[guy Fawkes]

Hey SBR Forums! So my last write up got hosed pretty badly on a fumble in the end-zone that appeared to break the plane first. Ah well, wasn't quite as bad as some of the calls in the NFL this last weekend so I guess we just move on. We're moving on to the always loud Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta for what should be another ground game this weekend. I'm trying a new format for this write-up in an attempt to make this easier to glance at and take a fraction of the time to write (we'll see how it goes).

Disclaimer & Record

I try to choose games no one is talking about. I cannot predict which games are going to be talking points and may occasionally overlap into the "popular" discussions. For the most part I will try and write up an angle or a play on which I don't think many people are going to be doing research. I will never write on a bet that is greater than -175 and will try to find as many underdog opportunities as possible. My write ups are almost always going to be biased as I am portraying why I am personally betting on the game. They are not complete and should never be taken as gospel. If you want a 360 degree view, do further research (as all posters and bettors should be doing anyway).

2011 NCAAF Write Ups 11-11 (+8.3u)

2012 NCAAF Write Ups 1-2 (-3.6u)

-----Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets-----

Quarterback---------------- Logan Kilgore -------------------- Tevin Washington

Completions/Attempts -------59/85(69.4%)-----------------------26/42 (61.9%)

Yards --------------------------671--------------------------------514

TD/INT -------------------------6/1--------------------------------3/1

Sacks (taken) -------------------0----------------------------------4

Rushing Leader(s)----Jordan Parker/Drayton Calhoun--------Tevin Washington/ Zach Laskey*

Yards/Attempts(Avg)--176/33(5.3)--169/31(5.5)--------------300/59(5.1)----269/43(6.3)

Kicker------------------------Carlos Lopez-----------------------David Scully

Made/Attempts(Long)-----------5/5(43)----------------------------2/2(34)

Team Statistics----------------------------------Offense-------------

Points For----------------------33.3--------------------------------42.0

Avg. Time of Poss.-------------32:35-------------------------------31:33

Yards/Play----------------------6.3---------------------------------6.4

Points/Play---------------------0.55--------------------------------0.54

3rd Down Conversion % --------52.0%------------------------------46.3%

Team Statistics----------------------------------Defense-------------

Points Against------------------24.7--------------------------------21.3

Points/Play(Against)------------0.35--------------------------------0.37

Pass Yards Allowed-------------245.7-------------------------------240.8

Rush Yards Allowed-------------157.7-------------------------------128.0

Sacks/Game(Given)--------------1.5---------------------------------1.3

Takeaways/Game----------------3.0---------------------------------1.3

First Downs Given(Penalties)-----1.0---------------------------------4.3

Final Notes

Time of possession will be key in this game, both teams need the clock to score and neither defense is particularly stout. I expect a lot of 3rd and 1 situations in this game and whichever team can convert will wear down the other's defense.

Middle Tennessee has been gearing up for this game since the off-season and is coming prepared off of a bye-week. The Blue Raiders have cut down on their rushing yards allowed from 229.6 to 157.6 since last season. Georgia Tech is caught in a look ahead spot and is likely looking past MTSU to Clemson next week.

*Zach Laskey is listed as probable as of this writing and will likely see limited play time against MTSU.

If this one can be kept close, Logan Kilgore is an underrated quarterback and led his team to score the 24th most points in the nation in the 4th quarter last year at 8.4/game.

Strength of Schedule is the real deciding factor for the points spread of this game and I'm not dancing around it. The Blue Raiders have already lost to an FCS team for their first game of the year and Georgia Tech has only lost to Virginia Tech (in OT) and Miami (in OT).

I think these teams line up much more equally than the linesmakers are giving them credit for and I expect this to turn into a viable game.

My Play

+27.5 @ -110 5u

ML @ +2800 1u * This is purely a value play, I only give MTSU a 7-9% chance to win this game, but at 28:1 it's hard to pass up. Also, this game just happens to be on my birthday and I can't think of a better gift than a +2800 live dog.

The End

Thank you for reading and as always please feel free to post anything and everything. I read all comments and continue to check picks against any new data presented here. This is a write-up and contains some of the information I use but not all for the sake of time. I hope this information is useful, despite which way the information is used. Again, Thank you for reading!

[HOT WINGS]

I like the play and also played it. I agree Kilgore is under rated I think Midd. Tenn has the offense to keep this with in number also, as long as they dont turn the ball over a lot. Not sure about SU but I have seen crazier things happen. GL

[Urbanwildlife]

As always, an exceptional write up by you. Good luck!

[guy Fawkes]

happy birthday to me!! congratulations to anyone that followed or bet them of their own accord.

[pulledclear]

Great call! Took the the +25 but Couldnt pull the trigger on the ML. Great Capping!

[Seattle Slew]

Great call on this one.

Wonder if this will be the end for Paul Johnson at Georgia Tech. The incredible thing is when Chan Gailey was fired, the president or AD said something to the effect of "we want to compete for national titles here at Georgia Tech." So, they hire a coach who runs a triple-option offense only seen at service academies? In that system, he can't recruit any talent at QB or WR, and his defense was better at Navy the last 3 years. Johnson also thinks Al Groh was the answer on defense.

[paranoyd androyd]

how much did you have on the ML? great work

[Snowball]

research pays off, great pick.
i got pasted on a ML parlay with GT, did no research on it,
they were actually -6200 when I set the first parlay !

[guy Fawkes]

how much did you have on the ML? great work

. I'm still fairly small time. only had 1 unit($50).

[Snowball]

and happy birfday ! lol

Also, this game just happens to be on my birthday and I can't think of a better gift than a +2800 live dog.

