Middle Tenn is the kind of team that a Louisville type offense puts up about 600 yards against. The Blue Raiders are smaller and slower, and that combination doesn't work well against a Petrino offense. Pair that with the fact that the Cards don't settle for a lot of field goals and you've got a recipe for a cover on this kind of spread, especially when you look at the Raiders offense which is fully capable of stopping themselves. The value in this line is a result of injuries to Louisville's starting QB and RB. No matter, the offense seems to function just as well under Cantwell and company.
I'll be avoiding the total on this game as the result will likely be determined by how many garbage points Louisville gives up in the end and whether the MTS offense is able to take out the garbage.
The likelihood is that Louisville will win this game by more than 30 points, therefore I'll be playing Louisville -29.5. The line loses its value and should be considered a noplay at 31 points.
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