtual home game for UCLA in SD, on natural turf (7-5 Baylor is an artificial turf team, their finesse passing timing will be off especially with the layoff period), 9-4 UCLA lost two games to top notch team Stanford, once in lame duck final regular season sandwich game (understandable). Top notch RB Franklin for UCLA will pile up yards then late season devloping athletic freshman QB will play action pass or run and burn the weak Baylor "D". Athletic UCLA "D" will cause some TO's, UCLA has the far better "D". Coming off a hearbreaking loss to a high quality Stanford team in the championship game, with a young up and coming squad, there will be no casual approach to this game by UCLA.
    Last edited by Serbone; 12-27-12 at 12:11 AM.

  7. #42
    biggedge
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    Good luck!
    Last edited by biggedge; 12-27-12 at 12:03 AM.

  8. #43
    Serbone
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    Quote Originally Posted by biggedge View Post
    Good luck!



    Well luck has been the key to several bowl games ATS so far... argueably UL Lafayette, Boise, W Ky were all close wild ass games that definitely could have gone either way. Incredibly bad coaching decisions, missed extra points, blocked FG's, pass interference (or not), reversed calls, blocked punts, missed 2 pt conversions, fumbles, dropped passes, dropped INT's, you name it.

    Even the BYU win (though easily covered) was close until two defensive TD's by BYU. Sure, it was known that BYU "D" was outstanding, might get some turnovers, so some credit is deserved. But...

    Generally speaking, if your team covered by 7 or fewer points, you usually should consider it at least partially "luck"... though a 7 pt favorite, winning by 20, other team scores a late TD to make it 13, that is a bit different. So many times, the last team to score a TD, covers. Even a FG.

    Winners think they were smart, losers think they were unlucky.
    Last edited by Serbone; 12-27-12 at 09:12 AM.

  9. #44
    lesterdymond
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    Another triple set tomorrow serbone. Lets get it.

  10. #45
    Serbone
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    5-6 (3.7)*

    3* UL Monroe - 7

    8-4 UL played 7 quality opponents, their only 2 losses in The Sun Belt games came without star QB Browning, so they might have gone 10-2, won the confernce. He is back, played in late regular season games. This is UL's first bowl game ever, they will be pumped up and should have a good following in Louisiana (2 hrs from campus) and I like a close-to-home southern team against a cold weather MAC team in this spot. 7 is a lot to lay with a Sun Belt team and Ohio has a crafty QB and solid RB but Ohio was decimated by injuries mid yr and to boot, then lost 3 starting OL in their last game against Kent State, 2 are OUT and one is questionable for today. They are a run first team and with bad Ohio OL injuries the good athletic UL "D" should thrive. Maybe some turnovers in MY favor this time. Blowout.


    (BG and Duke were epic "bad beats from hell". It comes down to "which "------" fumbles, all too often. And Baylor romped, sure, but UCLA shuttled 3 O lineman early in the game due to injuries so they could not run the ball with Franklin, keep the clock running, away from Baylor, ... completely changed the game dynamics, no way UCLA could play run and gun with Baylor. Shit.)
    Last edited by Serbone; 12-28-12 at 10:28 AM.

  11. #46
    Serbone
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    1* Rutgers + 2

    This should be an ugly defensive struggle... might come down to a FG after "which ------ fumbles". This is the worst VT team in a long time so I think there is value with Rutgers and a few points coming off a tough loss.
    Last edited by Serbone; 12-28-12 at 10:30 AM.

  12. #47
    Tony Truong
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    Good Luck

    Good luck serbone and Happy Holidays to you & your family. !

  13. #48
    steveq
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    ser any take on the under 41 what do you thing thank for posting lots of people dont and like to see you down which i am i took a bad beat

  14. #49
    turbozed
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    Good luck Serb. Rough one yesterday.

    I appreciate the posts and your reasoning. Most people don't spend the time and just post picks, which accomplishes nothing. For the most part, your analysis has been spot on. UCLA injuries is one of the reasons why I played Baylor (those 2 games against Stanny were rough, and the last one UCLA really gave it all their effort). Of course, mentioning to you after the fact is pretty useless as well.

    I agree with your analysis with ULM. Ohio has been overvalued from their win against Penn St for almost the entire season. Evidence for this is that they are 3-8 against the spread since. Ohio has probably the weakest schedule out of all teams that made it to a bowl game. Not only that, but their performance for the second half of the season has been terrible (partly due to playing some decent in-conference teams). They went 1-5 to close out the season. Before that, they squeaked by the bottom of the barrel teams like Buffalo and UMass.

