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South Florida vs. Syracuse Write-Up
A heartbreaking loss last night. Georgia Tech took the lead, had momentum to put the game away and a stupid personal foul and terrible coaching call on 4th down in their own territory turned out to be a game changer...and snapped my 7 game winning streak.
I guess you can't really handicap stupid...anyways back at it tonight.
For tonights match-up you have Big East conference rivals the South Florida Bulls ( 4-4 0-4 Big East ) travelling to the Carrier Dome to face the Syracuse Orange (5-4 1-4 Big East).
The Bulls opened up their season going 4-0 in non-coference play and looked to be on their way to possibly contending for the Big East title. Once conference play began however, this Bulls team just appeared to fall apart...they have dropped the last 4 conference games both SU and ATS. In these games the Bulls were favored by an average of 3.5 points.
Syracuse hasn't done much better. They opened the season 3-0 but have since dropped the last 4 of 5 both SU and ATS...with their lone win and cover coming Oct 21st when they defeated the then nationally ranked WVU team at home in a complete route.
South Florida's QB is B.J. Daniels, a duel threat QB who has thrown for over 2000 yards and 12 touchdowns with 5 INTS, and has rushed for 440 yards and four TDs. Four of his five interceptions though have come over the last 3 games.
Syracuse is led by QB Ryan Nassib who has 18 touchdown passes and 6 INTs. Nassib is completing 65% of his passes to date. Nassib's style is not always smooth, making poor decisions at times but has shown that he has an arm and can complete passes down the field.
It's no secret that both teams are struggling, but both teams have showed flashes of brilliance this season. This game is a must win for both teams. This is their "Big East championship game". With a win, Syracuse becomes bowl eligible, and would love to play in the Pinnacle Bowl in front of their home crowd for the second year in a row. Syracuse has games against Pittsburgh and Cinncinati on deck and I think this may be their last shot to become eligible. USF will need to win this game in order to stay in the hunt for bowl eligibility and with games against Miami, Louisville and WVU left...USF's chances are slowly dwindling so a win on the road is a must tonight.
Syracuse TE Nick Provo has been a breakout star, him and Nassib shredded the WVU defense all night long, marching up and down the field with ease back on Oct 21. However, in the last 2 games Syracuse's offense has struggled, putting up only 10 and 21 points respectively ( both games were on the road). Their senior running back Antoine Baily has amassed just 120 yrds on the ground over the last 2 games after 4 straight 100+ yard performances. On defense though safety Phillip Thomas is tied for second in the nation with 6 INTs this year. And Chandler Jones, if healthy can and will cause problems for any QB on the field.
South Florida has a habit of beating themselves. They blew a 14pt 4th quarter lead last week at Rutgers...they have been outscored 70-42 in the 4th quarter. RB Darell Scott managed to rush for over 100 yrds for the first time in 5 games but has been hampered by injuries this week and is questionable for tonights game. USF's defense is fast and can close on the ball quickly. Linebacker DeDe Lattimore has 40 tackles and 3.5 sacks in the last four games. USF leads the nation in tackles for losses per game at 9 and is second in sacks at 3.5 per game.
It's hard to tell what is going to happen in this game. With both teams struggling it appears to be a toss-up, does the Syracuse team that embarrassed WVU at home show up? Or does USF finally get back on track and play like they did in the beginning of the year?
Syracuse is 4-1 at home this year with the lone loss coming to Rutgers in a game that many say Syracuse should have won. They lost the contest 19-16.
USF doesn't travel well and their record backs that up, having gone 1-3 on the road this season.
In a game that is important for both teams, and probably Syracuse's last shot to become bowl eligible I think they find a way to pull out this game. I don't see how USF should be laying points in any game after how they have played in the last 4.
Getting 4 points with a team that plays extremely well at home against a team that is terrible on the road seems like the play with the most value. I wouldn't trust USF winning the game straight up nevermind covering any kind of point spread.
I like Syracuse to not only cover the spread, but win this game outright...
To be on the safe side I'd take Syracuse +3.5 ( buy the hook ) with a small wager on the ML
Syracuse- 27
USF -24
For all you trend junkie's out there:
* Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Bulls are 0-6 ATS in their last six conference games.
* Orange are 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games.
Something worth noting: the 5-1 ATS stat favoring the Bulls, that 1 loss came last year when Syracuse beat USF in South Florida.
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Originally Posted by thfootball
