[guy Fawkes]

Hey all! This one may be a bit more brief as I seem to have timed out in my original post and I don't have the full time to give to this write up. For the record if anyone knows how to pull the auto-save back from an expired post I would greatly appreciate the insight. Anyway, I decided to take a trip down to Vegas last weekend to watch my La Tech game and had a lot of fun in the process. This week we're traveling from the down and out Robertson Stadium in Houston to the down and out Michie Stadium in West Point where the Army Black Knights play host to the Northern Illinois Huskies in what should be a ground-n-pound clinic.

Disclaimer & Record

I try to choose games no one is talking about. I cannot predict which games are going to be talking points and may occasionally overlap into the "popular" discussions. For the most part I will try and write up an angle or a play on which I don't think many people are going to be doing research. I will never write on a bet that is greater than -175 and will try to find as many underdog opportunities as possible. My write ups are almost always going to be biased as I am portraying why I am personally betting on the game. They are not complete and should never be taken as gospel. If you want a 360 degree view, do further research (as all posters and bettors should be doing anyway).

2011 NCAAF Write Ups 11-11 (+8.3u)

2012 NCAAF Write Ups 1-0 (+3.0)

Northern Illinois Huskies @ Army Black Knights

Northern Illinois Huskies

The Huskies of last year are definitely missing Chandler Harnish, arguably the best QB to play on their side of the field. NIU does only return 3 starters on offense, but 8 starters on defense. The Huskies' defense is very strong against the run this year, allowing 139 rushing yards on 49 attempts by Iowa and 63 yards on 33 attempts by Tennessee-Martin (FCS) (Note: this figure does include sacks), a 2.4 yard/carry average. Jordan Lynch (QB jr) has thrown for 268 yards on 25 completions of 41 attempts this year and maintains a QB rating of 119.1. Lynch is a dual threat quarterback, leading the team in this young season in rushing yards with 179 yards on 29 carries. Lynch is flanked by Leighton Settle (RB jr) who has opened up this season 139 yards on 31 attempts.

Army Black Knights

For any that may not know, the Black Knights playbook is nearly all run plays. Army's Trent Steelman has started this year throwing only 3 completions on 8 attempts and handing over 2 interceptions besides. Army does have a dual-RB system with 2 very good backs in Raymond Maples and Terry Baggett, in their first game they combined for 207 yards on 32 carries, a 6.5 yards/carry average. Army does return 8 starting offensive players and 9 defensive players. This is a returning defense however that allowed an average of 6.1 yards per play, 30.8 points per game and 88.9% red zone scoring. The offense on the other hand returns only 22.1 points per game and rushing the ball 86.62% of the time, needing 55.7% of the time of possession to move the ball. The Black Knights do not return either their starting punter or kicker from last year. Chris Boldt (P sr) has seen the field a few times and seems reliable, but Dan Grochowski (K fr) is completely unproven and has only kicked a single extra point in his young career.

Final Notes

This one really comes down to which breaks first, the NIU defense or the dual-RBs for Army. NIU has already proven to be a great run stopping team and Army only knows how to play one way.

Look for Army to eat the clock using their motions pre-snap and short runs.

Last year this game ended 49-26, but included both Harnish speeding the NIU offense along and 20 points put up in the 4th quarter by Army against 2nd-stringers.

Army is notorious for turning over the ball, already having gone 3-0 for turnovers in their first game against San Diego State and 3-2 in last year's game against NIU.

My Play

Northern Illinois -3 @ -110 4u

Army TT u 23 @ -110 2u

The End

Thank you for reading and as always please feel free to post anything and everything. I read all comments and continue to check picks against any new data presented here. This is a write-up and contains some of the information I use but not all for the sake of time. I hope this information is useful, despite which way the information is used. Again, Thank you for reading!

[chieq]

I couldn't agree with you more. I think the line is off because what Army did to Northwestern last year in their home opener. Bottom line, NIU's defense will shut down their offense and as long as they can put up a few points they should cover with no problem. NIU putting up points is the only thing that concerns me. I still think this is the best play of the weekend.

[venture]

Army as a home dog last 10 years ATS 10-22. From 2006 to 2011 5-17 ATS.

[Vinnie Paz]

Nice, i as well like this line a lot.
Stick around fawkes, ill be on the lookout this year

[Demonata]

Guy Fawkes I think I talked with you last season? I think it was about utah state?

[Nittany Lion]

Everybody on NIU lol, makes me worried now.

[guy Fawkes]

Army as a home dog last 10 years ATS 10-22. From 2006 to 2011 5-17 ATS.

I didn't come across that figure, but that is quite encouraging. Nice find.

Guy Fawkes I think I talked with you last season? I think it was about utah state?

Yup that was me! I try to come in for college football season (and a little NFL when I can't help myself) and then dip around a bit when NCAAB starts up and then fade away from SBR and the television around baseball season.

Yeah, I live in Logan, UT so I'm always rooting for Utah State. I try not to write them up anymore just because I am too emotionally attached and I'm biased.

GL to ya this season, bud!

[Azshadios]

i like the under on this game since army does run 90% of the time=chew a lot of clock

[Demonata]

I didn't come across that figure, but that is quite encouraging. Nice find.



Yup that was me! I try to come in for college football season (and a little NFL when I can't help myself) and then dip around a bit when NCAAB starts up and then fade away from SBR and the television around baseball season.

Yeah, I live in Logan, UT so I'm always rooting for Utah State. I try not to write them up anymore just because I am too emotionally attached and I'm biased.

GL to ya this season, bud!

Nice man ya I live in utah too.

[Demonata]

I bet you were happy when they beat utah. Ya I am emotially biased too because I like BYU so much. Best of luck with your plays man. What you doing for the big game today?