1. 10-06-12 06:58 PM #1
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    Books are going to take a bath on WVU

    No. 1 public play by far today, both ML and spread.

    Line continued to move in Texas' favor.

    The public payout here is going to be large.

    Weird line/movement.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 10-06-12 07:01 PM #2
    suicidekings
    Update your status
    suicidekings's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-23-09
    Posts: 9,962
    Betpoints: 0

    Anyone that watched the Texas - OK State game had to be wary of Texas' defense against big offenses. The Cowboys moved the ball with ease all night. Not surprising that WVU took big money.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 10-06-12 07:05 PM #3
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    Anyone that watched the Texas - OK State game had to be wary of Texas' defense against big offenses. The Cowboys moved the ball with ease all night. Not surprising that WVU took big money.
    Why would the line be where it was, and more importantly, why would it move in Texas' favor?

    I can't bet college football anymore. It's a public haven. Two years in a row. Top public plays today were WVU and Oklahoma, there was RLM and everything, I beat the closer with ease, and it doesn't mean anything.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 10-06-12 07:11 PM #4
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    Unreal that they would just hand over a game like this.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 10-06-12 07:12 PM #5
    5mike5
    NA$CAR PSYCHIC
    5mike5's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-21-11
    Posts: 50,973
    Betpoints: 29078

    Glad they did

    WVU is legit
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 10-06-12 07:20 PM #6
    JT OZ
    JT OZ's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-16-10
    Posts: 2,076
    Betpoints: 87

    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Why would the line be where it was, and more importantly, why would it move in Texas' favor?

    I can't bet college football anymore. It's a public haven. Two years in a row. Top public plays today were WVU and Oklahoma, there was RLM and everything, I beat the closer with ease, and it doesn't mean anything.
    Alter your approach a bit NC, you said this early in September about baseball as well. If you are noticing a strong trend why would you keep going against it?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 10-06-12 07:21 PM #7
    JT OZ
    JT OZ's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-16-10
    Posts: 2,076
    Betpoints: 87

    I understand the books are not in the business of losing money overall so I'm guessing that plays into your philosophy on it but you can alter things a bit without abandoning your core principles.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 10-06-12 07:22 PM #8
    JT OZ
    JT OZ's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-16-10
    Posts: 2,076
    Betpoints: 87

    Line made little sense to me so I mostly avoided it other than using WVU in a couple teasers.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 10-06-12 07:25 PM #9
    2daBank
    2daBank's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-26-09
    Posts: 88,966
    Betpoints: 90

    this gm still go either way..tex d is starting to play....easy bet was over as it will be in every wvu big 12 gm...
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 10-06-12 07:32 PM #10
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    Quote Originally Posted by JT OZ View Post
    Alter your approach a bit NC, you said this early in September about baseball as well. If you are noticing a strong trend why would you keep going against it?
    I just can't JT.

    I can't take a team at +7.5 when it opened at +6.5 or at +277 when it opened at +218 and everyone in the free public world is hammering the dog. Nothing made sense about this line or the movement, unless the books were just OK with handing over free money.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 10-06-12 07:40 PM #11
    suicidekings
    Update your status
    suicidekings's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-23-09
    Posts: 9,962
    Betpoints: 0

    What did you think the line should be, if not -7?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 10-06-12 07:43 PM #12
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    What did you think the line should be, if not -7?
    I wasn't as surprised by the opening line, though I did anticipate a -5.5 or so.

    The movement is what made me jump on Texas. Look at Pinny late.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 10-06-12 07:46 PM #13
    JT OZ
    JT OZ's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-16-10
    Posts: 2,076
    Betpoints: 87

    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    I just can't JT.

