[sandman0713]

i'm sure someone will call me dumb for doing this, but i will anyways...lol. just been watching the totals that move big...more than 2 points...early in the week before everyone starts betting. the big movers hit at 67% last week if you were to follow the line movement, and 67% to 70%+ over the last month. this may not be 100% accurate as i just really tracked it last week with the movers of 1.5 or more being 4-2-1 and the big movers of 2.5 or more being 2-0 and both sailed over. i just used the sbrodds to track back a few weeks, but the results look good. not saying anyone should bet based on this, but worth tracking in my opinion. i mean if something is hitting at a higher % than i am, i'm gonna look at it...lol. just going by the 2.5 rule and using the sbrodds, we would watch

uab and marshall to go over 52
n'western and indiana to go sailing over 60.5
mizzou and a+m to go over 63.5
va tech and duke over 53.5
tulane and e carolina to go way under 55
colorado state and unlv to go under 48
auburn and ole miss to go over 51
so miss and utep over 57.5

a lot of people don't bet totals, and most don't bet at all until late in the week...so a total moving 2.5 to 3 points on a crap game before the weekend is for sure worth looking at and tracking...tho some of these are not crap games. i am only on one of these...tho not because of this...but i did look at a couple of the others when i was looking for plays and liked them. maybe some who are better than me with systems and stat's can shed ideas on how better to track these, and what exactly to track...and some in here might already be tracking it...lol. just saying that if you look at the early week big movers on weekend totals...the win % following the movement is nice. opinions and thoughts?

BTW IF SOME DUMBASS COMES IN HERE AND BETS THESE AND LOSES HIS 401K THEN IT HIS OWN FAULT FOR BEING A DUMBASS AND NOT UNDERSTANDING THIS IS JUST SOMETHING I THINK MIGHT BE WORTH WATCHING...lol.

[flocko76]

so 8 team teaser?

[sandman0713]

so 8 team teaser?

go for it...lol. i actually like all of them as i look over them. not saying they all hit, but someone liked them enough early in the week to move these totals 2.5 to 5 points.

[flocko76]

according to the live odds link at the top of the page, uab marshall opened at 59 and is down to 52. you say bet the over?

[Elysee26]

Sandman, thanks for the work. If someone bets their 401K on ANYTHING they are beyond help IMHO.

Can you give me one reason for not taking Ok St. this weekend against Baylor. For some reason I have liked that game all week. Thanks.

[sandman0713]

according to the live odds link at the top of the page, uab marshall opened at 59 and is down to 52. you say bet the over?

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/college-foot...ores/20111029/

that is the only page i have looked at for any of them this week, and to track back. maybe not right as i haven't looked any further.

[sandman0713]

Sandman, thanks for the work. If someone bets their 401K on ANYTHING they are beyond help IMHO.

Can you give me one reason for not taking Ok St. this weekend against Baylor. For some reason I have liked that game all week. Thanks.

not saying they won't cover, but 2 reasons i am not betting it...

1. just came off the road for 2 huge games against texas and mizzou. now we are at home in a game everyone says we win easily. just seems like even the fans are like letting out a big breath and looking to relax in an easy win saturday. also happens to be wrapped in a mizzou\kstate sandwich.

2. baylor can score on anyone, and on us for sure. to keep the backdoor out of the question our d would have to play incredible. ostate notorious for blowing big halftime leads and making games closer than they really are.

that said...i like the over.

[Elysee26]

Thanks Sandman. Always good to check in with someone a little closer to the situation. May have to follow you with the over.

Regarding your picks I grew up in Alabama and I like your Auburn / Ole Miss going over 51.5. Nutt on the hot seat in Oxford with nothing to lose and manages late season miracles better than anyone (his Arkansas team beat LSU in Baton Rouge the last time they won the NC) and night games in Auburn always get strange. All fans will be drunk and the atmosphere will be double crazy because Bama has the weekend off and the rednecks that hate Auburn will show up just for the party! I see both teams letting it all hang out!

Good luck with your wagers....

