Originally Posted by
Love The Action
The problem with this hypothesis, and also why this is a losing proposition over the long term (think thousands of plays) is that you are betting into bad numbers. By the time you are betting, the line has already moved 2 points which invariably knocks you off a key number. For example, there is a HUGE difference between betting the over at 51 (i.e. the number the sharps get) and betting that same over at 53 or 54. What you will find over a large sample, is that the sharps who bet 51 cash and the line chasers who bet 53 or 54 end up pushing or losing. Now, I'm not saying your theory does not have merit...it surely does and there are many of us who use this concept on a case by case basis. However, were you to blindly employ this concept long term, you would not hit at the magic 52.5% needed to profit long term. I suggest you set your own lines and use this concept in conjunction therewith. Use it when you believe there to be value even after the sharp move. Good idea though and good luck on your plays this week.