    Supposedly, Ohio will have a few injured players healthy for this game. I don't think it'll make much of a difference. ULM is not only a talented team, but a tough and motivated team. One game that particularly stands out is their win over WKU where they were down 28-7 early and came back to win in OT. With Browning back, they will probably be able to return to their early season prowess, a team that beat Arkansas and played Baylor close.

    I'm thinking this game is a blow-out too. And this basically being a home game, with a motivated fan following, 7 points is not too much to lay in this situation.

  15. #50
    southpaw74
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    Boy I forgot how little statistics mean in these bowl games. Between motivations and crazy coaching decisions in bowls it can really put a wrench in thing when gambling

  16. #51
    turbozed
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    Quote Originally Posted by southpaw74 View Post
    Boy I forgot how little statistics mean in these bowl games. Between motivations and crazy coaching decisions in bowls it can really put a wrench in thing when gambling
    Yeah. Wacky ass bowls. At the very least I was right in predicting it'd be a blowout!

  17. #52
    Serbone
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    2* Texas Tech - 13

    TT is not thrilled to be playing 6-6 boring Minny in Texas, and are without a head coach. BUT they have a superior passing "O", it is indoors, and Minny has not faced anybody even remotely close to TT. Minny also has a below avg "O" so TT will be able to stop them and get their hands on the ball. Minny touted for their passing "D" but did not play passing "O"'s worth a damn in Big 10 and non conference play. So it is an illusion. Motivation is tough but TT lost last 2 to Ok St and Baylor, two tough teams, I like the Big 12 after last nights Baylor showing, and TT will want to get back on track after losses. Touts and others say take the points in a shit game like this, I am laying the big wood.

  18. #53
    brewcrew2k
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    That is a lot of wood to lay for a team with out the head coach. I'm laying off but good luck to you.

  19. #54
    Night-Tripper
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    Quote Originally Posted by brewcrew2k View Post
    That is a lot of wood to lay for a team with out the head coach. I'm laying off but good luck to you.
    Tech has been without a head coach since the Pirate was run off by the Tech administration. There is no love lost for Tuberville... Raiders should roll.

  20. #55
    hydrosmak
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    Tough stretch! Bounce back day.

  21. #56
    Serbone
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    5-9 (10.3*)

    3* Air Force - 2

    I like a military team in a winnable bowl game. Sharp, disciplined kids know how to deal with adversity and execute a game plan. They come to win. I think they take to heart "The Armed Forces Bowl". MWC AF struggled down the stretch, but will be healthy on "O" for the first time in awhile, their coach is experienced, savy in bowl preparation wheras Rice's coach is not. CUSA Rice finished 4-0 to get bowl eligible, is "run first" but balanced, does not pose a strong passing threat to AF with I would fear most, it will be in the low 40's, hurts the passing game a bit.


    (Started 5-0, on terrible 0-9 streak. Sure some bad picks - Fresno, UCLA, UL Monroe - in there but there were some very gut wretching, epic, narrow losses - Boise, Bowling Green, Duke, Rutgers - ... so I will continue with the program. If you think Serbone is going to fold after a little adversity, you "are not aware...")
    Last edited by Serbone; 12-29-12 at 10:09 AM.

  22. #57
    Serbone
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    3* Navy + 14

    Again, military team comes to win. Navy is 7-1 with QB Reynolds; strong ground game. Pac 12 AZ State "D" is vulnerable, they will not be up for Independent Navy. Should be in the 40's, maybe some rain, not optimal for Sun Devil kids. Sure, their new coach Graham is changing the culture... but 14 is too many points, Navy should keep the ball away from AZ State.

    3* Syracuse + 4


    Syracuse QB Nassib is as good as WV's Smith. And the Syracuse "D" is better than the WV "D". Cuse got their act together, finished strong, should have more fans, familiar setting, game is in NY. Cold weather will favor the more physical team IMO that is Syracuse. Take the points. (EDIT: It is snowing like hell I will advise you to change this to 1* or 2* but I will count it as 3* on my record.)
    Last edited by Serbone; 12-29-12 at 12:26 PM.

  23. #58
    shookid
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    it is not snowing like hell nor do i think it snows in hell. i live right over the bridge from the bronx and all we are having is light showers but it is cold.

