[guy Fawkes]

Season Record 5-2-0 +26.1u

Hey SBR Forums! I appreciate the praise and following I've gotten in my other write up this week for Arizona St. @ Utah, certainly my pick of the week. This is a game that doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. Capping the game I would put it at Arkansas State -9 to 10.5. I think this is a game that is sliding under the radar and a great chance to pick up some side value in order to go get the big games. Between both teams there has been 1 game that was within 18 points with Arkansas State's most recent victory over Western Kentucky 26-22. So here we go, let's check 'em out!

Arkansas State @ UL-Monroe

Arkansas State is 3-2 losing to Virginia Tech and Illinois, both respectable teams this year. Arkansas State is a contender this year for the Sun Belt Championship, behind a steady offense and a shut-down defense. Arkansas seems to be having an identity crisis early in the year, dominating the run game in some games and dominating the passing the next, not doing both at any point. Arkansas State holds opponents to minimum gains and will force long drives if UL-Monroe looks to score.

Statistics Ryan Aplin (QB jr.) has completed 75 out of 98 attempts this seasons against opponents of similar stature (ie not VTech or Illinois) for a 75.5% completion rating, throwing for 890 yards (1385 overall) in their three wins this season (66.9% overall). Aplin is boasting a gaudy 140.9 passer-rating (175.4 against similar opponents). Did I mention Aplin has a reception for a TD? He does. Arkansas State uses rotating backs in Frankie Jackson (RB fr.) and Sirgregory Thornton (RB so.), both of which boast a gaudy 5.1 and 6.7 yards per carry respectively. Taking out the VTech and Illinois game, this improves to 8.9 and 7.3 yards per carry respectively. Brian Davis (K so.) has made 75% of attempted field goals this season and is 80% within 40 yards. He was the Sun Belt player of the week 2 weeks ago for scoring 23 of Arkansas State's 53 points against Central Arkansas.

UL-Monroe has had one of the toughest schedules to start the year. Losing to Florida State, TCU and Iowa this year, UL-Monroe is struggling to be sure. I can give a team credit for playing superior teams and losing, but the Warhawks have looked bad in every loss scoring 34 combined points in all 3 games and losing by an average margin of 27.7 points. Where the Warhawks have looked good was against a no-name Grambling State, running the score up 35-7 despite 2 missed field goals.

Statistics UL-Monroe is averaging 374.3 yards per game and can move the ball, but struggles with only 75% in the Red Zone, a menial 40% conversion on third down rate and a very poor 4.0 yards per play. UL-Monroe's defense has admittedly had a hard road, but is looking poor in almost every category, most notably allowing 6.1 yards per play, a 66% opponent completion rating and an awful 60.5% third down conversion rating for opponents. Kolton Brown (QB so.) has completed 66 of 114 attempted passes (57.9%) for 571 yards for the season, averaging 142.8 yards per game. Brown's longest pass this season was 42 yards against Grambling State. Brown only has 2 passing TDs this year and 2 interceptions. Brown actually played worse in UL-Monroe's only home game this year against Grambling State with 48.4% completion and a passer-rating of 96.2. The Warhawks also use rotating Running Backs in Centarius Donald (RB so.) and Jyruss Edwards (RB so.). Donald is bar far the superior back with 32 attempts for 209 yards this season for 6.5 yards per carry. Unfortunately three quarters of that total came against an awful Grambling State rush defense. Outside of the game with Grambling State, Donald boasts 20 attempts for 65 yards or 3.25 yards per carry. Without Grambling State, Edwards has 88 yards on 21 attempts averaging 4.2 yards per carry. The Warhawk kicker is terrible. Justin Manton (K fr.) is 2 for 5 this year with a long of 43 yards.

Personal Notes

Arkansas State has not fared well against UL-Monroe historically going 3-7 ATS.

Arkansas State needs to stay disciplined today, they are averaging 6.3 penalties for 60.8 yards per game. UL-Monroe is not too far behind with 6.0 penalties for 60.7 yards per game

Look for Arkansas to finally come together and use both the run and pass effectively Saturday. UL-Monroe will abandon the run game after the half and put the hands in an inexperienced quarterback.

