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Week 2 "The Week Everyone Overreacts"
Oddsmakers, and sportsbettors alike overreact to the results of one game, with more than likely meaningless results. Additionally many teams played glorified scrimmages(OK St.), some overcame an inordinate amount of turnovers to be competitve(Syracuse), and others outplayed their spreads in anonymity(Duke).
This week provides great situations that arrive annually, and provide profittable results for spot bettors.
For example
What's good Hoolihans? You are so right. I am ready for this Saturday. Good luck!
wicked sharp!
Looks like PSU, Iowa, Zona, Florida are a few of the teams to get dumped on with overreaction
For example I keep the game of the year lines released by the Golden Nugget specifically for week 2. It helps me spot the overractions by oddsmakers. Cincy on the GOY sheet is -5, but currently -3.5 @Pinny. USC is -21 on GOY, and -26 currently. OK St -9.5 GOY, and -12.5 currently. Neb -6.5 GOY, and -4.5 currently. All of those line discrepancies have created opportunities for myself, as I see value.
Next, Stanford struggled mightly vs San Jose St. I predicted B4 the season that w/o Luck, and Harbaugh this team would lose most of their competitive edge. Stanford has unreal standards academically, which removes the chance of getting a consistent amount of top recruits. Without the toughness of Harbaugh, and talent of Luck, this team can be faded. Add the fat that this is a revenge game for Duke, and we have a play.
The plays
Cincy -3.5
Syr +26
Zona +12
Neb -4.5
Duke +15.5
Leans
NW +3
What about Oregon State +8 vs. Wisconsin? Are the Beavers any good this season, or is this line overreacting to the Badgers' near-meltdown at home vs. UNI?
really like all of these except for zona (no opinion on that one). glOriginally Posted by HoulihansTX
Sounds good HTX. Good luck.
I have not looked into either of these teams. But nothing points to Oregon St improving from last year record.
to take duke seems to be a bit of an overreaction on the one game each team has played to this point, i think. but seeing how poorly stanford moved the ball you may be right.
Duke, NW, and Cincy are opposite overreaction. Those are just plays?
Wisc is really overrated, but it's an overreaction. If they rolled by 45 they could be -10 to -14
i like -
Vandy +3
Iowa -4
Georgia +3.5
With you on the Cuse. Thats my first goy of the year
Last edited by pimpinaces; 09-03-12 at 06:22 AM.
I played Hawaii +42 last week but I'm gonna play SC up to -31 this week based in an improved defense. I know it was just Hawaii but they a whole lot better than the last 2 years week 1. The offense looked good. Would have covered 42 but Lee and Woods had some deep ball drops.
Houlihans, There is a game I think might be under the radar? I Locked in last night w/Bowling Green -14 over Idaho. BG didnt play bad against Gators and Idaho lost at home 20-3 to E.Washington. Your thoughts?
Thanks Noles
Duke is a play I have had in mind, b/c of the obvious regression Stanford will face without Luck/Harbaugh.
NW is a play due to Vandy being a road fav of any kind.
Cincy, well I do not understand why they are lesser of a fav, than the GOY sheet. Pitt just lost handily to a D1AA, and does not seem like a fluke. Nevertheless betting line discrepancies from the GOY lines makes Cincy a play.
Oregon St has been bad for the past two years, and Wisky beats up on bad teams. I see a blowout.
I like NC State in a bounce back game at UCONN. Glennon is still a quality SR QB and I dont believe UCONN will be able to take advantage of the NC State secondary due to the speed on the edges being far less for the Huskies in comparison to what State saw last week. Keep in mind UCONN ranked 113th in pass D last year.
3-2 on the actual plays, and 1-0 on the leans.
Last edited by HoulihansTX; 09-09-12 at 06:30 PM.
houligans sharper than chinsaw
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