  24. #59
    Serbone
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    4* Oregon State - 3 1/2

    Texas is a mess, is Mack respected? Do the fans care, are they looking ahead to a new regime, how will they get him out of there? Meanwhile, Oregon State is focused, well balanced, and has a superior QB, indoors, where you can maximize passing. OSU will also pound the ball into Texas's surprisingly weak DL. Texas "O" is struggling, Oregon St has physical front 7 to stop the run, force Texas to throw, and they cannot w/o McCoy especially. I see one team that can move the ball most of the time and another that will not move it consistently.

    3* Michigan State + 2

    Michigan State has been unlucky, lost a lot of close ones, but will break out tonight. POUND the ball with Bell and stop TCU with their strong physical "D". TCU will struggle on "O", though so will Michigan State, but the difference will be Bell and a team playing with something to prove. So many close losses to quality teams. Not tonight.



    (It IS snowing like hell in Yankee Stadium and it DOES snow in hell.)
    Last edited by Serbone; 12-29-12 at 05:30 PM.

  25. #60
    Tony Truong
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    Good luck

    Good luck Serbone ! With Michigan State + 2 tonight !

  26. #61
    Serbone
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    7-12 (15.3)*

    Why didn't Oregon State keep running the ball; were getting 7-8 yards a pop! OSU coach even stated at halftime they needed to run more, could not protect the passer... then he comes out throwing. And why didn't OSU switch QB's, even the foo-foo announcers crossed "the line" and said to yank him.
    And what happened to our proud militaty academy teams? They usually thrive in bowl games, out smart and out hustle their civilian opponents. They folded like cheap lawnchairs.
    Still reeling over the bad beats, Bowling Green and epic fail Duke.
    Will persevere, finally got a comeback cover with Michigan State.
    Last edited by Serbone; 12-30-12 at 04:38 PM.

  27. #62
    Serbone
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    7-12 (15.3)*

    4* Vanderbilit - 7
    8-4 SEC team with virtual home game against 7-5 ACC team without head coach. Vandy has superior "D" and balanced "O", NC St is pass oriented, Vandy pass "D" will be focused, not worried about the run. NC State "D" is weak against the run, Vany will exploit. Vandy has it's most successful senior class ever and will want to go out a winner, celebrate the era... Vandy coach has changed the culture and will NOT let this game go without his team being focused and ready.

    3* Georgia Tech + 7 1/2
    GT always comes to compete and with a strong OL, crafty QB and confusing triple option, against a shakey USC defense that struggles against spread option, though they have not seen a sophisitaced system like this one... GT will attempt to keep the ball away. USC, with a freshman QB and key WR Lee questionable to play, the USC "O" may not be as big a problem as you would think, though GT "D" is vulnerable. Low 40's and 20+ mph winds will hinder that USC passing game, too. Check game time, if it is 20+ mph that helps GT a lot, if it is really bad play and WR Lee is out, play it as 4* or 5* game.

    4* Tulsa + 2

    Rare same season revenge game, Ia State won opening game of the season, so CUSA Champ Tulsa will be motivated. Ia State # 1 RB Johnson hurt in bowl practice, and Ia State is starting a red shirt freshman QB, their 3rd QB of the season, he started one game this yr. Tulsa is a top notch running club, 244 ypg, but can throw, too.

    3* LSU - 6

    10-2 SEC vs 10-2 ACC. Easy. Really. LSU played a superior schedule, has a top notch "D" loaded with NFL beef, on artificial turf they will harrass Clemson QB Boyd, get some sacks and turnovers. LSU QB Mettenberger improved with experience over the season, can throw better than you think, meanwhile LSU will pound the ball with several running backs and slowly pull away. Clemson "D" is vulnerable.



    (I don't blame you if you do not go with these... though I advise you do... the true test is ask yourself "if they played again, who would you take?"... FYI I watched 90% of these games, and I would take Boise again, WKy, Bowling Green, Duke, Rutgers, and Oregon State... all losers... some were very, very, bad beats, last minute of the game stuff: bad ref calls, incredible plays/deflections/instant replay reversals or non reversals, some coaches made terrible decisions... but I would take them again. Really. On the other hand, Fresno, UCLA, UL Monroe, AF, Navy... no, I would take the other side. Tough to know in early games who will be fired up and who will treat it as a vacation (SMU-Fresno!). BUT I will NOT go away and fold or hide and say I have a Hillary concussion or something. You have to have the stomach for this shit! Either way, GOOD LUCK!)
    Last edited by Serbone; 12-31-12 at 10:58 AM.
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  28. #63
    Serbone
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    10-13 (7.7*)
    FYI, I count 10% juice in losses in my star ratings.

