The line opened with LSU as a 1 pt favorite but surprisingly they have been bet down to 2.5 pt dogs. If it moves half point to +3, HAMMER THE TIGERS 4 UNITS!! However, I don’t think it will so I’m happy to take the value on the ml for a SU Tigers win.
It doesn’t get any closer than this. Take out the earlier game in Tuscaloosa and you basically have two undefeated teams that played the same conference schedule. On the season LSU averaged 38.5 while Bama scored 36. Defensively, Bama gets those two points back allowing 8.8 with LSU at 10.5. Avg offensive and defensive yds per game slightly favors Bama. LSU has been better ATS going 10-3 with Bama only 8-4.
But look closer at non-common opponents in their schedules. Bama’s only notables are a child molester accommodating Penn St and an overachieving Vanderbilt. LSU beat two conf champions, one on a neutral field (Oregon) and another that just destroyed the ACC champion (W Virginia). AND they beat a tough Georgia team in what was basically an away game. Advantage Tigers.
Enough about schedules, these teams have already played. On the road, advantage LSU. Many claim Bama was the better team that night, and would have won if they’d only made their FGs. Well, they were playing at home after all, and they still couldn’t get it done. And those misses came from 44, 50 and 52 yds, hardly gimmes in college. A fourth FG was blocked.
But the key difference from that game will be QB Jordan Jefferson. Jarrett Lee started the first game, was ineffective throughout the first half and the LSU offense only moved the ball on their last series when Jefferson was inserted. Jarrett Lee threw two picks in that game, the second in the second half when Miles got cute and decided to reinsert him briefly.
Jefferson has finally taken over the offense after his early season suspension, and although Lee did a good job he simply doesn’t pose the dual threat that Jefferson does behind center. This enhanced diversity on offense makes all the difference as LSU fulfills, in what is basically a home game, its role as 2011 team of destiny. Go Tigers!
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Another LSU/Ala Thread .. But With Writeup!
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