1. #1
    Isaiah
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    Join Date: 11-06-12
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    How About Progression to the Mean Plays?

    The obverse side of the regression to the mean play is obvious - let's look at teams with ridiculously bad ats results:

    Air Force 3-8
    Arkansas 2-9
    Army 3-8
    Colorado 2-9
    Idaho 2-9
    Illinois 3-8
    Iowa 2-9
    Kentucky 3-8
    Miami Ohio 2-8-1
    Michigan St. 3-8
    Nevada 2-9
    USC 3-8
    So. Miss. 3-8
    Tennessee 3-8
    Virginia 1-8-2
    Virginia Tech 3-8
    West Virginia 3-7

    Can't bring myself to play them all but am going to cherry pick my way through them. An interesting situation is where the best and the worst ats teams collide. For example, Miami Ohio (2-8-1 ats) plays Ball State (9-2 ats), Illinois (3-8 ats) plays Northwestern (10-1 ats) and Idaho (2-9 ats) plays Utah State (11-0 ats). Will the law of averages assert its iron fist? Or insert it in yours? Might be other situations but I don't have time to go through the entire list.

    Not too enthusiastic about this brain storm because it violates one of my most important gambling principles i.e. never expect a bad team to make you money. Will definitely be picking my spots with extreme discrimination.
    Last edited by Isaiah; 11-22-12 at 11:37 PM.

  2. #2
    Isaiah
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    The plays went 4-0 today (Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Miami Ohio). Interesting. Wish I'd bet them all, only had Miami Ohio and Iowa. Did get some with Arkansas +4 in 2nd half. Will have to look at the remainders for tomorrow.

  3. #3
    BlitzTheBooks
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    Join Date: 10-05-12
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    Updated total?

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