UL-Monroe is averaging 1 less turnover per game than Arkansas State. Both hands on the ball, boys.

UL-Monroe is only forcing their opponent to punt 2.3 times per game. This game will be determined on third downs.

It's hard to really get an overall feel for the Warhawks because of such a tough schedule and only letting up with an FCS Grambling State.

My Picks

Arkansas State -2 @ 3u
I will likely be checking back in for an Arkansas State TT over 27.5

Thank you for reading and as always please feel free to post anything and everything. I read all comments and continue to check picks against any new data presented here. This is a write-up and contains some of the information I use, but not all for the sake of time. I hope this information is useful, despite which way the information is used. Again, Thank you for reading!

EDIT: Forgot to include the record. Fixed.

[Machine Choice]

LOL, 55 games on the board and you choose this one. Why?

[guy Fawkes]

LOL, 55 games on the board and you choose this one. Why?

Good question actually! I do write ups on games that either aren't receiving a lot of buzz or haven't throughout the week. If people want information on Florida @ LSU or Oklahoma @ Texas they can almost blindly click on any link on the front page and be inundated in more than they ever wanted to know.

I'm looking to save cappers some time and homework on the EV plays for the week rather than the highly publicized ones.

Again, great question and thank you for asking!

[Machine Choice]

I'm gonna guess that you are not from the U.S. Anyway, I like your analysis .... most people are too lazy to do that. They cap games based on what they saw on SportsCenter.

I also like choosing low-profile games because sometimes you can find something that the books don't know about, especially if they are not getting alot of action on the game.

[shopbar picks]

Good Pick. ULM avg 17 pts of offense and Ark st 31. Def ULM gives up 30 and Ark st 21. 2 should be an easy cover

[Mr. Doughnut]

LOL, 55 games on the board and you choose this one. Why?

Why does it matter who he writes about? A game is a game?

I understand the Thursday night game or Gameday Sat game are bigger games...but there's normally tons of write-ups and opinions on them. When it comes to big games, opinions are like butt cracks, everyone has them.

I think it's great someone looks into a game not everyone is looking into. The more insight and statistical analysis on the board the better. Correct?

[guy Fawkes]

I'm gonna guess that you are not from the U.S. Anyway, I like your analysis .... most people are too lazy to do that. They cap games based on what they saw on SportsCenter.

I also like choosing low-profile games because sometimes you can find something that the books don't know about, especially if they are not getting alot of action on the game.

I am actually from the U.S. I was born in Illinois and moved to Utah about 2 months ago. I blame the grammar and spelling errors on the fact I'm writing code in the background while I write these.

I appreciate the compliment and hope it helps you in some way! Good luck out there!

[CBASS]

GL to you G Fawkes!

[sandman0713]

ok...so here is a question bro. not sure if you really know these teams or if you just dug up stats...but since you are the only one talking about it i will ask you. i just looked this game over before i noticed this post, and i was about to jump all over arkansas st until i noticed where the line is moving the other way. what makes a line shrink like that when it looks like an easy bet the other way?...and why does the line start moving on tuesday in the offshores in a game nobody gives a crap about? unless there is an injury or something, something is way off here.

[mstone897]

I like this play a lot as well. As a VT fan I watched the Arkansas State game and they impressed me. Outside of Clemson they gave our defense the most trouble this season so far. I've seen UL-Monroe play against FSU and TCU some as well. Good value here on a small action game.

[sandman0713]

you know what...screw the sun belt. if i remember right there was a screwy game like this last week a lot of people were talking about...looked so easy and it lost. good luck to you, but i think i am off the sun belt games for a week or two.

[Greg2011]

I'll b using it thanks

[guy Fawkes]

ok...so here is a question bro. not sure if you really know these teams or if you just dug up stats...but since you are the only one talking about it i will ask you. i just looked this game over before i noticed this post, and i was about to jump all over arkansas st until i noticed where the line is moving the other way. what makes a line shrink like that when it looks like an easy bet the other way?...and why does the line start moving on tuesday in the offshores in a game nobody gives a crap about? unless there is an injury or something, something is way off here.

There may be a key injury, but its questionable at best. Frankie Jackson is being reported as questionable after an ankle sprain.