    I can't take a team at +7.5 when it opened at +6.5 or at +277 when it opened at +218 and everyone in the free public world is hammering the dog. Nothing made sense about this line or the movement, unless the books were just OK with handing over free money.
    I understand your reasoning and while I was puzzled by the line it doesn't appear as far off as we thought about an hour ago.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 10-06-12 07:49 PM #14
    JT OZ
    JT OZ's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-16-10
    Posts: 2,076
    Betpoints: 87

    I think in this case you made the right call given your research but I was more referring to your overall outlook on it. Obviously given all of that movement you had to think there was some serious money coming in on the Horns.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 10-06-12 08:00 PM #15
    csknight3
    csknight3's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-19-10
    Posts: 629
    Betpoints: 1073

    Notice how texas is up by 1... they win by a TD in the second = 8 point COVER...
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 10-06-12 09:09 PM #16
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    Unbelievable.

    Free money.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 10-06-12 09:17 PM #17
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    Texas is just plain trash.

    No other way to put it.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  18. 10-06-12 09:25 PM #18
    2daBank
    2daBank's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-26-09
    Posts: 88,966
    Betpoints: 90

    obviously there were plenty of big bets on tex and the under,,,so please explain how you know books taking a bath?...70% or whatever of 25-100 bets dont mean shit if 30% are betting huge money on other side,,,yo have no clue how books are doing on this gm, just cap the fukkin gm NC and take off the tin foil hat..
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  19. 10-06-12 09:31 PM #19
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    obviously there were plenty of big bets on tex and the under,,,so please explain how you know books taking a bath?...70% or whatever of 25-100 bets dont mean shit if 30% are betting huge money on other side,,,yo have no clue how books are doing on this gm, just cap the fukkin gm NC and take off the tin foil hat..
    What does this have to do with a conspiracy Banker? I'm not claiming there is anything fishy going on here -- just saying that WVU was the No. 1 public play both ML and spread. Both are going to cash. You don't think that's going to leave a huge dent in the books, handing out a +277 dog winner that opened at +218 and was just continually pounded by the public?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  20. 10-06-12 09:35 PM #20
    2daBank
    2daBank's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-26-09
    Posts: 88,966
    Betpoints: 90

    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    What does this have to do with a conspiracy Banker? I'm not claiming there is anything fishy going on here -- just saying that WVU was the No. 1 public play both ML and spread. Both are going to cash. You don't think that's going to leave a huge dent in the books, handing out a +277 dog winner that opened at +218 and was just continually pounded by the public?

    not while so called "sharps" were hitting tex and under,,,that line wasnt going up on make believe money bro...same as total dropping, obviously some heavy money was on wrong side so i doubt books mide paying the "square" side that prob bet less money combined..
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  21. 10-06-12 09:37 PM #21
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    not while so called "sharps" were hitting tex and under,,,that line wasnt going up on make believe money bro...same as total dropping, obviously some heavy money was on wrong side so i doubt books mide paying the "square" side that prob bet less money combined..
    I've read that is 100% not true.

    No amount of big "sharp" money can make up for the volume generated by a monster public play like this one -- especially when there's a big + involved on the ML.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  22. 10-06-12 09:41 PM #22
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    You always read articles from books that take a beating when big public plays cash. I'd be willing to bet there will be another one this week about this game.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  23. 10-06-12 09:49 PM #23
    Smutbucket
    Smutbucket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-14-08
    Posts: 3,956
    Betpoints: 13748

    just cap the game.....at end of the day your just making a bunch of assumptions/relying on public internet sources that are easily manipulated/who knows how accurate it is....ive been saying this back for years now, RLM means nothing, as soon as RLM means something the MONEY is SMART, meaning it ADAPTS......just like any free market....there is no easy money....look at the actual things that effect the game..... Id assume books have learned to adapt to not just move lines in order to balance their books, but to move lines in order to profit off people trying to not cap/anaylze games and rely off a bunch of numbers that have nothing to do with the actual game.....

    line movement = more of an action enticer than a book balancer.....actually it does balance out to more + money for them because more and more people betting based on it.....
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 2 times . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: 5mike5, and suicidekings
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote 2
Top
« Previous Thread | College Football Betting | Next Thread »