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N.ill (-6.5) @ W.Mich
Really liking N.ill in this spot.
The huskies are 6 - 2 ATS this year, with one of those ATS losses coming in the 1st game of the year. A game that were not able to run the ball well, which is the teams bread-n-butter.
11-2-2 ATS vs W. Michigan last 15 years.
N.ill has been, on average, 18.8 pts better than their opponents. while avergaing more than 250 rush ypg
YPP for n.ill is -8.1 for W.mich its 1.5 difference of 9.6
any thoughts?
Best team in the MAC. Yes, better than Ohio. This spread should be 10+
Take Western Michigan
GL
and why's that...?Originally Posted by MasterP10
Look in the WKU / FIU thread. He's just going into threads saying "Take [Opposite Side] GL" for the hell of it
I really love this game, huge opportunity for Northern Ill if they want to take advantage of it. I've seen both of these teams play several times, and I wrote a full breakdown including how both sides of the ball line up against each other. Western Michigan is banged up, without their starting QB and leading WR. Their 3-3-5 defense should get mowed over by Jordan Lynch and the Huskies rushing attack. You can read the full write-up here: http://openinglinesports.weebly.com/-cfb-blog.html
NIll rolls, they are the best team in the MAC. Even Toledo is better then Ohio IMO.
After the results, don't say I didn't warn you.
GL
I'm not saying take the other side for the hell of it. I have actually bet "that side" I guess I have to take screen shots of my plays cause people around here just think we tell each other are plays for fun. I don't know about the rest of you but I bet for money not for "fun" or "to make game more exciting" I do this for a living. I don't have a 9-5 job or any other income (other then some rental properties) I bets sports full time and put over 80 hrs of work each week doing so.
then please grace us with your reasoning. just saying "pick the other team" doesnt add any value to the discussion. I'm not saying you're going to be wrong, just that the input would be more appreciated if there was more substance to it. thanks.
In a nut shell. My numbers have N Ill as a short favorite and W Mich is better then their record indicates. So getting +7.5 was play for me.
Also I wasn't even questioning your post, I was replying to turbozed.
I've been all over Lynch and NIU this year but be careful with this one. So far this year when a line opens at less than 7.5 and closes above 5, the dogs are 39-20 ATS. When the public likes the favorite the dog is 29-7 ATS. Seems like it's a great spot for NIU to roll them but this has me a bit worried.
Do your numbers factor in W. Mich will be without their starting QB and leading WR? Not to mention they run a 3-3-5 pass prevent defense that matches up terribly against Northern Ill's potent running attack?
Yes, everything is factored in. No Ill has some injuries of their own you know.
Yeah, their #3 WR and a safety that didn't play last week. That is hardly less of a drop-off than an All-MAC quarterback and a leading WR (Wilson) that has more catches than the next two starters combined.
Carder has been out since week 4. I'm pretty sure this is factored into the line.
My mistake. You posted on three different threads saying to take the other side with no explanation so i thoguth you were being gimmicky
I know its built into the line. I'm just saying its hard to have confidence in this WMU team without him. Van Tubbergen hasn't exactly impressed this year, and now his #1 WR is out. I hate to sound like a broken record on this. However, I really do appreciate you bringing to light the other side of the equation. That's what these forums are designed to do.
No worries, I'm usually pretty serious on here about this stuff because I take it serious. I'm not betting tens of thousands of dollars each game but I'm also not betting 10-20 bucks either. You have to start somewhere right. But about the write ups/explanation of picks. I will try to give more reasoning behind each play, its hard when you have 15-20 plays on a saturday to go through each game, quicker to just give the picks you know. But if anyone wants to know my reasoning I would be happy to share with you.
Couldn't agree more.
Winners Win.
Last edited by TheBetBuysDanK; 10-30-12 at 09:23 PM.
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