[BiffTFinancial]

great stuff, sandman. i love totals and you're certainly onto something. i added Missou/A&M over earlier this afternoon, and this was a big part of the reason (no resistance to the total rising means something). i'm also on Baylor/Okie State, Clemson/GT, Stanford/USC overs this weekend. BOL to you.

[sandman0713]

great stuff, sandman. i love totals and you're certainly onto something. i added Missou/A&M over earlier this afternoon, and this was a big part of the reason (no resistance to the total rising means something). i'm also on Baylor/Okie State, Clemson/GT, Stanford/USC overs this weekend. BOL to you.

not saying the easy overs like last night hit every time...but don't you think the books will have to adjust to the changes in ncaa football? honestly...if we don't start seeing some totals in the mid 80s to open soon i will be shocked. btw...these are not my plays...but just something i am following.

[Madison]

great stuff, sandman. i love totals and you're certainly onto something. i added Missou/A&M over earlier this afternoon, and this was a big part of the reason (no resistance to the total rising means something). i'm also on Baylor/Okie State, Clemson/GT, Stanford/USC overs this weekend. BOL to you.

Hey Biff,

Take a peak at TT Iowa ST. I like totals also and posted earlier about why most books won't take an all totals teaser. Look into it. My simulations have been very positive. Just gotta find someone who'll take an all total teaser.

[Love The Action]

The problem with this hypothesis, and also why this is a losing proposition over the long term (think thousands of plays) is that you are betting into bad numbers. By the time you are betting, the line has already moved 2 points which invariably knocks you off a key number. For example, there is a HUGE difference between betting the over at 51 (i.e. the number the sharps get) and betting that same over at 53 or 54. What you will find over a large sample, is that the sharps who bet 51 cash and the line chasers who bet 53 or 54 end up pushing or losing. Now, I'm not saying your theory does not have merit...it surely does and there are many of us who use this concept on a case by case basis. However, were you to blindly employ this concept long term, you would not hit at the magic 52.5% needed to profit long term.

I suggest you set your own lines and use this concept in conjunction therewith. Use it when you believe there to be value even after the sharp move.

Good idea though and good luck on your plays this week.

[BiffTFinancial]

not saying the easy overs like last night hit every time...but don't you think the books will have to adjust to the changes in ncaa football? honestly...if we don't start seeing some totals in the mid 80s to open soon i will be shocked. btw...these are not my plays...but just something i am following.

especially in the Big 12. one thing that i look at is pace, similar to college hoops. i don't think that lines are adjusted properly for number of plays because most people don't adjust for it at all (i think most people look at previous scores). when you get two teams with extreme pace together, high or low, it can really skew things.

[BiffTFinancial]

Hey Biff, Take a peak at TT Iowa ST. I like totals also and posted earlier about why most books won't take an all totals teaser. Look into it. My simulations have been very positive. Just gotta find someone who'll take an all total teaser.

i have Iowa State with 34 in that game, so yeah, over 26 looks good. might have to think about that....

[BiffTFinancial]

The problem with this hypothesis, and also why this is a losing proposition over the long term (think thousands of plays) is that you are betting into bad numbers. By the time you are betting, the line has already moved 2 points which invariably knocks you off a key number. For example, there is a HUGE difference between betting the over at 51 (i.e. the number the sharps get) and betting that same over at 53 or 54. What you will find over a large sample, is that the sharps who bet 51 cash and the line chasers who bet 53 or 54 end up pushing or losing. Now, I'm not saying your theory does not have merit...it surely does and there are many of us who use this concept on a case by case basis. However, were you to blindly employ this concept long term, you would not hit at the magic 52.5% needed to profit long term. I suggest you set your own lines and use this concept in conjunction therewith. Use it when you believe there to be value even after the sharp move. Good idea though and good luck on your plays this week.

you're right, LTA, this is the problem if you were to tail plays that move 2-3 points in volume. it's more that, if you're on it at a better number, you can feel better about a play that then moves.

[playerzinc]

uab opened atn 48.5

[sandman0713]

5-3...not as good as it has been. gonna keep watching it tho. sorry about your teaser flocko...lol.