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I do this to try to get others to write up games and share info... but most just lob out "Boise is a LOCK".Originally Posted by dredmahawkus
You can get a lot of info if people write up their games, I thought that was the whole idea here... but no.(sigh)
It helps, for example to see someone take AZ State and write it up and take a strong position, there are things that we do not all see or know about.
ok im ridin lets get this $$$$$
I always failed english....I wish I could write something without it sounding stupid! lol math was my strong subject!!!
Hey!
A guy on the NFL forum wrote up SD + 3 as his LOCK OF THE YEAR and at least he backed up his pick with a lot of information.
Whether I follow him or not, at least he pointed out a lot of factors for consideration.
Sometimes you learn and just stay away from Detroit when you read something that detailed. Or even go against if you dispute the approach and see the facts are not relevant (Cincy is 4-12 vs Cleveland last 8 yrs... who gives a shit?).
I just try to cover a few of the major issues motivation-running game-passing game-matchups-coaching-turf/home/away-QB vs QB-OL/DL so people can see that I did my homework then when I really like a pick add other factors.
I loved SD before I read that write up.....I got it +3 so kinda pounded it.....my only play so far in nfl this week. I made a small one on tenn tonight. I really think the higher ups are going to make indy lose to get their QB of the future. This is like the spurs when they were dead last in the league after just winning the nba finals.....get Duncan then win it again.
Great points Serbone. I've only been on this site a couple months but when I chime in I'm always trying to impart whatever I can to help fellow bettors. I hate all these "x team wins on this wager of mine or I won't post for a month" threads. Please add some value folks! I also hate all the pissing matches between posters, I could care less about that kind of worthless posting.
On a related note: many of great Bowl Games upcoming to make $$$ on folks. 2-0 so far!
Boise win was nice, definitely called the motivation correctly, AZ St did not show up other than QB and a few players with future possibilities and Boise wanted to win to go 12-1, they were # 7 in BCS but played in this shit bowl while GA, who they beat in GA by 14, and had 3 losses, plays on BOWL DAY Jan 2.
(Hey, I am not a big Boise activist, I know if they played in SEC they would lose 1-2-3 games...)
Something really wrong with AZ St, my theory was the benched hothead personal foul ridden AZ St star LB probably caused a minor internal mutiny amoung some of the players.
It was a nice blowout win, I'll take it.
Last edited by Serbone; 12-24-11 at 06:55 PM.
2-4, - 1.8*
2* SO Mississippi -7
Motivation, the key, is again tough to determine, The SO Miss coach is moving on to North Carolina, but insisted on coaching this game and they let him. Does he want to push the kids to victory and will they "buy in"... or will they treat this as fun in paradise, they feel snubbed winning the CUSA against Houston, they thought they should be in a bigger better bowl, perhaps The Liberty. How do you get into their heads? They are a veteran squad, including QB, will they be mentally tough and realize they will regret going out there and getting beat?
Nevada is used to going to Hawaii in league play, that is good they are familiar with the surroundings but bad, too, they are then not too excited to go to an in-conference field. They, too, might treat it as a vacation, though they have a good freshman QB… and they will want to build on him and the team for next year. Won their last game so they are not being punished for a loss. Teams that lost their last game sometimes are then scrutinized over the bowl prep period, gives coaches an extra excues to beat up on them.
It will be 80 degrees and windy 15 mph, the heat favors SO Miss a bit, the wind helps Nevada since they are a running team and balanced SO Miss passes the ball more often, it could hurt SO Miss QB more than Nevada but also allows SO Miss to play the run even more agressively, not fearing a long strike out of the "Pistol".
Strength of schedules are equal (# 97 Nevada #101 SO Miss) Nevada gets a lot of SOS credit for playing powerhouse Oregon but they were pounded 69-20 so I look at it as though that is not a solid indicator.
SO Miss is a MUCH more balanced “O”, can run and pass both, whereas Nevada lives on the ground, uses the unique “Pistol” run first offense that is difficult to deal with; however, SO Miss stopped running teams Navy and UCF very well though none were at Nevada’s caliber. SO Miss "D" is more balanced, better than Nevada. Nevada did not do well against good defensive teams that could focus on the run.