    Right before the LSU game with a lot of pregame talk and interviews, I was convinced that Clemson wanted the win more than LSU and I unfortunately was right on that issue... LSU thought it was BCS Champiohship material, lost a last minute squeaker to Bama... now playing in a consolation bowl in a pre-January setting against (ugh) an ACC team, whereas Clemson wanted to BEAT a big name SEC team like LSU and make ammends for its horrible showing on "D" last yr.

    Not that LSU has a great "O" but no way Clemson stops LSU so easily in the 2nd half... so many "3 and outs". Clemson had the ball all of the time and wore out LSU's NFL beef laden "D". The Clemson kids fought harder in the trenches in the 2nd half, especially the last 10 minutes of the game.

    With all of the injuries and last minute suspensions and coaching changes and QB changes at game time and trying to figure out who WANTS the game the most, it is really best to wait til the last minute to make a wager on these bowls. HUGE difference it could make... and has made.
    Last edited by Serbone; 01-01-13 at 08:07 AM.

  29. #64
    Serbone
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    3* Oklahoma State - 17
    Hate laying this much wood (ever) but Purdue is not ready for this 44 ppg OK St offense. OK St was unlucky, are a bit frustrated, lost squeakers to some top notch teams mostly on the road, has speed and power that Purdue cannot deal with... Purdue can throw the ball, yes, but nothing like the Big 12 teams OK St saw; I think there will be some turnovers going OK St's way. Ok St played a superior schedule (# 8) to Purdue (# 44). To boot, Purdue lost its coach, so their interim coaching staff is thin and looking for jobs. OK St is playing in Texas, a big recruiting display, will have recruits there to see them massacre a Big 10 team. Southern type Big 12 run and gun team with much closer fan base + billionare support against plodding Big 10 6-6 shouldn't even be in a bowl northern team. They are not in the mode of being disappointed and flat, they will want to show off to the world. I think OK St will score in the mid high 50's. Blowout.

    3* Mississippi State - 1

    I know Northwestern is well coached and wants it's first ever bowl win. And has a strong OL and running game. And is always smarter / more disciplined than their opponents. BUT I think NW will not be able to get their running yards against a decent SEC defense... for a non SEC team to beat MSU you need to also throw a lot IMO. MSU lost to Bama, A&M, LSU & Mississippi. Nothing to be embarrassed about. MSU coaches will push them hard after loss to bitter rival Mississippi in the season finale. To me, the game is the MSU "O" against the NW "D" and I think MSU will be able to do a lot of damage. SEC, southern team, closer to home, more followers, off a bitter loss, style used to the warmer weather.
    Last edited by Serbone; 01-01-13 at 10:27 AM.

  30. #65
    Black Hills
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    Great write-up, leaning Ok St and NW, Good Luck

  31. #66
    Serbone
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    2* South Carolina - 4 1/2

    SEC vs Big 10. Great South Carolina DL will swarm Michigan QB's. Key CB and punter OUT for Michigan, South Carolina can throw better than you think... Ace Sanders will run wild after the catch and on returns. South Carolina beat Clemson... what does that tell you? SEC southern team closer to home used to warm weather games vs Big 10 cold weather team.

    3* Georgia - 8 1/2

    SEC vs Big 10. Both teams are coming in disapointed after conference championship game losses. AND Georgia has come out flat in some recent disapointing bowl game settings. BUT Nebraska is not built to beat this kind of "D" with so much future NFL beef... though Georgia is missing it's star DT. Nebraska cannot pocket pass, and their run game will be stuffed, they have failed on the road turf against lesser foes, their quick cuts will not be as crisp on natural turf IMO. On the other hand, DAWGS can run very well and also have a pro style QB, Murray, who can throw deep. Again, same theme, SEC southern warm weather team vs. northern cold weather run first team.
    Last edited by Serbone; 01-01-13 at 09:55 AM.

  32. #67
    Serbone
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    Quote Originally Posted by Black Hills View Post
    Great write-up, leaning Ok St and NW, Good Luck
    In my heart, I am rooting for NW. Good academic school, on the up and up more than most programs, deserve a bowl win, they play hard and agressive. But handicapped for MSU.
    RE: write ups, I could write 1/2 page on each game, I did on one or two earlier, but WTF, why? Most no one else writes anything up, just makes picks or cites one obvious fact. I have some basic strategies that I pound away at (conference vs conference, motivation, favor southern warm weather & closer to home teams, bet against lame duck coaches though I snapped and went with TT, there are so many factors).
    Good luck.
    Again, it sometimes comes down to "which ------ fumbles". (Bowing Green, Duke, etc)If you win and cover by less than 7 points, you are not especially smart. If you lose ATS by less than 7, you are not necessarily a fool.

