[drnkyourmlkshk]

Hello to all-

Before anyone asks why the Alan Boston reference in a college football section when he is a college hoops (mainly) capper. I have a lot in common with the guy from what I can tell and after listening to several interviews and playing cards with him online and once live at the Mirage way back in the day when I had hair and he had long hair that goes to show you that my age.

Much like Boston I make my living day to day but I am not a professional handicapper, I'm a poker player first.. well actually I'm a son first but that is a different anology. I've played cards my whole adult life everywhere from Foxwoods to Commerce and most places in between. I am not a tournament player but rather much like most sick degens like myself prefer the instant gratification of cash games. I am not fond of my lifestyle choices or my occupation whether it brings me a steady income or I have to sell action during the harder times that people like myself experience. I am mostly a happy go lucky guy with a self loathing need to be in action. I am well educated and am mostly down to earth and often have no trouble sharing my opinions on anything and everything, it's just who I am right or wrong I suppose.

Any who now that diatribe is over I suppose I should share what I do during every day of every year for at least a few minutes of everyday but mostly for hours. i study and research College Football it has been a hobby of mine for 2 years now. I began betting college football in o8 clueless and scared, square money as they come. Blindly following other supposed sharp bettors I had met over the summers at the WSOP cash games. Losing was miserable the 1st 2 seasons to the point that led me to the point that I had to drop down in limits in my normal games as my bankroll was being affected substancially.

I tried it all in the beginning and I have some serious advice for you new bettors never ever follow or pay for a tout service I will not out any particular snakes but I played cards with one of these jackasses about 4 years ago and he not being aware that I was following him admitted he didnt know who he had selected as his game OF THE MONTH a week prior. To this day I have never felt anger like I did as I called him every name in the book while he smirked and called the floor...Lesson learned.

I even had the epiphany to pay someone to build me and a partner a model. Here's some other advice you are not Billy Walters or Hiralbos you can have 20000 computers made but if you don't understand what it is telling you not only just wasted your money you are about to lose a whole lot more in the future.

The only way I ever made money was watching the games intently by myself and then following my gut after carefully thinking every scenario about the next weeks opponent. I did meet a sharp one day at the wynn who helped with a few things that I can and will share about Reverse line movement and getting the early number for middling and I owe him alot.

In August 2009 there was a very good OE game at Hollywood Park, CA that 4 guys played in on tilt nightly for weeks that it was like stealing money everytime you sat even with the beats you were taking because no one ever folded that if you could withstand the beats you were gonna do well. I made a promise to myself that whatever money I made after I covered my monthly nut that I would use that as my bankroll for the entire year for sports betting I really wanted to give it one last go. I was 33 and had played cards for 12 years everyday of my life and 2 years illegally as a minor I was a fish then so who cared I came out with a total roll of 3900$ after 3 weeks lol that isnt much I realized but it gave me some wiggle room and i could play a 100$ a side and 50$ a total and that was a 1/4 what i was betting a game the year prior but this was gonna be just me and the books and I really wanted to do it all on my own.

I would play cards every morning and then go to the library or a sportsbook where it was empty and started writing down stats, grading every player but mostly coaches, motivation factors and recruiting classes. They say the only people who really lose alot of money in sports is the nitwit who thinks he has an edge, can't spot the fish at the table syndrome is a good one as well. I didnt wanna be that guy, I've been the fish at a table many times in my life and it's not a area where I wish to repeat. I didnt make but 2 bets the whole first 3 weeks of that NCAA season as I really wanted to make sure I had a few winners, I dont chase much something that took me 10+ years to learn on the felt.

I made 101 picks that first year and went 54-38-9 I didn't make alot of money, I lost money.
I spent so much time watching the games, studying the games and the evermoving lines I forgot to play cards mostly. I had never found joy like that though and it's why when everyone is watching baseball or college hoops tournaments (which I also bet a little on every year bceause Im retarded) I'm reading somewhere about 3,4,5 star recruits and coaches who are idiots getting 2 million a year to save a shitty program from becoming obsolete.
It brings me great joy to aquire knowledge about anything whether it be the energy crisis or Larry Fedora leaving his best team in S. Miss to go to tar heel country strictly for the money. He is a complete dunce btw.