SO Miss did better against bowl caliber teams, though Nevada played some real top notch clubs, Nevada was blown out @ Oregon and @ Boise, lost to LA Tech and @ Utah State. SO Miss beat La Tech, lost @ Marshall, beat SMU, and won @ Houston (held Houston to 25 pts below season avg, in Houston!)
CUSA has won this bowl two years in a row, blowouts, Tulsa 62-35 against Hawaii and SMU 45-10 against this Nevada team in 2009. Interesting.
I say that SO Mississippi is a veteran club, with a senior QB, that did much better against bowl competition, is well balanced on "O" and has a solid "D" (stopped Houston) and will be focused enough to put away a one dimensional Nevada team and cover the spread. The coach will want them to have fun but came there to win and will sell them to push for a win.
Last edited by Serbone; 12-24-11 at 06:56 PM.
SO Miss = push, but I will take it.
UGLY ass game, terrible refs, SO Miss kids were not fired up, two very very long runs right up the middle, what were they expecting? And the wind was much much stronger than reported, gusts of 36!
That was the key, the wind was ridiculous. If you are sitting there at gametime you call and bet everything on the under!
That killed the huge SO Miss passing advantage, made it a much more tight knit game.
Though the Nevada freshman actually could throw pretty well, their top 3 WR's were out, if SO Miss could make it a shooting match, SO Miss romps, Sr. QB who broke Brett Favre's records gets big time attention, a la Kellen Moore swan song.
Nope.
That's why for these bowl games you really should not wager until the VERY last minute, there are always unknown suspensions and benchings and injuries are not always as well publicized as the regular season, and unusual high winds in places this time of the year, you just do not know, it affects the passing team, favors the running team, I mentioned that but thought it was 16mph not huge gusts of 36, and the 80 degrees was good for receivers, enables a very good feel for the ball.
Last edited by Serbone; 12-25-11 at 10:38 AM.
3* Missouri - 4.
Motivation is with Missouri. MU coach Pinkel wants this one BAD, wants to make an impression, he is coming back to MU. Missouri is going to the SEC, this game is in SEC country against a southern school needs to be won for recruiting purposes.
NC is with an interim coach, who will be D-coordinator at Ohio State, he is not pleased he did not get the NC job himself, so this is not optimal, earlier bowl games with ??? for next year, Az State was dead and SO Miss was flat with lame duck coaches.
All 12 NC games have been on natural turf, home and several away games for MU on artificial, as is todays game. HUGE. If it is wet, that helps MU even more.
Weather will be chilly, favors MU northern team a bit, the colder the better for MU.
MU can stop the run, NC starts with the run. MU has seen some GREAT offenses in the Big 12 and held their own as well as anyone. NC QB is good, but not the caliber of the teams that beat MU.
MU can run first very well and pass effectively on the roll out option, soph QB Franklin started slow but improved as the season progressed, I think MU will get 250 yds running and passing, 500 yards, NC will not get near that amount, they have stumbled a few times badly on "O", and on artificial turf that MU pass rush will be hard to block, faster than they are used to...
More motivated, well balanced squad, small favorite, turf and weather advantages, MU.
Last edited by Serbone; 12-26-11 at 03:41 PM.
we have been on the same side on every play so far! Just wish I got mizzou at -4! I have -5
GL but UNC covers this game.
I dont think UNC is going to want to be there in the rain and cold at the chucky cheese bowl! one of those games they put up 9 points!
Nice write-up, but I'm going the other way. In my opinion, Missouri is overrated and being given too much credit for their game against OU. Don't forget... they needed a furious come-back to defeat a very mediocre Texas Tech team in their own crib.
I've got a buck and a half on them winning the game.
another great call Serbone! UNC looks aweful!
who are we taking tomorrow? we have been on all the same plays so far....I am thinking pudue if I can get a 2.5 and lou ML +100.....still need to read some more on it.
A solid 3* win, MU 513 yds to 353, a lot of NC yards were desperation time passing yards after getting blown out.
NC had 36 running yards to MU's 337, absolute dominance.
