Originally Posted by
LSUtiger
Wisconsin -8 @ Michigan State
Initially, when this line came out I immediately went to place my largest bet of the year. Luckily, I stopped myself before I did. The more I compare and think about these two teams, the less I like Wisconsin. Wisconsin only had one blemish on their schedule last year when regular season concluded. You can see where I'm getting at...Wisconsin was undefeated going into that game, and it was also in Madison. MSU handily beat them by 10 points despite 3 turnovers, compared to Wisconsin's 0. Now, Wisconsin is definitely better this year and with their talent and balanced attack they should be able to win this game. But you can count on MSU to show up for this game and do everything they can to take Wisconsin down. This a prime time conference game in MSU's back yard.
Now for the numbers. Wisconsin has played 5 FBS schools so far, which include powerhouses UNLV, Oregon State, Northern Illinois, Indiana, as well as a mysterious Nebraska team. These five teams give up an average of 41.5, 31.8, 32.9, 31.7, 27.2 points respectively. That is an average of 33 pts allowed per game. Now, Wisconsin has averaged 48.4 points against these five teams. They may appear as an offensive steam engine, but I think every single one of the current top 10 teams would have put up similar numbers if they played those teams.
Take 48.4/33 and you get 1.46...1.46 x MSU's average allowed will give you the number of points Wisconsin "should" score. Michigan State is allowing just 11.7 points/game thus far, which is 17 less points than any other team Wisconsin has faced this season. Based on this season, 11.7 (MSU average allowed) x 1.46 (Wisconsin's offensive multiple) you end up with a Wisconsin point projection of 17. Now, Wisconsin's defense is allowing an average of 9.64 to FBS opponents so far. Based on this, 9.64 x 1.17 (MSU's off. multiple) you end up with 12. Based on these projections, Saturday's game will be a tight, low scoring defensive battle. In no way do I think it will end up 17-12, I just think it will be tighter than most people think. Now I'll compare last year's projections and the actual score using the same method.
2010:
Wisconsin Score Projection: 22.3 (MSU avg. pt/s allowed) x 1.53 (Wisc. offense multiple) = 34
Michigan St. Score Project.: 22 (Wisc avg pt/s allowed) x 1.21 (MSU offense multiple) = 26.6
Actual Score MSU 34 Wisc 24-As you can see, the total was only off by 2.5 pts, and MSU dominated Wisconsin only allowing 24 points, 10 of which were scored off turnovers.
Bottom Line
I believe the following factors will have the most impact and decide the game. If MSU wins the turnover battle or even keeps it even, Wisconsin will not score many points. Wisconsin has naturally gotten used to playing against horrible defenses, and will most likely need some time adjust. On the other side, MSU thrives off their defense and has shown in the past they know how to slow down Wisconsin's offense. Wisconsin is averaging 280 passing and 243 rushing per game (523), while MSU is allowing 109/64 (173). My Projection: Wisconsin wins 23-20
Michigan State +8, Under 48 Good Luck Everyone!