[TheProdigy8199]

We're back to weeknight football in the MAC tonight as Northern Illinois ( 6-3 ) travels to Bowling Green ( 4-5 ). If you followed my write ups last week, you saw winners on Ohio, Northern Illinois, Tulsa and USC... hopefully we can add to the streak starting today...

As everyone knows, anything can happen in the MAC...Studying the numbers on this one will not do you any favors. Forget that NI hasn't won in Bowling Green since 1986...forget that BG is getting their stud RB back tonight. All those stats will do is distract you.

While BG may be having a descent year this year, they are about to run into a buzzsaw. Northern Illinois has been on a tear as of late, having won 5 of the last 6 with 2 of those victories being on the road. Meanwhile BG is on a losing skid, losing 4 of the last 5.

Anyone who watched the Toledo game last week knows what this NI offense is all about. They know how to put points on the board, and can do so in a hurry. NI is averaging about 40 points per game. Chandler Harnish is a senior quarterback who is just as capable on the ground as he is through the air. In order for Miami to have success they are going to have to contain Harnish, which I don't see them doing. The NI defense however has been absolutely terrible. But as bad as they are thats not going to matter in this game, as it is going to take BG about 35 points in this game in order to even have a chance at covering. They have only cracked the 30 mark twice this season...once against Miami OH and the other was against Morgan St in the beginning of the season.

Forget the stats, forget the "what ifs" tonight NI is just going to have too much firepower for BG to handle, while they may keep it close for a while, I see NI turning it on and BG not being able to keep up. This will not be another shootout like the Toledo game.

With the line steadily dropping to about 5.5 in most places I will gladly take NI - whatever amount of points they want to offer.

NI-42
BG-24

[YouHave2outs]

nice write up. best of luck tonight.

[nj1035]

I appreciate the write up but I'm confused. You say forget the stats and then give us stats favoring NI. Should we forget the stats or not? I mean I don't know what else there is to base an opinion on.

[leetreaper]

BG wins outright

[YouHave2outs]

BG wins outright

i'm on this as well

[og4667]

I have been following NIU for several years now and feel like I have a good handle on this team. Bad spot for them...I would not be confident in laying 5 pts on the road against a desperate BG team. Last week was a big game for NIU and they came through but this is a much different spot..yes they will put up points but their defense is horrible. BG will be able to do whatever they want on offense.

[SmackdownV]

I lean over.........Good write up!

[TheProdigy8199]

I appreciate the write up but I'm confused. You say forget the stats and then give us stats favoring NI. Should we forget the stats or not? I mean I don't know what else there is to base an opinion on.

Not all stats favor NIU...

NIU hasn't won in BG since 1986...BG running back has rushed for 100 yrds 4 times this year...BG is 3-0 as an underdog or 3.5-10 pts.. while NIU is 1-2 as a favorite of the same spread. BG 3-1 ATS in home games, NIU 1-3 ATS on the road... If you look deeper, all stats point in the favor of BG, which is why the line has been pounded down. I'm not sold that BG is the better team.

[BernardMadoff]

N. Illinois defense is terrible also.

[BernardMadoff]

Not all stats favor NIU...

NIU hasn't won in BG since 1986...BG running back has rushed for 100 yrds 4 times this year...BG is 3-0 as an underdog or 3.5-10 pts.. while NIU is 1-2 as a favorite of the same spread. BG 3-1 ATS in home games, NIU 1-3 ATS on the road... If you look deeper, all stats point in the favor of BG, which is why the line has been pounded down. I'm not sold that BG is the better team.

Then why do you think NIU will win by 20 on the road, seems youre going solely on stats. Its not easy to win on the road as you see in that "since 1986" stat, and winning on the road by more than 3 is definitely not easy.

[bb_skoots]

Prodigy look at your post . You keep talking about Miami of Ohio.

[ridims]

the huskies allowed 30 points to be scored on them by cal poly & buffalo LOLOL

i wouldn't be comfortable with either team here but to say the huskies are going to have it easy on the road (over two td win) is just not smart. especially in this conf.

[Seaton420]

N.ill is the play

[an old man]

you can say a team is horrible and cant keep up and then throw all the stats ya want after saying forget the stats ha ha. im gonna teach you something here today son.

bowling green isnt how you make them ouut to be and tonight they are in a great spot. theyre going to rally around anthon samuel and the defense cant wait to shut people like you up and show they can compete with this overrated niu offense.

fact of the matter is this line is bait for people who watched the toledo game and i tell u what looks like they reeled u in

[YouHave2outs]

fact of the matter is this line is bait for people who watched the toledo game and i tell u what looks like they reeled u in

[Trmeyer]

BG covers. Maybe wins

[TheProdigy8199]

Prodigy look at your post . You keep talking about Miami of Ohio.