    (ESPN on line got some sports gambling probability mathematician and he said Duke + 9, with the ball, 1:20 to go on the 10 yd line (whatever), probablity was 3 in 1,400 that Cincinnati would cover the spread.)
    Last edited by Serbone; 01-01-13 at 09:59 AM.

  33. #68
    Serbone
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    3* Stanford - 4

    Sure, 8-5 Wisconsin (# 38 SOS) blew out Nebraska for the Big 10 Championship but had lept over Ohio State and Penn State to get in the game to begin with... both ineligible. And Wisky can run the ball, 500+ vs Huskers though the Huskers obviously quit. But Wisky lost 5 games whereas Stanford is 11-2 and really clicked when they went with Hogan at QB. The Stanford (# 6 SOS) front seven stops the run first and foremost, # 3 against the rush, stopped Oregon for the win. Not bad. You will know a lot the first few times 237 running yds per game Wisconsin gets the ball... will they be able to run the ball? I say, no, not enough to cover. Stanford is a very physical team, prides itself that they have a new culture. The Pac 12 has done well vs The Big 10 in the Rose Bowl forever, including lately 6-1 ATS. Another plodding Big 10 team, traveling 2,000 miles across the USA, against a warm weather team on natural turf. Wisconsin lost its coach and sure, AD Alverez is a good sub but still most of the staff are going going gone and there will be problems. A lot are taking the points with Wisky. I say, Stanford, with better record, on its familiar natural turf, better strength of schedule, better "D", better QB, west coast team vs plodding Big 10 team, no head coach.
    Last edited by Serbone; 01-01-13 at 02:08 PM.
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    lesterdymond gave Serbone 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  34. #69
    Serbone
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    4* Florida State - 14 1/2

    The only question is, will Fla State completely sleep walk through this game and let NI cover? So, motivation wise, I am hoping the close to home crowd will get them revved up, they will NOT want to be embarrased by NI (who?), and NI will be a bit intimidated in the goddam Orange Bowl with no head coach leadership.

    The ACC has done well in the bowls (Clemson, GT, lucky VT, unlucky Duke, coachless NC St the only poor showing)... and The ACC Champ, that beat Clemson, is playing the MAC Champ that had to go into OT to beat Kent State. To me, that is enough. But add that it is home friendly, in Florida, a ton of fan support, natural turf (NI is AT team), Fla State has # 2 "D" in the NCAA, Fla State OL is 20-40 lbs larger than NI DL, Fla State QB is larger than any NI linebacker, the NI WR's are small, going against NFL potential DB's at Fla State. Fla State SOS is # 69 compared to NI's 126. NI's QB will be a marked man... small good nimble passer and runner will get hit by guys 30+ pounds heavier than he is used to in the MAC. Will he last the whole game? Can you tell I do not respect the MAC in bowl play? Sorry, this is just business. There are some good skill players on "O" in the MAC, but MAC "D" is the worst-of-the-worst. NI allowed 40 pts to Army, 34 to Western Michigan, 24 to Central Michigan, 23 to Kansas, 24 to Central Michigan, 23 to Ball State, despite dominating on "O". Florida State lost a wild one to SEC Florida, arguably the # 3 team in the land, close til the end but minus 4 turnovers did them in... and they were sandwiched looking ahead to GT ACC Championship game. To boot, the NI coach flew the coup for North Carolina State. So WTF are these guys doing in the Orange Bowl? If the two star DE's were playing for Fla St and the line was - 18 I would like that better than the current situation. And yes, I am aware that DC Stoops left Fla St but I think Elliot will call the plays well on "D".

    So, again, laying a lot of wood, but taking a much better conference, ACC is doing very well in the bowls, team with stronger SOS, bigger stronger faster athletes, great "D", big OL, warm weather southern team with close fan support, natural turf team, vs northern cold weather head-coachless team.
    Last edited by Serbone; 01-01-13 at 05:53 PM.

  35. #70
    Serbone
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    14-14 0* ... going into 4* Fla State - 14 1/2

    Unbelievable. And I take 10% juice for each loss per star.
    Lots of fun, isn't it? All this and exactly even with 7 games to go. I had to re check it, 14-14, zero net stars.
    6* GOY coming later, pending suspensions/unknown injuries.

    (goddam Duke game... 3 in 1,400 probability: tied, getting 9 1/2, 1:20 or so to go, have the ball in Cincy Red zone.........)

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