[guy Fawkes]

Hey SBR Forums! I thought I'd try to squeeze in one more write up before the end of the regular season and the typically tight bowl games start up. My last write up was a very fun one and occurred nearly a month and a half ago with Middle Tennessee trouncing the largely favored Georgia Tech squad. We had a lot of fun watching that one! We're moving on to the "Rockin' in the Sunshine" Arizona Stadium in Tucson for what should be a passionate contest. I'm going back to the old format for my write ups as people let me know that the format worked well on a computer screen, but any mobile or tablet device made my "charts" unreadable.

Disclaimer & Record

I try to choose games no one is talking about. I cannot predict which games are going to be talking points and may occasionally overlap into the "popular" discussions. For the most part I will try and write up an angle or a play on which I don't think many people are going to be doing research. I will never write on a bet that is greater than -175 and will try to find as many underdog opportunities as possible. My write ups arealmost always going to be biased as I am portraying why I am personally betting on the game. They are not complete and should never be taken as gospel. If you want a 360 degree view, do further research (as all posters and bettors should be doing anyway).

2011 NCAAF Write Ups 11-11 (+8.3u)

2012 NCAAF Write Ups 3-2 (+29.4u) <-Admittedly, very skewed from the MTSU game. More like (+1.4) and a (+2800)

-Arizona State Sun Devils @ Arizona Wildcats-

Arizona State Sun Devils

Arizona State really began this year with some promise and vigor. They began drawing national attention in week 2, beating a historically rough opponent Illinois, 45-14. They went on to just barely lose against newly-inducted SEC member Missouri in a hard fought 24-20 game. The Sun Devils went on to impress until running up against Oregon and falling 43-21. From this point they skidded to a 4 week losing streak against UCLA, Oregon State and USC. That streak finally ended last week at a ragtag Washington State 46-7.

It's quite a story for the Arizona State legacy, but let's take a more objective look at this record. Arizona State has won against Northern Arizona (FCS), a 2-9 Illinois team we now know to be terrible, a 4-7 Utah, a 1-10 Colorado team, a 3-10 Cal team, and a 2-9 Washington State team. That's a 6-5 record for the Sun Devils no matter how you slice it, but with only one brag-worthy win over a mediocre Utah squad. The only team with a winning record they have beaten is the 8-3 (again, FCS) Northern Arizona.

So, what's to blame? First year head coach Todd Graham seems to think that Taylor Kelly (QB Soph) is still Brock Osweiler. At a full 6 inches shorter and 40 pounds lighter, Kelly has had to run QB draws that Graham has called right into the teeth of defenses that are capable of crushing Kelly. On 121 rush attempts (30 sacks included), Kelly has been able to average 3.2 yards per attempted rush. Kelly does post some impressive passing stats, with 35 TDs v. 9 interceptions and a 66.9% completion rate. Handing the ball off isn't much more productive, as Cameron Marshall (Senior) has had 503 yards on 118 attempts (4.3 avg) and has yet to post a triple digit rushing game this season. His counterpart D. J. Foster (Freshman) is slightly better at 443 yards on only 85 attempts (5.2 avg), but also has not posted a 100 yard game (admittedly getting only about 2/3 the carries of Marshall). Add to this the special teams woes of the Sun Devils, with Jon Mora (Junior) and Alex Garoutte (Sophomore) kicking for 7 of 10 and 6 of 11 respectively and nothing short of a touchdown is safe points on the board. Finally, the kick-in-the-junk for Arizona State, five starting defensive players are listed as questionable, doubtful or out as of this writing.

Arizona Wildcats

Arizona has had a parallel universe type of season from Arizona State. Receiving very little media attention after barely beating Toledo 24-17 in the first week of the season, Arizona has been quietly picking up key wins to boast a respectable season. Arizona has only fallen to 10-1 Oregon, 8-2 Oregon State, 9-2 Stanford in OT, and 7-2 UCLA. After losing their first game 49-0 against Oregon, Arizona was swept under the rug, only to emerge after beating (at the time) #9 USC 39-36 and quickly being dismissed after being trounced 66-10 by UCLA. Now, the Wildcats are beginning to peek out from obscurity again, having gained a BCS ranking of 24 just this week. Unlike Arizona State, Arizona has only been beaten by teams with near perfect records and has beaten notable teams in (at the time) #18 Oklahoma State and #9 USC.

The Wildcats have put up some gaudy numbers with some key players this season. Matt Scott (QB Senior) just passed the 3000 mark through the air last week defeating Utah 34-24. Scott has completed 254 of 413 passes (61.5%) this season. Scott has thrown 21 TDs v. 9 interceptions and has only been sacked 13 times this season. Scott can run as well, rushing 96 times this season (sacks included) for 343 yards (3.6 yards per carry), though Arizona 1st year head coach Rich Rodriguez prefers to get it done on his QB's arm. When the time comes to run the ball, Ka'Deem Carey has it covered with 1585 rushing yards off of 250 attempts (6.3 avg). Carey can double as a very good receiver as well with 289 yards on 32 receptions (9.0 avg). John Bonano (K Senior) started off the year very rough only kicking 4 for 9 field goals for the Wildcats. Since week 6, however Bonano is 8 for 9 with a long of 44 yards.