I will start releasing some plays here in this thread but also if you wanna discuss a coach or your teams chance I have developed a preseason power ranking of almost every team. Excluding the WAC (what a joke that conference is nowadays just sad really) and the sunbelt as I don't like reading about teams that don't play for any purpose other than to play.

Last year I had my best of the 3 years I have done this and went 131-108-6 and moved up to 220$ a wager with a 18k bankroll. I know some may criticize my bankroll for being somewhat small for that many wagers but I'm comfortable with it and it has taken 3+ years to build.

I'll try to help anyone who asks for anything and if you are in LV during the WSOP please Pm me and Ill buy you a beer. I'm trying to give back a little to alot of people who helped take the time to give insight to a guy who really didnt deserve it. I'm not able to gaurantee winners like some on here and Im unsure if I even want the tailing or fading comments but I will try my best to provide consistent insight and of course some good plays.

Thanks alot, MILK

[drnkyourmlkshk]

After looking over a lot of players leaving for the draft, graduation, transfer requests.

I have to say i have no idea how Alabama can make a run at repeating. Nick Saban is a genius on many levels and a top notch recruiter obviously. However he loses 14!!.. starters! I know they have Eddie Lacey to replace Richardson and that pounding running game however you can't tell me McCarron's gonna ease into throwing in critical situations when he has lost his center, a all american caliber gaurd in Mccullen. Even if they have gaurds and centers for days who step in for him to throw. Who is he throwing the ball to? They also lost Marquiz Maze their speed guy and Darius Hanks their short yardage go to guy.

The defense of the Tide tales the brunt of the damage this season. 4 all americans left for the NFL and left early Barron, Kirkpatrick leave the secondary and Upshaw, Hightower leave right behind them in the NFL draft order and rightfully so. They got their championship and have no reason to stay when those big paydays are awaiting. However they also lose DT Chapman who was a interior run stopper much like Brockers from LSU without the size. They lose Menzie the corner who played opposite of Kirkpatrick and another LB in Harris.

With all of these guys leaving I have the Tide losing 2 games minimum, now I know they have had 2 consecutive top 10 recruiting classes and Saban will get the most out of these players but I think we will see them continue to be in the top 10 all season I believe there will be many challenges and close games throughout all of 2012.
Anyone with any insight or an opinion I'm overlooking maybe please lemme know I'd really appreciate it.

Oh and thank god Saban can coach well. Al Golden of Miami loses 15 players and to say he might be on suicide watch if not for that 1.8 million dollar a year salary would only be a slight exageration. I have Saban as a A+ or a 97 and I have Golden as a 62. Fading Miami in the beginning of the season might be worth a look

Coaches who still have jobs but I'm unsure of how list
Kirk Ferentz-Iowa
Minnesota -Jerry Kill
Rice - David Baliff
Army- Rich Ellerson
Notre Dame - Brian Kelly (really dislike this guy. (His screaming and pulling his kids helmets on the sideline while he forgets to call time outs and teach them fundamentals like goal line formations) Loses his kids from every program to transfers & it seems to be a mystery to him on how.
Boston College- Frank Spaziani - Don't get me started

Coaches who always suck but get alot of praise
Jimbo Fisher
Charlie Weiss
Skip Joltz

Til next time MILK

[drnkyourmlkshk]

Bought alot of futures today and used 3 online books and 2 live books. Ill be hedging a certain % of all these at some point I hope. If somehoe die of dairy poisioning (just diagnosed lactose intolerent recently fml) please make sure someone contacts my mom and tell her put the house on clemson!
Units 250$ per book in parenthesis. If you wanna know why I selected something feel free to Pm or ask.

National champs
LSU +550 (Bellagio)1/3 u
Georgia +2550 (Venetian)1/3u
W. Virginia +4000 (Bovada)1/3u

Big ten champs I wish OSU was capable of being a bet
Wisconsin +250 (5dimes) 1/3 u
No value on michigan and cant see nebraska or penn st, illinois doing much.