The MU team was motivated, NC was not, the game was on MU's AT, MU was built to stop the run and the teams that beat them had superior passers, (Az State before they fell apart, OK, OK St, Baylor); UNC QB was OK, but not top notch.
MU had been coming on late in the yr, won its last 3, MU QB Franklin was a new starter this yr and struggled early but he really improved.
Tuesday: Purdue & W. Michigan, neither should be in a bowl, are you shitting me, and NC ST & Louisville, not too thrilling either.
3-4, + 1.8*. That last second Ohio TD to cover over Utah State was a goddam 6.3* swing. Shit.
Last edited by Serbone; 12-27-11 at 12:04 AM.
3-4, + 1.8* (6.3* swing on the last second Ohio TD against Utah State hurt, BAD)
3* Purdue -2
Motivation is again, not simple: 7-5 Western Michigan will be pumped to play a Big 10 BCS team, and you would think that would be “it”. And they won their last two. But at second glance, 6-6 Purdue won 2 of it's last 3 to get bowl eligibility and they are pumped, talking about getting back to the glory days, plus 4days ago they just renewed coach Hope's contract until 2016. The players KNOW that he will be there; it will be buinsses first, not an attractive warm weather vacation bowl trip. This ain't Hawaii. Hope is getting them into their first bowl game in awhile so he is building on something and will push the players for a win. 7-6 and a bowl victory is so much better than 6-7 and a loss to a MAC team. And WM players, in their heart, know if their coach is successful he will move on to a better program, maybe not next year, but the next. It is the nature of the MAC. I give the edge to Purdue. They will not take WM lightly. If it was a year in and year out bowl team from the Big 10 like, say Iowa, they would be disapointed playing goddam WM. Much different.
Weather… it is indoors. This favors Western Michigan, they throw almost exclusively, very little emphasis on their running game. Long passes and touch passes in a dome will be very accurate if QB Carder is “on”. He is probable with a shoulder problem but should be OK. Hope not. But "indoors" can also help the so-so Purdue passing game hit a few long passes against one on one coverage... that might not usually be realistic... when WM loads the box against the run.
Artificial turf favors Western Michigan a bit, their home field and a lot of away games were on AT. Purdue was on natural turf most of the time, but they they played 3 games on the crap @ Rice, @ Wisconsin, and @ Indiana so it won’t be quite as big of a factor as it was with NC, had played all 12 on NT.
Closest team? Western Michigan is a bit closer to Detroit than Purdue, but not significantly so. I do not know for a fact but I doubt either team will have a huge following to support the team. (yesterday’s game was a disgrace, the stands were empty)
Strength of schedule favors Purdue, BIG, # 62 to # 101. This is Sagarin, but IMO there is a bigger gap than this indicates. Purdue got pounded @ ND, lost by 6 @ Penn State, beat Illinois by 7, lost by 24 @ Michigan, were blown out @ Wisconsin, beat Ohio State by 3 and lost to Iowa by 10. WM was pounded by Michigan, lost by 3 @ Illinois, were crushed @ NI by 29, and lost by 3 @ Toledo. There were injury and timing issues for both teams, but overall you can see a clear advantage schedule wise to Purdue against bowl caliber teams.The Big 10 is superior to The MAC. There is almost NO defense in the MAC for the most part other than, say, Temple and Ohio. MAC can get some good skill players so there are a lot of points, but no "D" athletes at all. So WM was 0-4 against bowl teams, Purdue 2-5. The MAC has lost the last two in this bowl ATS, Ohio to CUSA Marshall and Toledo to Sun Belt Fla Int, both were close games. This is against The Big 10.
WM offense is all passing, I think one of THE most one dimensional in D-1. QB Carder is very good, very smart, and could start for a lot of Big 10 schools, and WR Jordan White is a star. Indoors and on AT it should be favorable, but with several weeks to prepare, and Big 10 athletes to execute the plan, I think Purdue will hold its own. I think WM is a bit vulnerable to a good pass rush, even in the MAC Carder took some hits for sacks and turnovers, which changed field position and possession. They cannot afford that here. A lot of the time, though, Purdue will drop in coverage, nickel and dime packages, even 3-8, their DB's are solid. Purdue actually is considered to have a good pass defense. On “O” is Purdue is balanced but likes to run first, is missing its # 1 back but # 2 back Shavers is a decent player and they have plenty of ball carriers and ways to run the ball. Purdue is good at run blocking (a bit weak at pass blocking but some of that was while being behind against the likes of Wisky, Michigan, etc) and WM run defense is very poor, ranked # 107, you have to think Purdue will successfully control the ball and keep WM off the field. WM allowed 300+ running yards @ Illinois. Purdue has some athletic receivers so they can throw deep here and there to keep WM honest.