[TheBetBuysDanK]

Great Call, G.F.! and happy birthday, brother! cheers!

[Mr Handicapable]

Great call on this one.

Wonder if this will be the end for Paul Johnson at Georgia Tech. The incredible thing is when Chan Gailey was fired, the president or AD said something to the effect of "we want to compete for national titles here at Georgia Tech." So, they hire a coach who runs a triple-option offense only seen at service academies? In that system, he can't recruit any talent at QB or WR, and his defense was better at Navy the last 3 years. Johnson also thinks Al Groh was the answer on defense.

Very nice one & Happy Birthday. Don't agree w/this guys post though....GT just put Stephen Hill WR out in the 2nd round (I think?) and WR-Thomas (Broncos) from a few yrs back. There is alot of QBs that run better than they throw too but Groh sucks...give him that much. MT did catch the break of GT looking ahead and they're scrappy ala Ball State.

[RJKing]

thread of the year! WOW, congrats to you!

[guy Fawkes]

and happy birfday ! lol

Great Call, G.F.! and happy birthday, brother! cheers!

Very nice one & Happy Birthday.

Thank you for the 'happy birthdays'! Maybe I was fishing a little, but its very much appreciated.

Thank you all around for the good feelings and congratulations, the times when I'm actually able to post useful stuff on the SBR forums and hit that one crazy shot (and hopefully have someone follow me) makes up for the hours of research. Cheers all, hope everyone's day has been going just like you planned it!

[Urbanwildlife]

Hey SBR Forums! So my last write up got hosed pretty badly on a fumble in the end-zone that appeared to break the plane first. Ah well, wasn't quite as bad as some of the calls in the NFL this last weekend so I guess we just move on. We're moving on to the always loud Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta for what should be another ground game this weekend. I'm trying a new format for this write-up in an attempt to make this easier to glance at and take a fraction of the time to write (we'll see how it goes).

Disclaimer & Record

I try to choose games no one is talking about. I cannot predict which games are going to be talking points and may occasionally overlap into the "popular" discussions. For the most part I will try and write up an angle or a play on which I don't think many people are going to be doing research. I will never write on a bet that is greater than -175 and will try to find as many underdog opportunities as possible. My write ups are almost always going to be biased as I am portraying why I am personally betting on the game. They are not complete and should never be taken as gospel. If you want a 360 degree view, do further research (as all posters and bettors should be doing anyway).

2011 NCAAF Write Ups 11-11 (+8.3u)

2012 NCAAF Write Ups 1-2 (-3.6u)

-----Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets-----

Quarterback---------------- Logan Kilgore -------------------- Tevin Washington

Completions/Attempts -------59/85(69.4%)-----------------------26/42 (61.9%)

Yards --------------------------671--------------------------------514

TD/INT -------------------------6/1--------------------------------3/1

Sacks (taken) -------------------0----------------------------------4

Rushing Leader(s)----Jordan Parker/Drayton Calhoun--------Tevin Washington/ Zach Laskey*

Yards/Attempts(Avg)--176/33(5.3)--169/31(5.5)--------------300/59(5.1)----269/43(6.3)

Kicker------------------------Carlos Lopez-----------------------David Scully

Made/Attempts(Long)-----------5/5(43)----------------------------2/2(34)

Team Statistics----------------------------------Offense-------------

Points For----------------------33.3--------------------------------42.0

Avg. Time of Poss.-------------32:35-------------------------------31:33

Yards/Play----------------------6.3---------------------------------6.4

Points/Play---------------------0.55--------------------------------0.54

3rd Down Conversion % --------52.0%------------------------------46.3%

Team Statistics----------------------------------Defense-------------

Points Against------------------24.7--------------------------------21.3

Points/Play(Against)------------0.35--------------------------------0.37

Pass Yards Allowed-------------245.7-------------------------------240.8

Rush Yards Allowed-------------157.7-------------------------------128.0

Sacks/Game(Given)--------------1.5---------------------------------1.3

Takeaways/Game----------------3.0---------------------------------1.3

First Downs Given(Penalties)-----1.0---------------------------------4.3

Final Notes

Time of possession will be key in this game, both teams need the clock to score and neither defense is particularly stout. I expect a lot of 3rd and 1 situations in this game and whichever team can convert will wear down the other's defense.

Middle Tennessee has been gearing up for this game since the off-season and is coming prepared off of a bye-week. The Blue Raiders have cut down on their rushing yards allowed from 229.6 to 157.6 since last season. Georgia Tech is caught in a look ahead spot and is likely looking past MTSU to Clemson next week.

*Zach Laskey is listed as probable as of this writing and will likely see limited play time against MTSU.

If this one can be kept close, Logan Kilgore is an underrated quarterback and led his team to score the 24th most points in the nation in the 4th quarter last year at 8.4/game.

Strength of Schedule is the real deciding factor for the points spread of this game and I'm not dancing around it. The Blue Raiders have already lost to an FCS team for their first game of the year and Georgia Tech has only lost to Virginia Tech (in OT) and Miami (in OT).

I think these teams line up much more equally than the linesmakers are giving them credit for and I expect this to turn into a viable game.

My Play

+27.5 @ -110 5u

ML @ +2800 1u * This is purely a value play, I only give MTSU a 7-9% chance to win this game, but at 28:1 it's hard to pass up. Also, this game just happens to be on my birthday and I can't think of a better gift than a +2800 live dog.

The End

Thank you for reading and as always please feel free to post anything and everything. I read all comments and continue to check picks against any new data presented here. This is a write-up and contains some of the information I use but not all for the sake of time. I hope this information is useful, despite which way the information is used. Again, Thank you for reading!

Great call once again Guy! I know you enjoyed that stroll to the pay window!