Big 12 (all 5d)
West Va +550 1.2 units
Texas +400 1/2 unit
K state +1100 1/2 unit
Oklahoma +140 1/2 unit

Pac 12
Usc +170 (bovada) 1 unit
Oregon +230 (5d) 3/4u
stanford +2400 (5d) 1/4 u

SEC (all on Legends)
LSU +225 2 units
Georgia +550 2 units
Alabama +220 1 unit
S. Carolina +1150 1 u

5dimes
for the rest Acc
clemson +535 1/4 unit
Nc state +2250 1/4 unit
FSU +135 1/2 unit

[Inkwell77]

Interesting post! Thanks!

[drnkyourmlkshk]

Lol thanks inkwell I have no idea how you found it. I come here everyday to share my thoughts via pm w a regular poster. Im +11.8 units going into week 9 but have hit a small bump in the road as I was just 4 units short of my goal 3 weeks ago.
If florida wins the BCS im screwed on every future

[drnkyourmlkshk]

Might as well share some plays for the upcoming week. I got at the opening bell today.
Oklahoma -9 i would take oklahoma -14 too as well which I was expecting to have to.
I dont think Notre Dames offense can put 21 on the board& they havent faced anyone with a offense at the level of the sooners. Also Oklahoma needs a convincing win to get back to where the expectations of that program lies.
Ucla+7.5
ASU is very overvalued currently and I have no idea why. Theyre a fun, exciting young team but they have one of the smallest home field advantages in the pac 12 & graham is a bad coachin pivitol games.
Also we saw last weak vs oregon they have holes up front & i expect ucla to have very little trouble moving the ball on the ground.
Ohio st+3
This is the books over reacting to a qb injury like ive never seen.
I wouldve taken -3 but this is a gift. 1st off if you think urban meyer hadnt planned for a player who carries the ball 20 times a game being gimpy or unable to start a game here or there you are sadly mistaken. Also i love how osu can score at will and when they need a stop they go out and get one.
Penn state has shocked alot of people this year and Obrien has shown that he can still call a heck of a game but this is not temple, iowa, ohio, etc this osu squad can score and put pressure on the qb. I think osu wins this game outright w or without miller.
Leans on auburn +14
Nc state +8
Louisville -4
Kent st. +13.5
Tulane +4

[drnkyourmlkshk]

Louisville -3.5
Still a little drunk from celebrating a very large win but lets see what I can do as far as a write up. Bridgewater is a sleeper for heisman and Louisville i have as a 88 power ranking and I have Cincy turning into what I had them before the season began (79) theyve played much better than preseason expectations.
Im a charlie strong guy he gets his kids up for big games & also switches gears endlessly when facing opponents. He has no issues putting the points in the board with his huge offensive weapons and I can see that Cincy has had issues when Legeuix is under pressure only putting up 23 on toledo is showing me tge regression I expected back in may.
I had cincy over valued this week and this young team might really plummet if falling behind. Ill hold off for 3 & buy the hook at -125 if given the option but im comfortable laying up to 6 here.
Bol guys

[drnkyourmlkshk]

Georgia +7-115 I know Richt sucks in big games but I have these teams close and on a neutral site i made the line FLA-3 without Georgia coming off a bye. I ignored +6 i cannot ignore 7 my push equity is high here but I like the bulldogs. I have no idea why them and Texas's defense suck so bad but lets hope just one sat they show up like they shouldve been all year.
UCF-2.5
Marshall blows out a bad, terrible s. Miss team and now theyre the cream of the crop of C-USA phil steele nailed this UCF team correctly this is the same UCF who hung with a OSU team for 3 quarters and had Braxton Miller running for his life. This game i had as -7 id layed 3.5
Ulm-s. Alabama 55over besides feeling that ULM might score 40 in the 1st half s. Alabama can score a little as well & while i think the 24 is a little low i think the total should be 63. ULM needs to make statements after last week & they might not lay off the gas pedal

[Inkwell77]

