1. 10-11-12 05:51 PM #1
    JMon
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    Large Favs coming off a bye---AZST

    AZST -22

    Are a modest 110-90-3 AST since 1980. Putting the large fav parameter at 21.5 to 31 that is. After I input at least 11 days of rest...a trend points at 28-6-1 ATS (average line -25.4, and margin of victory of 34.9) since 2007. We already seen K-State in this situation against KU. It appears we will have OKST in this situation this week as well. I have other supporting situations, just chime in if you're interested.

    gl.

    23044226 2012-10-11 18:12:01.0 INTERNET: Straight Bet risk 235 win 214 103 Arizona State -22 (-110) risk 235 win 214 (NCAA FB) Print
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  2. 10-11-12 06:01 PM #2
    WinningIsKeY
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    I like it. Big gap in talent here as well! Went big on first half -16 +140 . Gl family
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  3. 10-11-12 06:49 PM #3
    mandude
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    Those are nice trends to back against a trash team like Col, but the one thing that has me worried is how much did Arz St prepare/look forward to Oregon next week? They SHOULD walk all over the Buffs here but laying -22 on the road on national tv to a team with nothing to lose and a possible looking ahead situation to the Ducks has me worried.
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  4. 10-11-12 06:56 PM #4
    ShogunRua
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    can u separate the home/away records on those? Colorado isn't exactly a tough place to play, but...just sayin.
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  5. 10-11-12 07:05 PM #5
    Pivotpoint
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    I'm on ASU - 21 1/2. Just logged in and number jumped to - 22 1/2

    Tons of variables, but I always check the YTD Spread record.

    Arizona St 4 -0 - 1

    Buffs 1 - 5

    This one sealed the deal.

    ASU Head Coach Todd Grahm 10 - 2 ATS when having extra time to prepare. Not a top play but 1X on ASU and I love to put these Thurs Night games on the front end of a 2 or 3 team parlay or round robin. gl
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  6. 10-11-12 07:23 PM #6
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by ShogunRua View Post
    can u separate the home/away records on those? Colorado isn't exactly a tough place to play, but...just sayin.
    In fact quite a disparity...good catch. ugh... Since the 2007, same parameters 2-2 ATS on the ROAD, last win NEB (-24.5) over MIN ...41-14 (2011). It appears we have a HOME system...I failed to see.
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  7. 10-11-12 07:36 PM #7
    JMon
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    Another simple one to put in your back pocket...

    Simply fade a home dog of 14.5 or more after a loss off 28 or more. 3-0 this year...24-8 L3. Let me know if want me to list the games and dates.
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  8. 10-11-12 07:48 PM #8
    WinningIsKeY
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    Sharer of information = friend. Hopefully we all get a piece of this pie! Gl man
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  9. 10-11-12 11:41 PM #9
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by WinningIsKeY View Post
    Sharer of information = friend. Hopefully we all get a piece of this pie! Gl man
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  10. 10-12-12 07:16 AM #10
    M.W.
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    JMon - congrats onlast night's winner.

    Can you tell me, what are the numbers for a large ROAD favorite off a bye that lost the game before the bye? I believe that's a negative situation that would apply to Oklahoma State. Can you check your numbers and let me know whether I'm right? Thanks.
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  11. 10-12-12 08:53 AM #11
    JMon
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    ^ can you specify "large"
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  12. 10-12-12 09:21 AM #12
    M.W.
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    Let's say greater than 16-point favorites
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  13. 10-12-12 10:38 AM #13
    JMon
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    Road favs of more than 16 following a loss and coming off a bye of 11 days or more

    17-3 SU - 3-16-1 ATS since 1987 (average line -23.5)

    Last game...2008 ARI (-39.5) v WAST, 59-28

    OKST does fit in this situation.

    Road favs of more than 16 following a loss and coming off a bye of 13 days or more

    15-3 SU - 3-14-1 ATS (ave line -23.6)
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  14. 10-12-12 11:30 AM #14
    M.W.
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    Thanks for checking. That's a small sample, but it still looks like an exception to the generally positive situation for large favorites off a bye. So I'm going to pass on Oklahoma State. However, I believe Alabama qualifies in the same situation as ASU. Is that a play for you?
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  15. 10-12-12 12:57 PM #15
    og4667
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    does alabama -21 fit this situation...they are coming off a bye.
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  16. 10-12-12 03:57 PM #16
    JMon
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    ^ if you refer to my first post the parameters for the "since 2007" trend of that particular 55% system (were favs from -21.5 to -31) currently trending at 29-6-1 82.9% ATS with last night's win .

    teams that are -21 favs, as Alabama, are 4-2 ATS 66.6% since 2007 within that situation. As to why I made the cut off-21.5. However, it looks like Ala is going to -21.5.

    OKST is the only play as of now that fits the situation tomorrow which I am unsure of whether I am even going to play it since last night we found the situation better fits the home fav team, rather than the road fav. Anyway, I use other factors along with a database to make my plays. I will be sure to post if I find something worthwhile.
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  17. 10-12-12 04:01 PM #17
    Capnitrite
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    Yes, yes
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  18. 10-13-12 11:37 AM #18
    M.W.
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    Good work, JMon. And good luck today.
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