[TheProdigy8199]

After winning the Conf-USA title last year and capping it off with a Liberty Bowl win over Georgia, this years UCF football team is a far cry from where they were a year ago. This UCF team pretty much stinks. Their defense is currently ranked #3 in overall defense and 5th in points allowed, but I wouldn't let those stats fool you, as UCF hasn't really played anybody all year, nevermind someone with any kind of offensive power. Their biggest win this year was against a very pedestrian Boston College team in the beginning of the season... that right there should tell you something. SMU lit UCF up for 38 pts...UAB for 26 and even a struggling BYU team with QB issues still managed to put up 24 pts against this so-called stellar defense.

On the other side we have a Tulsa team looking for their 5th straight win in a row with their 3 losses coming at the hands of powerhouses Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Boise State. The Tulsa defense's stats say that they are giving up close to 30 pts/game, however that number is skewed due to the fact that they have played the three teams mentioned above. Over their last 4 games, they have given up just under 20 ppg. while their offense has been explosive scoring close to 38 pts in the last 4 contests and was able to put up 33 and 21 against OSU and Boise.

UCF is currently trying to find it's offensive rhythm...they are historically a run oriented offense that likes to wear teams down on the ground, recently though it seems like their QB has been trying to be a one man show, trying to do too much in the pocket and making bad decisions which ultimately cause turnovers, taking points off the board.

Looking at all factors when it comes to offense, defense and stength of schedule and considering UCF lost to both UAB and SMU, two teams in which Tulsa handled with relative ease, the correct play tonight would be Tulsa ML. Good luck.

[paranoyd androyd]

solid write-up gl

[YouHave2outs]

appreciate the write up. well done g

[paranoyd androyd]

ucf just moved to -2, tulsa ML now +112

[BernardMadoff]

You failed to mention those games were on the road for UCF. Didnt you learn last night that many times you can throw the stats out the window, its deeper than that alot of the time.

[GETMONEY407]

Some people will never learn about home field advantage

[House]

There is no home field advantage tonight my friend ....

[Chavs]

Thanks for the info

[TheProdigy8199]

You failed to mention those games were on the road for UCF. Didnt you learn last night that many times you can throw the stats out the window, its deeper than that alot of the time.

I actually didn't learn anything last night, I was on the right side, you can check my write up if you like

[TheProdigy8199]

Some people will never learn about home field advantage

You don't think the linesmakers already factored in home field advantage...they kept this line close so that people will jump all over UCF....

[BernardMadoff]

You don't think the linesmakers already factored in home field advantage...they kept this line close so that people will jump all over UCF....

Going by your thought pattern, how could you not have been on Temple, just asking.

[TheProdigy8199]

Going by your thought pattern, how could you not have been on Temple, just asking.

Thats a fair question, and yes all stats last night did point to Temple, however I follow just about every team in college, I've seen Ohio play and I've seen Temple play throughout the year...stats only tell half of the story, the same thought process can't be used with every game...if it was then everyone would be winning alot more than they do.

Ohio matches up well with Temple stylistically, they always have...while Temple may have been the better team on paper, I didn't feel that Temple was the better team on the field. Everyone was banking on Peirce having a monster game in front of the scouts cause thats what Temple does, they run the ball. I saw the game as Ohio's key to victory was stopping the run and forcing the QB to beat them...which they did, and Temple just fell alittle short.

There are no such thing as formulas, or crazy mathematical predictions...those don't take into account the the human element of the game.

In the game tonight, I feel it's going to be a potent Tulsa offense against an aneimic UCF offense...UCF likes to run the ball and chew up clock...they wear down defenses by doing this and usually take a lead in the second half...but if Tulsa gets into a lead situation thats going to force UCF to rely on the play of their shaky and unpredictible QB... Tulsa also has the experience of playing against the former #1, #4 and #5 ranked teams in the country and was still able to hang a good amount of points on them. If this game turns into a battle of offenses, I will take Tulsa all night long.

I'm not claiming to be a professional capper, or that I know more than the next guy, I don't play every game on the board or pick a team everyday....I love football and love putting in the research to try and exploit the soft lines and give myself the best chance to win....now I could be completely wrong here, which is possible but this is just my opinion...tail or fade I don't care, I'm just playing the side feel is right and trying to give others another way to look at the game.

[M.W.]

Thanks. Good stuff.

[M.W.]

And good luck.

[TheProdigy8199]

Well it didn't quite happen exactly as I thought. Some terrible calls made by the referees last night, and it turn out Tulsa's offensive running game ( who would have thought ) and defense on 4th down deep in the redzone were the difference makers. Nonetheless a win is a win...