Georgia +7-115 I know Richt sucks in big games but I have these teams close and on a neutral site i made the line FLA-3 without Georgia coming off a bye. I ignored +6 i cannot ignore 7 my push equity is high here but I like the bulldogs. I have no idea why them and Texas's defense suck so bad but lets hope just one sat they show up like they shouldve been all year.
UCF-2.5
Marshall blows out a bad, terrible s. Miss team and now theyre the cream of the crop of C-USA phil steele nailed this UCF team correctly this is the same UCF who hung with a OSU team for 3 quarters and had Braxton Miller running for his life. This game i had as -7 id layed 3.5
Ulm-s. Alabama 55over besides feeling that ULM might score 40 in the 1st half s. Alabama can score a little as well & while i think the 24 is a little low i think the total should be 63. ULM needs to make statements after last week & they might not lay off the gas pedal

Great write-up, man

Georgia +7 seems solid. I would say Richt has proven more than Muschamp, some might disagree.
Georgia ML as well at +230 or more. Best qb in the SEC with Murray and just as much talent as Florida everywhere else. +230 on that seems great.
While Richt has not won many games versus Florida (3-8 su) but he has been a little better ats in this rivalry (5-6 ats). Margin of victory in this game for the past ten years has been slim (7 out of 11 years being 7 points or less).

[Catchn_Picks]

Thanks DRNK for such great write ups and you contribution to the board. I like much of the logic here.

[drnkyourmlkshk]

Thanks DRNK for such great write ups and you contribution to the board. I like much of the logic here.

Np but I was fairly tipsy the last two nights honestly lol.
I come on here and answer questions via pm for 2 posters and I like to read the silly stuff in the players talk sub forum.
I will tell you the numbers I am looking high and low for though
Iowa+7.5 i hate Ferentz but he does motivate his team well off of a loss and they will not attempt to turn this into a shootout as they dont have the weapons to do so. Theyre defense especially Hyde can keep this close.
K state -6.5
Arizona +7.5 (doubtful I know)
Wasshington +6 (very doubtful but the public has pushed hard on OSU all year and I have an outside shot i believe)
I dont post my plays normally and this will probably be the only week I do so. I was once told no one who wins gives away free plays unless they have a outside interest or simply want you to cheer for their pick and if you wanna hang out with strange men looking for you to admire their brilliance you can do that by working a 9-5 and his name will be boss and he will refer to you as his employee.
I have added a 10 pt 3 teamer (i will not discuss ncaa football teasing strategies as theyre in no way similar to the nfl and can be cruel to beginning investors)
nc state +17.5
Oklahoma pk
BYU +12.5
BOL this week and I will be at the tables all week and preparing to move to Canada for online poker purposes.
Best wishes MILK

[Catchn_Picks]

MILK...you got some kind of life man. Slaying the capping each week, a lifetime of betting experience and now a good enough online poker player to justify the move to a free country.

congrats man...you've earned it.

Thanks for sharing, if only for a brief while.

The very best on your move.

[drnkyourmlkshk]

MILK...you got some kind of life man. Slaying the capping each week, a lifetime of betting experience and now a good enough online poker player to justify the move to a free country.

congrats man...you've earned it.

Thanks for sharing, if only for a brief while.

The very best on your move.

Who do I send the check to?!

Ty although I'm not pleased with the move to Canada. FTP owes me 34k and I miss playing online 4-8 hrs a day I am a degen I suppose but I do crush online (2plus2 same name check o8 threads and WSOP trip reports) and hate Las Vegas and am dealing with a break up very poorly. It seems the most logical thing to do, I am fairly well off because of poker but this town is dying the fish are swimming in very shallow pools and it's not fun for them any longer and its become less fun for everyone involved I'm sure. If there weren't sportsbooks, good food and the 10 game mix games at Aria I'd choose Gary, IN or any other terrible place over this hell hole.
I go home to denver or travel to LA once a month minimum. Just a warning to anyone thinking of building a life in Las Vegas it's not really a great idea and you can forget meeting nice women and soft lines. You can find action which is why I came out here for but what the casinos do out here is murder raking 7$ in a 15-30 game etc or limiting your bet sizing if you have a clue what you do. In the past 4 years even this place has changed too much and the vibe has lost it's allure. Ill be leaving in april with the ever holding breathe of hoping our governement stops it's overly conservative outlook on online wagering and poker.
End rant lol

[Inkwell77]

Who do I send the check to?!

