I rode Northern Illinois on their incredible run ATS last year, so natually I was interested to see what they'd do this season with Chandler Harnish back at QB. I've seen these teams play a combined nine times this year, and the only way the NIU defense can somewhat contain Toledo is if the Rockets have some fluke red zone turnovers. Look at the NIU defensive numbers on the road: 534 yards to Kansas, 563 yards to Central Michigan, and 572 yards to Buffalo. Toledo is far and away the best offense they've faced, and will tear them up on the ground and through the air.

For me, in order of strength, my plays are Toledo TT over 39, over 69, and Toledo -9.5. Don't usually like big public plays but Vegas is off tonight.