Western Michigan picked up a huge win this past Saturday over Northern Illinois but don’t expect a letdown here.
The Broncos trail Central Michigan by a game and a half in the MAC West and the next three games are against teams a combined 3-17 so there will be no lack of focus. Not only does Western Michigan want to keep pace, but this is a big revenge game. Last season, the Broncos closed out the regular season going 7-1 with the one loss coming at home against Ball St. 60-57 in five overtimes.
The Cardinals have dropped five of their last six games and they simply are not in the same class as Western Michigan right now.Ball St. has two wins on the year against teams a combined 1-11 and the Cardinals do not have the defense to keep up here. The offense was shut down last week against Central Michigan and the Broncos defense doesn’t even compare to that of the Chippewas. Ball St. is 1-3 at home and has won just two of six at Scheumann Stadium the past two seasons. Western Michigan is 10th in the country in total defense, allowing only 254.8 ypg.
The Broncos have not faced many great offenses but they are allowing 17.8 ppg against offenses averaging 20.3 ppg so the margin has been in their favor nonetheless. The Cardinals are averaging 29 ppg on the year but that has come against defenses allowing a whopping 28.4 ppg. They have gone against defenses ranked 105th, 97th, 111th, 108th, 115th and 93rd. That doesn’t include a game against 1-AA North Dakota St. The Broncos have had their share of problems on offense, averaging 24.2 ppg against teams allowing 28.8 ppg but 18.6 ppg was against Virginia and Ohio, the two good offenses they have gone against. Ball St. is allowing 27.7 ppg on defense against offenses averaging 25.6 ppg so the Cardinals have not only played bad defenses, they are not getting it done with their own defense. Ball St. is allowing over 200 yards more on defense than what the Broncos are allowing which is a huge variance.
Western Michigan has been stout against the run, allowing only 82.3 ypg on 2.9 ypc and the Cardinals don’t have a running game to try and break that. They are averaging just 91.1 ypg on 3.1 ypc. Ball St. is 2-10 ATS when rushing for fewer than 100 yards over the last three seasons while Western Michigan is 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Look for the Broncos to get their revenge in a big way here.
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Matt Fargo: West Michigan vs. Ball State
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