Ty although I'm not pleased with the move to Canada. FTP owes me 34k and I miss playing online 4-8 hrs a day I am a degen I suppose but I do crush online (2plus2 same name check o8 threads and WSOP trip reports) and hate Las Vegas and am dealing with a break up very poorly. It seems the most logical thing to do, I am fairly well off because of poker but this town is dying the fish are swimming in very shallow pools and it's not fun for them any longer and its become less fun for everyone involved I'm sure. If there weren't sportsbooks, good food and the 10 game mix games at Aria I'd choose Gary, IN or any other terrible place over this hell hole.
I go home to denver or travel to LA once a month minimum. Just a warning to anyone thinking of building a life in Las Vegas it's not really a great idea and you can forget meeting nice women and soft lines. You can find action which is why I came out here for but what the casinos do out here is murder raking 7$ in a 15-30 game etc or limiting your bet sizing if you have a clue what you do. In the past 4 years even this place has changed too much and the vibe has lost it's allure. Ill be leaving in april with the ever holding breathe of hoping our governement stops it's overly conservative outlook on online wagering and poker.
End rant lol

Good post.

Many things to learn in this post. I don't mess with Poker, but I can confirm the stuff about Vegas. Tough tough place to settle down and live a "normal"/sane life. Takes a special type of person to stick it out if that is not where you're from.

If only every city/town had Vegas style sportsbooks..... ah one can dream. Imagine pinnacle (or any shop with low juice that did not ban players for winning) up the street......

[TPowell]

Louisville -3.5
Still a little drunk from celebrating a very large win but lets see what I can do as far as a write up. Bridgewater is a sleeper for heisman and Louisville i have as a 88 power ranking and I have Cincy turning into what I had them before the season began (79) theyve played much better than preseason expectations.
Im a charlie strong guy he gets his kids up for big games & also switches gears endlessly when facing opponents. He has no issues putting the points in the board with his huge offensive weapons and I can see that Cincy has had issues when Legeuix is under pressure only putting up 23 on toledo is showing me tge regression I expected back in may.
I had cincy over valued this week and this young team might really plummet if falling behind. Ill hold off for 3 & buy the hook at -125 if given the option but im comfortable laying up to 6 here.
Bol guys

like your post here, but Charlier Strong has MAJOR ISSUES putting up points on the board when leading. He or OC Shawn Watson are VERY conservative when they lead by 10+ points and it has really hurt them this season ATS

[Catchn_Picks]

Who do I send the check to?!

Ty although I'm not pleased with the move to Canada. FTP owes me 34k and I miss playing online 4-8 hrs a day I am a degen I suppose but I do crush online (2plus2 same name check o8 threads and WSOP trip reports) and hate Las Vegas and am dealing with a break up very poorly. It seems the most logical thing to do, I am fairly well off because of poker but this town is dying the fish are swimming in very shallow pools and it's not fun for them any longer and its become less fun for everyone involved I'm sure. If there weren't sportsbooks, good food and the 10 game mix games at Aria I'd choose Gary, IN or any other terrible place over this hell hole.
I go home to denver or travel to LA once a month minimum. Just a warning to anyone thinking of building a life in Las Vegas it's not really a great idea and you can forget meeting nice women and soft lines. You can find action which is why I came out here for but what the casinos do out here is murder raking 7$ in a 15-30 game etc or limiting your bet sizing if you have a clue what you do. In the past 4 years even this place has changed too much and the vibe has lost it's allure. Ill be leaving in april with the ever holding breathe of hoping our governement stops it's overly conservative outlook on online wagering and poker.
End rant lol

Lived there 4 months and found it to be a "dead" city. All of life is about the Benjamins but LV is psychotic. It is the quintessential city for the phrase "love to visit but wouldn't want to live there." Good luck on the move and the online renewal.