Final Notes

Since both teams have a winning record, I'm going to analyze a bit more into those intriguing records. Against winning teams (not counting FCS) (Note Arizona State is based on 4 games, while Arizona is based on 6 games):
-Taylor Kelly has completed 76 of 124 passes (61.3%) for 735 yards (5.8 yards/attempt) and has rushed 56 times for 164 yards (2.9 avg)
-Matt Scott has completed 198 of 325 passes (60.9%) for 2304 yards (7.1 yards/attempt) and has rushed 66 times for 265 yards (4.0 avg)
-Cameron Marshall has rushed 40 times for 166 yards (4.2 yards per carry) and has caught 4 passes for 11 yards (2.8 yards/catch)
-Ka'Deem Carey has rushed 157 times for 772 yards (4.9 yards per carry) and has caught 26 passes for 234 yards (9.0 yards/catch)

This one comes down to consistency. Whichever team is able to continuously drive down the field and gain small chunks of yards at will should come out ahead. "The Big Play" should be pretty rare today, with the possible exception of Ka'Deem Carey.

I'm really looking for Ka'Deem Carey to come out and have a statement game tonight. I'm hoping to see him get 30 touches for the first time this year and come away with about 200 yards on the night.

Arizona and Arizona State sport an impressive 2.0 and 2.2 takeaways per game and both sport an exact 2.0 giveaways per game. If either team can take the turnover edge in this one it will go a long way towards a victory.

Scott may still be recovering from what is likely an undiagnosed concussion suffered on October 27th against USC. It's hard to say how his health is doing as no one is really discussing that Rodriguez may have ignored NCAA concussion rules in order to keep his quarterback for the remainder of the USC game and against UCLA the following week. Nearly a month later it is likely any symptoms have passed, but it bears mentioning in the interest of full disclosure.

The line is moving towards Arizona State in this one, I can't really explain why.

My Play

-2.5 @ -110 4u

The End

Thank you for reading and as always please feel free to post anything and everything. I read all comments and continue to check picks against any new data presented here. This is a write-up and contains some of the information I use but not all for the sake of time. I hope this information is useful, despite which way the information is used. Again, thank you for reading!

[mwl]

Nice writeup. Do you have any thoughts on the total?

[guy Fawkes]

Nice writeup. Do you have any thoughts on the total?

I'd lean to the over, but considering it's moved 2 points since the line came out the EV may be gone there. Arizona requires the 5th lowest time of possession in the NCAA and Arizona State averages under 30 minutes.

Against teams with winning records Arizona State has allowed 43, 45, 36 and 38 points, while Arizona has given up 17, 38, 49, 38, 54, 36 and 66 points. Both teams will have a hard time stopping the other, but Arizona State may chew up the clock a few unproductive drives.

When I capped this one I had it as Arizona 39.5 - Arizona State 30.5. Given that, a likely score would be Arizona 38-42, Arizona State 28-32. Personally, I have the game falling right on the line, but I can make a better argument for over than under.

[PAULYPOKER]

MY write up>

74% of Public pounding Arizona (ATS)
+
RLM
=
Autofade

Result: ARIZONA STATE ML+130

[thebestthereis]

MY write up>



74% of Public pounding Arizona (ATS)
+
RLM
=
Autofade

Result: ARIZONA STATE ML+130

This is all u need to look at. All of the other bullshit sounds good, make no mistake, but it's meaningless. Good luck!

[Mike Huntertz]

Sagrin has SOS Zona #3 and State #34 ....reflects your analysis.
Tail!

[PAULYPOKER]

MY write up>

74% of Public pounding Arizona (ATS)
+
RLM
=
Autofade

Result: ARIZONA STATE ML+130

[guy Fawkes]

Congratulations on your win Pauly and thanks for bumping the thread to contribute a smiley face tipping his cap to yourself. You contributed wonderfully to the discussion and deserve your 17 point come from behind win. Good luck going forward into bowl season as it's likely this isn't the last longshot you'll be facing.

On a separate note, this will be the end of the write ups on my end. Last year we had a lot more stimulating discussion and had some relevant stats brought into the fold via these threads. Unfortunately, many of the posters that had done so are no longer with SBR or limited in their capacity to post. I spend hours gathering the relevant statistics and this year only seem to be greeted with gems such as:

This is all u need to look at. All of the other bullshit sounds good, make no mistake, but it's meaningless. Good luck!

I've never been very altruistic in nature and I don't see myself reaping much benefit continuing these any further. I'll be lurking around the forums, still trying to dig the the "uh huh" "nuh uh" "uh huh" threads, but it seems there are better places on the internet for intelligent capping discussion.

Good luck to those that make their own.

Final Record

2011 NCAAF Write Ups 11-11 (+8.3u)

2012 NCAAF Write Ups 3-3 (+25.0u)

Overall 14-14 (+33.3u)

[crackerjack]

Don't let the door hit you on the way out

[PAULYPOKER]

Congratulations on your win Pauly and thanks for bumping the thread to contribute a smiley face tipping his cap to yourself. You contributed wonderfully to the discussion and deserve your 17 point come from behind win. Good luck going forward into bowl season as it's likely this isn't the last longshot you'll be facing.

On a separate note, this will be the end of the write ups on my end. Last year we had a lot more stimulating discussion and had some relevant stats brought into the fold via these threads. Unfortunately, many of the posters that had done so are no longer with SBR or limited in their capacity to post. I spend hours gathering the relevant statistics and this year only seem to be greeted with gems such as:



I've never been very altruistic in nature and I don't see myself reaping much benefit continuing these any further. I'll be lurking around the forums, still trying to dig the the "uh huh" "nuh uh" "uh huh" threads, but it seems there are better places on the internet for intelligent capping discussion.

Good luck to those that make their own.

Final Record

2011 NCAAF Write Ups 11-11 (+8.3u)

2012 NCAAF Write Ups 3-3 (+25.0u)

Overall 14-14 (+33.3u)

,I was just trying to help you understand this forums mental capacity is all,they don't have an attention span to read 1 sentence let alone numerous paragraphs so unless you are going to supply the Adderal or Ritalin for these degenerate fukks you are wasting your time...........