Season Record 5-2-0 +26.1u
Hey SBR Forums! I appreciate the praise and following I've gotten in my other write up this week for Arizona St. @ Utah, certainly my pick of the week. This is a game that doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. Capping the game I would put it at Arkansas State -9 to 10.5. I think this is a game that is sliding under the radar and a great chance to pick up some side value in order to go get the big games. Between both teams there has been 1 game that was within 18 points with Arkansas State's most recent victory over Western Kentucky 26-22. So here we go, let's check 'em out!
Arkansas State @ UL-Monroe
Arkansas State is 3-2 losing to Virginia Tech and Illinois, both respectable teams this year. Arkansas State is a contender this year for the Sun Belt Championship, behind a steady offense and a shut-down defense. Arkansas seems to be having an identity crisis early in the year, dominating the run game in some games and dominating the passing the next, not doing both at any point. Arkansas State holds opponents to minimum gains and will force long drives if UL-Monroe looks to score.
Statistics Ryan Aplin (QB jr.) has completed 75 out of 98 attempts this seasons against opponents of similar stature (ie not VTech or Illinois) for a 75.5% completion rating, throwing for 890 yards (1385 overall) in their three wins this season (66.9% overall). Aplin is boasting a gaudy 140.9 passer-rating (175.4 against similar opponents). Did I mention Aplin has a reception for a TD? He does. Arkansas State uses rotating backs in Frankie Jackson (RB fr.) and Sirgregory Thornton (RB so.), both of which boast a gaudy 5.1 and 6.7 yards per carry respectively. Taking out the VTech and Illinois game, this improves to 8.9 and 7.3 yards per carry respectively. Brian Davis (K so.) has made 75% of attempted field goals this season and is 80% within 40 yards. He was the Sun Belt player of the week 2 weeks ago for scoring 23 of Arkansas State's 53 points against Central Arkansas.
UL-Monroe has had one of the toughest schedules to start the year. Losing to Florida State, TCU and Iowa this year, UL-Monroe is struggling to be sure. I can give a team credit for playing superior teams and losing, but the Warhawks have looked bad in every loss scoring 34 combined points in all 3 games and losing by an average margin of 27.7 points. Where the Warhawks have looked good was against a no-name Grambling State, running the score up 35-7 despite 2 missed field goals.
Statistics UL-Monroe is averaging 374.3 yards per game and can move the ball, but struggles with only 75% in the Red Zone, a menial 40% conversion on third down rate and a very poor 4.0 yards per play. UL-Monroe's defense has admittedly had a hard road, but is looking poor in almost every category, most notably allowing 6.1 yards per play, a 66% opponent completion rating and an awful 60.5% third down conversion rating for opponents. Kolton Brown (QB so.) has completed 66 of 114 attempted passes (57.9%) for 571 yards for the season, averaging 142.8 yards per game. Brown's longest pass this season was 42 yards against Grambling State. Brown only has 2 passing TDs this year and 2 interceptions. Brown actually played worse in UL-Monroe's only home game this year against Grambling State with 48.4% completion and a passer-rating of 96.2. The Warhawks also use rotating Running Backs in Centarius Donald (RB so.) and Jyruss Edwards (RB so.). Donald is bar far the superior back with 32 attempts for 209 yards this season for 6.5 yards per carry. Unfortunately three quarters of that total came against an awful Grambling State rush defense. Outside of the game with Grambling State, Donald boasts 20 attempts for 65 yards or 3.25 yards per carry. Without Grambling State, Edwards has 88 yards on 21 attempts averaging 4.2 yards per carry. The Warhawk kicker is terrible. Justin Manton (K fr.) is 2 for 5 this year with a long of 43 yards.
Personal Notes
Arkansas State has not fared well against UL-Monroe historically going 3-7 ATS.
Arkansas State needs to stay disciplined today, they are averaging 6.3 penalties for 60.8 yards per game. UL-Monroe is not too far behind with 6.0 penalties for 60.7 yards per game
Look for Arkansas to finally come together and use both the run and pass effectively Saturday. UL-Monroe will abandon the run game after the half and put the hands in an inexperienced quarterback.
UL-Monroe is averaging 1 less turnover per game than Arkansas State. Both hands on the ball, boys.
UL-Monroe is only forcing their opponent to punt 2.3 times per game. This game will be determined on third downs.
It's hard to really get an overall feel for the Warhawks because of such a tough schedule and only letting up with an FCS Grambling State.
My Picks
Arkansas State -2 @ 3u
I will likely be checking back in for an Arkansas State TT over 27.5
Thank you for reading and as always please feel free to post anything and everything. I read all comments and continue to check picks against any new data presented here. This is a write-up and contains some of the information I use, but not all for the sake of time. I hope this information is useful, despite which way the information is used. Again, Thank you for reading!
EDIT: Forgot to include the record. Fixed.