Now that the evil FTP and PS has been crushed in the states (only so that the US can get their part of the pie), the major hotels are lining up with "free" poker sites...sort of a Beta test...it will not be long that online poker will reemerge with the "protection" of the government from the evil capitalists (for a fee of course). You will have unlimited choices of online play and a bunch of new fish that will pour in to this legal, government approved form of entertainment.

But the rake and taxes will be a bitch.

[drnkyourmlkshk]

like your post here, but Charlier Strong has MAJOR ISSUES putting up points on the board when leading. He or OC Shawn Watson are VERY conservative when they lead by 10+ points and it has really hurt them this season ATS

I have Butch as a 79 and strong as a 87 I do agree with your post of them playing soft when handed a lead but I also think that this Louisville team is very poised and has some experience if this game were to be a blowout who would be the suspect off the top of your head of doing getting the better of the other?
I had this line Louisville at -5 on neutral ground add in home field at 3 I come up with 8 the line dictates value for me and I rarely take home favs but this was one i liked along with oklahoma this week.

[gojetsgomoxies]

wasn't able to read much of it but it seems like really good content. thanks for posting.

i didn't understand the alan boston reference from my limited skimming.

[drnkyourmlkshk]

Lived there 4 months and found it to be a "dead" city. All of life is about the Benjamins but LV is psychotic. It is the quintessential city for the phrase "love to visit but wouldn't want to live there." Good luck on the move and the online renewal.

Now that the evil FTP and PS has been crushed in the states (only so that the US can get their part of the pie), the major hotels are lining up with "free" poker sites...sort of a Beta test...it will not be long that online poker will reemerge with the "protection" of the government from the evil capitalists (for a fee of course). You will have unlimited choices of online play and a bunch of new fish that will pour in to this legal, government approved form of entertainment.

But the rake and taxes will be a bitch.

Let me start off this post by saying I agree with your ideas especially about the beta testing and government free grab that they will soon pursue probably a few months after the election because no politician wants their name attached to something "immoral" around ballot season. Rake and taxes are always gonna suck.
The problem for a guy like me is I'm not looking for fish necessarily I am mix game pro (i do hate the term pro btw) and there are very few of us left but enough of us to make it worthwhile and I'm not naive enough to believe that people signing up at southpointpoker.org.gov are looking to play 30-60 badugi, o8 or stud 8 but I am positive that having the option of doing things that I love to do in the peace of mind and comfort of my own home should be my choice and will in the end better the quality of my life, There is nothing wrong with live poker however I dont know that I have ever looked forward to doing it, maybe occasionally and Im not sure that live players get the same enjoyment as online players.
I hate the heat, miss the mountains, hate the lack of culture, miss meeting real people who arent searching for a way to make their lives better but also the people around them. You can make money anywhere but enjoying life is pretty diffficult when that's your only priority and Las Vegas well thats everyones only priority whether they realize it or not.

[gojetsgomoxies]

where u live in canada? vancouver?

any insight into RLM for us. i see most people like the big moves but then i think you are getting bad line (i.e. i'd much rather have +19 than +17... of course i had no reason to think +19 was a good spread). i was thinking look at all RLM's (minimum 58% and a half point or 1 point movement) and figure out the quality from there.

i am also very interested in large movements that aren't reverse. seemed like everyone hated tulane with good reason after 4 games or so. but some of the line movements were very big. not certain there wasn't an injury factor. i guess i'm interested in public vastly overfading teams even if sharps stay away from game in general or go same way as public early.

[chunk]

Milk...you don't seem to be your average punter and right about LV. UCLA...Wash...Ohio St.

[drnkyourmlkshk]

Complete Card (please do not tail as i have had 2 losing weeks in a row and have no interest in posting on a regular basis) but I do feel fairly confident and have already started posting plays this will more than likely be the only week I do so.
Louisville-3.5 (market moved against me boo!)
UCLA +7.5
Oklahoma -9
Ohio st.+3 -115
UCF -2.5
Georgia +7
Iowa+7 (i'd bought hook but Iowa has had 0 games decided by exactly 7 in 2 seasons so of course theyre due)
K state -6.5
10 pt teaser 3 team -110
nc state+17.5
byu+12.5
oklahoma pk
6 pt 2 teamer
Colorado st pk
K state -1
ULM-S.alabama 55.5 over
NC state NC 56 under
Indiana Illinois 58 under
Bol to all
I loved new mexico, arizona and washington but couldnt get down when the market was right for the reason I played far too much pokerz this week and I have remembered to make that my top priority unlike many years.