Pudue is a small favorite at a neutral site... motivation favors Purdue when you combine it with their stronger SOS. I like a small favorite with a HUGE running advantage in these bowls. The Purdue “D” should be able to adjust to a one dimensional passing game better than WM will be able to do anything to stop a run first Purdue"O", it could not stop the run all year.
(Well, a couple of last minute suspensions... hurts Purdue "D" a bit!)
(All will be 1* - 5* for all bowls except one or possibly two games; play 2* as your usual one unit solid play, there will be one or possibly two 10* later in the bowl season, pending weather, injuries, other developments)
Last edited by Serbone; 12-27-11 at 03:49 PM.
I agree 100% again man!!! WM is just not in the same league as purdue. I made a comment earlier and said just because the red sox beat BC 27-2 in spring training doesnt mean they are going to the world series! totally different competition playing wisconsin ohio st ect then toledo and ball state! purdue should win this easy.
3* Louisville + 2.5
Motivation is almost equal IMO, both teams glad to be in a bowl but not thrilled nor disappointed. 7-5 Louisville is building on an exciting new QB which always is good, players know that they have an opportunity to win this game and build for next yr. Slight edge to Louisville.
Strength of schedules is about the same, Louisville # 66, NC State 80. 7-5 NC State lost 4 of 5 road games SU, though, whereas Louisville went 4-2. Louisville went 2-5 vs. bowl teams NC State went 3-4. Slight edge to Louisville based on road performance.
Turf is the same, they both played on natural as is the game tonight.
Weather is the same for both… they are from about the same latitude.
It is in North Carolina, but Charlotte is not that close to Raleigh, but it is more drivable so NC State is closer, but not a “home’ team. Again, I doubt there will be a big following from either team for this game.
Matchups, then, are the key. Louisville changed QB’s to Bridgewater who turned out to be The Big East Rookie of the Year and went 5-1 SU and ATS in their last 6 games. They went from 16 ppg to 25 with him. Louisville lost to respectable Pitt. Louisville can stop the run, it is their forte, and when NC State cannot run, they are in trouble. I think Louisville “D” is slightly better than NC State’s, though NC State can stop the run, too. NC State's QB Glennon can throw the ball well but is not mobile, and Louisville has sacked the QB often in 2011.
Small dog Louisville played well in their final six games and NC State has been a bit inconsistent on offense (last five: 0 pts @ Fla St, 13 vs NC, 10 @ BC before blowing out a lame-duck-sandwich-gamed Clemson team and a MD team that had thrown in the towel.(do not be deceived by the Clemson win at home, Clemson had clinched the ACC Championship game and was banged up to boot, NC State was playing for bowl eligibility). The Big East has beat the ACC SU the last two in this bowl, though they were tight games.
Last edited by Serbone; 12-27-11 at 03:31 PM.
Another solid win.
4-4 + 4.8*
Again, 5-3 & up 11.1* if not for goddam last second TD by Ohio vs 3* Utah State.
Shit. Of about 12 big turn-around plays, NC State got the best on 9 or so. Yardage and FD's were equal. The 65 INT return was the death blow, but 60+ and 35+ long passes in middle of game were killers, too, what kind of coverage was that? And the 4th and 1 failures by Louisville several times drove me nuts. And why the onside kick, NC State had their hands team in there?
If they played today, I would still go Louisville, but only 1*. That's gambling.
4-5, + 1.5*
3* AF + 4.5
4* Texas - 3.5
Last edited by Serbone; 12-28-11 at 11:56 AM.
on texas with ya......AF...I went the other way
Air Force covers! Loved it when I saw they were going for "2"!!!!!!!
