MACHINE CHOICE FOOTBALL: 23-11 (68%)
Well, Syracuse should actually be 2-4, since they should have lost the Wake Forest game (Syracuse needed OT after Wake QB destroyed them all game before getting injured). And of course they beat Toledo on the classic extra point mis-call. So ask yourself: what would this line be if Syracuse had lost those two games?
Tonight's game: both teams off the bye, WVU in a revenge spot and getting more comfortable by the week with the new coaching change. Bill Stewart's departure has radically made WVU a better team, and they will victimize Syracuse's horrendous pass defense. Despite having a bad game agaist SU last year, overall Geno Smith is not prone to the turnover (40 TDs, only 10 picks the last 2 years!). That's not good for 'Cuse because turnovers are the only way this game stays close. On offense, Syracuse is very vanilla and presents nothing WVU hasn't seen already on better teams (LSU, Maryland, UCONN). WVU has the 10-ranked pass defense in the nation...again, not good for 'Cuse because they are going to have to throw the ball to keep up with Geno Smith and the evil wizard Holgorsen's aerial assault.
Syracuse won last year on the strength of a fantastic defense. That team is history. This game is a mismatch and I damn near hung the combo lock on this one (4-0 on those plays this year). Syracuse is only 4-6 ATS in their Dome this year and last, while WVU is 4-2 ATS on the road in the same span.
Syracuse is about to get handled, don't be on the wrong side.
Score model:
West Virginia 39
Syracuse 21
WEST VIRGINIA -14