[drnkyourmlkshk]

where u live in canada? vancouver?

any insight into RLM for us. i see most people like the big moves but then i think you are getting bad line (i.e. i'd much rather have +19 than +17... of course i had no reason to think +19 was a good spread). i was thinking look at all RLM's (minimum 58% and a half point or 1 point movement) and figure out the quality from there.

i am also very interested in large movements that aren't reverse. seemed like everyone hated tulane with good reason after 4 games or so. but some of the line movements were very big. not certain there wasn't an injury factor. i guess i'm interested in public vastly overfading teams even if sharps stay away from game in general or go same way as public early.

Moving in April is the plan

Yes in Vancouver. There are a lot of reasons for RLM and large movements alike.
College football totals first off are the most volatile market for middling or scalping groups or investors it is very rare to find a 3 point middle in any other market even nba where scoring is that much more rapid but in college football it is common to see a line move 3-7 points in a week. It takes very little money comparitably to other markets the exception is TV games obv.
your Tulane example is a good one but it also brings up how the lines move in a different way. There are 2 tout services that do create large movement. I will not mention either by name but both have many followers but one really only has a large following of sharps and they bet a very large unit size normally and they can spike a line up to 7 points in either direction only moments on release. Tulane was the biggest move twice this year week 4 &7 one side and one total I believe.
Your best bet to really get a good idea on these questions is to read justin7 book and to watch the steam on 3 particular times IMHO.
1. Opening bell Sunday at 5pm pt
2. Tuesday morning totals are now available and I like to compare the largest moves to my notes and all injury reports are usually available.
3. 5-10 minutes before gametime
as for RLM strictly it isn't a winning method on its own. Checking weather, injury reports, home away splits and maybe get some insight into who's moving the number will help.
Id say find one conference learn about it, know it inside and out and just focus on the line moves of that one conference for 2-3 weeks at a time if you agree with the way the money is moving you'll begin to really improve I know I have this year more so than ever even if my results aren't where I want them.

[drnkyourmlkshk]

Louisville -3.5
Still a little drunk from celebrating a very large win but lets see what I can do as far as a write up. Bridgewater is a sleeper for heisman and Louisville i have as a 88 power ranking and I have Cincy turning into what I had them before the season began (79) theyve played much better than preseason expectations.
Im a charlie strong guy he gets his kids up for big games & also switches gears endlessly when facing opponents. He has no issues putting the points in the board with his huge offensive weapons and I can see that Cincy has had issues when Legeuix is under pressure only putting up 23 on toledo is showing me tge regression I expected back in may.
I had cincy over valued this week and this young team might really plummet if falling behind. Ill hold off for 3 & buy the hook at -125 if given the option but im comfortable laying up to 6 here.
Bol guys

Isn't it funny as gamblers we look at a loss and say god I ran bad here! But in all actuality I had the right idea but got inpatient and took a bad number the line was -3 all dzy Thursday -115 my buying the hook wouldve made the bet -135 (-ev in theory and something I never do) but a push or a non bet is 330$ that would have me one step closer to the goal on the year and allowing me to start looking at new sports;( Variance is really a double edged sword when you look at the difference between a win, loss and added push equity in the long haul.
BOL to everyone today,

[Catchn_Picks]

Isn't it funny as gamblers we look at a loss and say god I ran bad here! But in all actuality I had the right idea but got inpatient and took a bad number the line was -3 all dzy Thursday -115 my buying the hook wouldve made the bet -135 (-ev in theory and something I never do) but a push or a non bet is 330$ that would have me one step closer to the goal on the year and allowing me to start looking at new sports;( Variance is really a double edged sword when you look at the difference between a win, loss and added push equity in the long haul.
BOL to everyone today,

Happened to me as well drnk:

I struggle with this so much. 3 is the most critical number in football. In the old days the books charged you 10 juice for any jump...then they got smart and really put a premium on 3 and somewhat 7. Now you really can't pay that juice on a regular basis just to get a push. I would pay that juice for a full point at -2.5 but you will rarely see that today.