5-5, + 4.5*.
AF back door cover makes up for the Ohio back door cover when Utah State shoulda-coulda blown them out but let them off the hook.
Solid win with Texas. Cal had no chance to score. Pounded by Texas "D", loaded with future NFL beef, and got back seveal key "O" players.
6-5, + 7.5*
I wrote up all rationale for picks, motivation, data, running game, passing game, matchups, injuries, coaching, weather, QB's, "D", "O", home team factor (who is close enough that it is a home game), veteran vs young teams, coaching change issues (lame duck), conference differences, strength of schedule, key player changes, trends, AT vs NT issues, you name it...
BUT people keep following and responding to loons that just announce "duh, I like Western Michigan, they have a great offense, it will be my biggest play of the year".
Why should I bother? (sigh)
you have one of the best write ups on here!! I appreciate it anyway!!Solid win with Texas. Cal had no chance to score. Pounded by Texas "D", loaded with future NFL beef, and got back seveal key "O" players.
6-5, + 7.5*
I wrote up all rationale for picks, motivation, data, running game, passing game, matchups, injuries, coaching, weather, QB's, "D", "O", home team factor (who is close enough that it is a home game), veteran vs young teams, coaching change issues (lame duck), conference differences, strength of schedule, key player changes, trends, AT vs NT issues, you name it...
BUT people keep following and responding to loons that just announce "duh, I like Western Michigan, they have a great offense, it will be my biggest play of the year".
Why should I bother? (sigh)
yeah when AF went for 2 I was screaming NONONONO lol
who you like today?? I dont think washington can keep up with Baylor in a dome. both Ds suck. should be a TD fest!
I am on baylor -7 -136 I got at my local yesterday when the line went down to 8.5 -101
ND and FL st I have no idea who to take. I can see it going either way. I guess if you believe in turnovers and D are more important then you should take FL st but I am just not sure. cant wait to see who you like and why! I am waiting for your play before I make one today!
good lookin serb thanx been tailing all week
6-5, + 7.5*
4* Notre Dame + 3.5
on it
You need winners today.
Two gut wretching losses.
Up 14-0 with +3.5 pts, Fla State cannot run, has NO "O", and for some unknown reason, ND stops blitzing. WTF? Earlier, supposed # 2 WR in the NFL draft, Floyd drops easy TD pass. Later, Floyd catches one then gets speared by helmet and is out for the game. THE KEY PLAY was when, up one pt, the Fla State WR juggles a long pass out of bounds, but they gave him the catch. 50 yds, they kick a FG. That was the game. Trying to come back without WR Floyd, ND throws terrible routes, too long, did not go to the TE enough. We knew the ND QB's were below average, but did't think Floyd would tank and didn't think ND would stop harrassing Fla St QB... sure, he would have hit a long one or two, but he would have thrown some INT's trying to come from behind. 1/2 pt loss ATS.
Shit.
Washington up 18 and I am getting 10. So up 28 ATS. Of course, Baylor will come back, but Washington made it too easy, played into their hands. Possess the ball, short FD passes and pepper in runs. No. Still, Washington down JUST 4 pts LATE, marching in Baylor territory, their best WR out, and cannot get that one LAST first down. That would hae done it. Turn it over on downs. Then they lay back in spread coverage while Baylor is running out the clock with 2+ mins to go... and let the RB run straight up the middle for 50+ yd TD, Baylor goes up 11. Then with 2+ mins to go, the OL takes the short kickoff and thinks he is Barry Sanders and fumbles. Washington still could have gone in and covered. 3 chances to put it away late, they blow all three. 1 pt loss ATS. Shit.
6-7, - 0.2*.
Both games I was relaxed with a big lead, thought I would be up 14+*. Yeah.
BUT literally starting over, will gut it out, long way to go.
Last edited by Serbone; 12-30-11 at 11:12 AM.
3* BYU + 2.5
4* Iowa State -1
Sarkasian lost the game/blew the cover when he changed his offensive game plan and decided to run the ball to eat up the clock and score. In my opinion, had he kept playing fast-break football, the Huskies would have definitely covered and possibly won the game.
Wid ya on the first... agin ya on the second.
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