Thanks, I had Miami OH on the brain...made the changes

[TheProdigy8199]

you can say a team is horrible and cant keep up and then throw all the stats ya want after saying forget the stats ha ha. im gonna teach you something here today son.

bowling green isnt how you make them ouut to be and tonight they are in a great spot. theyre going to rally around anthon samuel and the defense cant wait to shut people like you up and show they can compete with this overrated niu offense.

fact of the matter is this line is bait for people who watched the toledo game and i tell u what looks like they reeled u in

I expected a lot of people to have an opinion and jump all over Bowling Green tonight...the line is moving in Bowling Greens favor just like it did for Temple, UCF, Colorado, Toledo... No doubt Bowling Green will put some points on the board, and yes NIU's defense is horrible thats not debatable... The line is bait for people to take Bowling Green tonight because of their defense and because of the Toledo game, not the other way around...

[bb_skoots]

Home team M/L has value at +178. Making a small play there.


edit: I should have waited. Its at +200

[nj1035]

I expected a lot of people to have an opinion and jump all over Bowling Green tonight...the line is moving in Bowling Greens favor just like it did for Temple, UCF, Colorado, Toledo... No doubt Bowling Green will put some points on the board, and yes NIU's defense is horrible thats not debatable... The line is bait for people to take Bowling Green tonight because of their defense and because of the Toledo game, not the other way around...

Actually the line moves were against Temple and Toledo....

[HotRush]

I appreciate the write up but I'm confused. You say forget the stats and then give us stats favoring NI. Should we forget the stats or not? I mean I don't know what else there is to base an opinion on.

I think what he is saying is that looking at recently how good NIU is playing compared to how bad Bowling green has been as of late that stats do not matter...NIU is clearly playing better football

I agree with Prodigy on this and Im rollin with NIU on this one

Good luck

[og4667]

I expected a lot of people to have an opinion and jump all over Bowling Green tonight...the line is moving in Bowling Greens favor just like it did for Temple, UCF, Colorado, Toledo... No doubt Bowling Green will put some points on the board, and yes NIU's defense is horrible thats not debatable... The line is bait for people to take Bowling Green tonight because of their defense and because of the Toledo game, not the other way around...

80% of bets on this game are on NIU.

I have to disagree, if anything the line is bait for people to take NIU as a small road favorite seeing how they won as a DD road dog and how bad BG's recent performance vs Kent st was...

[Duke Fan]

Is the Over not the obvious play? Let them both score all night long!

[BiGTonyHAHA]

you might have to go with bowling green tonight... dont forget 3 touchdowns where scored by kickoff returns by northern Illnois last week. I mean there offense is good but I cant expect the same amount of kick return for tds again? can you?

[JasonGators]

How is nobody jumping on BG TT under 30?!?!

[Xstream]

Things to consider; BGs high turnovers pg, kicking gamehas been horrible (not fun backing a team constantly kicking it out of bounds with their third string kicker), special teams in general (dropped punts), and major red zone issues. This information straight from the BG head coaches' live interview this week. Granted, he states that he is trying to tackle all of these issues before game day.

The secondary features one of the youngest in the country. The Falcons, who play a 4-2-5 defense, regularly feature two sophomores and three freshmen. NIU features one of the best offenses as we all know but their defense is weak. It will be a points race, who wins?. Worth Noting: rain and bad weather possible by second half.

The link is here and the interview and other stats as well. http://www.bgsufalcons.com/news/2011...103114832.aspx

Food for thought, BOL!

[CollegeOverUnder]

How is nobody jumping on BG TT under 30?!?!

lol I might be on that now that you said that

[Poundabooty]

Great write up!!! You were on fire last week and all your write ups make sense!! Let's get this!!

[JasonGators]

CollegeOver, check out my thread, where I'll be posting my picks. I have a good feeling about this week, so why not check me out and see how I do.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/college-fo...ry-me-out.html

[ebelisle22]

BG will not score more than 20 points even against bad d

[RumHam]

Shooting for No Illy

[thelegend67]

+ 1

[DerekMadden]

[/b]


80% of bets on this game are on NIU.

I have to disagree, if anything the line is bait for people to take NIU as a small road favorite seeing how they won as a DD road dog and how bad BG's recent performance vs Kent st was...

Not everything is a trap...

I can give you 4 of the 5 weeknight games last week where %80+ of the public were on a team and they won..



What prodigy is saying is BG simply doesn't have the firepower to keep up with No Ill

I have to agree..


but I'm staying off because it is a weeknight game and anything can happen, there are tons of other games down the line with better value

[N.O.S.]

I expected a lot of people to have an opinion and jump all over Bowling Green tonight...the line is moving in Bowling Greens favor just like it did for Temple, UCF, Colorado, Toledo... No doubt Bowling Green will put some points on the board, and yes NIU's defense is horrible thats not debatable... The line is bait for people to take Bowling Green tonight because of their defense and because of the Toledo game, not the other way around...

[TheProdigy8199]

Congrats to anyone that followed last night. Like I had said... forget the stats, angles, assumptions about the NI defense etc for this game...the better team won in a blowout, it wasn't even close...