Cat and mouse game and it got me last night.

BOL today.

[drnkyourmlkshk]

Took Notre Dame +13.5 to protect teaser and create a 4 point middle and a 13.5 point middle
Pretty decent day so far 5-3 with all tesers alive. Ohio st, ucf still pending still Lousiville stings so 5-4 meh

[drnkyourmlkshk]

Good day.
2-1 totals
1-1 teasers
6-3 sides
9-5 on the day
9-6 for the week.
Its been fun. Gl to all and if you have any questions on a team or a matchup I do check my pm box daily.

[drnkyourmlkshk]

Bought alot of futures today and used 3 online books and 2 live books. Ill be hedging a certain % of all these at some point I hope. If somehoe die of dairy poisioning (just diagnosed lactose intolerent recently fml) please make sure someone contacts my mom and tell her put the house on clemson!
Units 250$ per book in parenthesis. If you wanna know why I selected something feel free to Pm or ask.

National champs
LSU +550 (Bellagio)1/3 u
Georgia +2550 (Venetian)1/3u
W. Virginia +4000 (Bovada)1/3u

Big ten champs I wish OSU was capable of being a bet
Wisconsin +250 (5dimes) 1/3 u
No value on michigan and cant see nebraska or penn st, illinois doing much.

Big 12 (all 5d)
West Va +550 1.2 units
Texas +400 1/2 unit
K state +1100 1/2 unit
Oklahoma +140 1/2 unit

Pac 12
Usc +170 (bovada) 1 unit
Oregon +230 (5d) 3/4u
stanford +2400 (5d) 1/4 u

SEC (all on Legends)
LSU +225 2 units
Georgia +550 2 units
Alabama +220 1 unit
S. Carolina +1150 1 u

5dimes
for the rest Acc
clemson +535 1/4 unit
Nc state +2250 1/4 unit
FSU +135 1/2 unit

Its been a great year!!

[drnkyourmlkshk]

Hedging Nebraska ML 1/2 unit
on g tech +14
I bet 1/2 unit on Bama hoping and praying to god I lose
Anyone who tells you betting futures is -EV likes to gamble more than they'd like to admit and don't want to tie up their bankroll for too long.
good luck to all as always.
If Georgia wins it all it'll be my biggest payday in any form of gambling at once
goodluck to everyone sincerely

[Dexter]

oh damn....thought you had georgia +the pts....

[drnkyourmlkshk]

BOO! Its ok still a great year shouldve hedged more. I had Alabama ML and Goergia +7.5 obv dex. I wanted Georgia to win so f-ing bad but it wasnt meant to be with my conference futures I still win 6.1 units making my season +23.4 units with 1 unit on Georgia Tech +14 & of course my half unit on fsu to win the acc. It was a good season,
I'd love to bet the bowls but am currently playing as big as I ever have in LA at commerce & Hollywood Park I sincerely doubt that I'll get a opportunity to focus on capping all the games I want to. Dex it has been a great pleasure to trade so much info throughout the year I hit my goal far too late in the season to be able to focus on college hoops but like a cubs fan.. Maybe next year. BOL TO EVERYONE and for god sakes where is Alan Boston!?
This stuff college football is such a passion that I'm sure Ill start putting together my notebooks and power rating recruits in Mid March when all the poker action really slows down. Til next year guys.
Tc MILK

[drnkyourmlkshk]

I believe someone is trying to mess with me but a friend of mine just texted me and said that if a team ties for a conference championship then the books have the right to not pay due to there not be a clear cut winner that's not true is it and can someone tell me. I've been on hold at 5dimes for 21 minutes starting to worry!
Stanford was my huge winner btw and I thought K state and Oklahoma would both get paid or maybe reduced paid. It says pending on Oklahoma?!