Jackson is questionable for Saturday's game against Bowling Green after suffering a sprained ankle last week, the Arkansas State Herald reports.

That's from four days ago. Arkansas State hasn't played nor will play Bowling Green this season. Given the odd reporting and the fact that it is reported questionable I am not giving it much credence. As far as line movement I think that it is because Arkansas State almost lost to Western Kentucky last week. After watching the game, it was bad luck all around for the Red Wolves and they still pulled out the W. I imagine Arkansas State's 3-7 ATS record against ULM is also at play in the line movement.

There is gamble to everything in capping, but this game should get a good result 8 times out of 10.

[guy Fawkes]

I like this play a lot as well. As a VT fan I watched the Arkansas State game and they impressed me. Outside of Clemson they gave our defense the most trouble this season so far. I've seen UL-Monroe play against FSU and TCU some as well. Good value here on a small action game.

Glad to be on the same side on a couple this week Mstone

My write ups look more impressive without you presenting good counter-arguments!

GL to you G Fawkes!

Thanks CBASS, GL to you this weekend!

[sandman0713]

i may have to add it...i don't know. like i said...i looked at the game earlier and was about to make it my biggest play saturday. then i noticed the line shrinking, and i remembered a sun belt game last week some pretty good people said was easy but lost. remembered seeing a thread on here about it and came back to read your post...very helpful btw. i will put this on my list of games i am watching the spread and waiting on, and will see where it goes. who knows...if it keeps going maybe i get ark state like +3...lol. good luck you guys.

[guy Fawkes]

Adding Arkansas State TT Over 28.5 for 3u as advertised above.

[guy Fawkes]

went 1-1 for -.3u on this one. Final record 8-3-0 +32.6u

Arkansas State had plenty of chances to get that extra score, just wasn't meant to be tonight.

[Ralphie Halves]

Just saw this now, but I'm 0-4 lifetime betting ASU, so I would have avoided it.

Aplin puts up stats, but constantly plays ASU out of wins and covers. I do not like him Sam I Am.

Since the Sun Belt is so screwy and inconsistent every year, especially this year since there's no clear favorite to win it, whaddya think guy Fawkes, would there be value in betting dogs every week for the in-conference games?? What about dog MLs??

I say this because back when you had guys like Nate Davis and Dan LeFevour in the MAC and there were clear conference powerhouses, you saw them cover almost all the time. After they left, it was wide open every week, and dogs covered more often than not every week (unless it was E Mich).

It just seems like when there's so much unpredictability, like we have in the Sun Belt, just take the dogs and smile.

[guy Fawkes]

Just saw this now, but I'm 0-4 lifetime betting ASU, so I would have avoided it.

Aplin puts up stats, but constantly plays ASU out of wins and covers. I do not like him Sam I Am.

Since the Sun Belt is so screwy and inconsistent every year, especially this year since there's no clear favorite to win it, whaddya think guy Fawkes, would there be value in betting dogs every week for the in-conference games?? What about dog MLs??

I say this because back when you had guys like Nate Davis and Dan LeFevour in the MAC and there were clear conference powerhouses, you saw them cover almost all the time. After they left, it was wide open every week, and dogs covered more often than not every week (unless it was E Mich).

It just seems like when there's so much unpredictability, like we have in the Sun Belt, just take the dogs and smile.

Tough one to answer, sometimes I would say absolutely other times not so much. I think the Sun Belt doesn't see as much action as say the SEC or similar caliber conferences and that causes a lot of oversights on the line-makers part. All of this is after the fact, so you can take it for what it's worth. Before I started posting here I was betting FIU (most times dogs, sometimes favorites) because the majority of the betting populace had never heard of TY Hilton. With a team like ULL now, they look awful on paper and cause a lot of bettors to either stay away or bet the favorite because of their defensive stats. If you watch the games though you see that ULL's time of possession is usually slim and their defense gets a lot of interceptions and fumbles for either great field position or touchdowns.

I really love conferences like the Sun-Belt, the WAC and the like. They don't see a lot of action from the public and often have favorable lines if you are willing to do your homework. Many bettors will look at a team's record, points for and points against and call it a day, teams like these need much more.