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Ball State @ Ohio - Fawkes Write Up
Season Record 8-3-0 +32.6u
HEY SBR Forums! For the first time this NCAAF season I'm all in. Too much value and too many lines begging to get nailed! Before we dig in I was just going to answer a couple PMs I received from other posters. My record is 8-3 on picks I post within my own write ups, but it was pointed out I only have 2 wrong (those being the Cinci/Miami-Ohio Over and Arkansas State TT Over), but there was another bet I posted with:
I certainly would have counted it and the units as a win if it had come through so it is only fair it also be a posted lost. Thank you to those of you watching out for me and double-checking me, but I do plan to continue showing it as a loss. Alright, with that business taken care of, lets turn research into cash!Originally Posted by guy Fawkes
Ball State @ Ohio
Ball State is coming off of 2 hard losses this week (3-3 overall) against Oklahoma and Temple where Ball State has scored a total of 6 points combined. Ball State is putting up an average of 19.3 points per game, but when Ball State has put up over 7 points they have won the game. They are extremely susceptible to a team with rushing defense. Ball State has not won a game this season without putting up a minimum of 160 yards of rushing. The Cardinals are missing 2 of their returning (and arguably best) running backs in David Brown (RB jr) and Cory Sykes (RB sr) whom averaged over 5.5 yards per carry last season. Ball State is also missing 2 starting cornerbacks in Quintin Cooper (CB so) and Odis Prunty (CB so).
Statistics In the last two games, Keith Wenning (QB so) has thrown 5 interceptions on 65 attempts, completed 47.7% passes and boasts a 62.3 passer-rating, with his longest pass being 20 yards without any TDs. On the season Wenning has been sacked 7 times in 6 games and thrown 7 TDs. Wenning is throwing at a 64.6% completion rate with a 119.1 passer-rating on the overall for the season. Jahwan Edwards (RB fr) has 88 attempts on the year for 420 yards averaging 4.8 yards, but has a long of 23 yards. Despite this, Edwards has 6 rushing TDs. In the last 2 weeks, Edwards is a different story having 32 attempts for 119 yards and averaging 2.7 yards per carry. Steven Schott (K sr) has made 6 of 8 attempts this year, but has a long of 38 yards. Ball State is getting 4.6 yards per play and giving up 6.5 yards per play, gaining only 0.27 points per play and allowing a massive 0.47 points per play to opponents and the defense is allowing 47.7% of 3rd down conversions and a 62.9% completion rate. Ball State is giving up an average of 474.3 yards per game and on the receiving end of an average of 0.8 turnovers, 10th worst in the nation on both accounts.
Ohio is a home team beast this year scoring an average of 30.3 points per game and giving up a measly 6.7 points per game while in Peden Stadium. The Bobcats have lost two games to Rutgers and Buffalo by a combined 13 points. Ohio is 3-0 against Ball State since 1999 and 2-1 ATS. This is also Ohio's homecoming game and Ohio will be looking to impress.
Statistics Tyler Tettleton (QB so) is throwing for 63.3% completions this season for 1395 yards (232.5 per game) and boasts a 142.9 passer-rating on the season while throwing for 13 TDs and only 2 interceptions. Tettleton has legs though, with 205 rushing yards on the season and 4 rushing TDs. Ohio uses a rotating back system with Ryan Boykin (RB so) and Donte Harden (RB sr) who are averaging 4.1 yards per carry on 78 attempts and 6.0 yards per carry on 36 attempts respectively. Ohio is averaging 190 yards on the ground per game and 449.6 yards per game, 26th overall in the NCAA. Matt Weller (K jr) has a boot, making 12/14 attempted field goals with a long of 46 yards. Weller is averaging a 42 yard long in every game with at least 1 attempts. Ohio has made 47.4% of its 3rd down conversions this year averaging 5.9 yards per play and 0.44 points per play. The Bobcat defense is allowing a completion percentage of 51.7% on the season and only allowing 37.2% of opponents 3rd down conversions. Ohio is causing an average of 2.6 turnovers per game, tied for 12th best in the nation alongside LSU.
Personal Notes
Ohio needs to put two hands on the ball when running, fumbles killed their chances against Rutgers and Buffalo. I don't think Ball State has the athleticism to cause these in the same way. If Ohio ends up on the right side of the turnover margin (and the certainly should), they have a chance to run away with this one early.
Ball State is still suffering a hangover from Oklahoma and Temple is proof of that. Combining for 6 points in 2 weeks will have an affect on the mindset of the Cardinal offense in this one.
Ohio will be looking to rattle Wenning early and will be very aggressive in the secondary looking for interceptions.
Given that this is Ohio's homecoming I look for the starters to remain in despite a lead and to continue to drive up the score into the fourth quarter.
Field goals should be the name of the game for the spread in this one and with Ohio's Weller that should certainly fly in favor of the Bobcats
My Picks
Ohio -14 @ 3u
Will likely be taking the TT over as it comes out later this week
Thank you for reading and as always please feel free to post anything and everything. I read all comments and continue to check picks against any new data presented here. This is a write-up and contains some of the information I use, but not all for the sake of time. I hope this information is useful, despite which way the information is used. Again, Thank you for reading!
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