Firstly, my apologies to those of you that are advanced bettors - I'm sure this is fairly basic as things go. I'm still relatively new to betting and I'd like to get your opinion on it.
I frequently notice a pretty large disparity (3-5 points) in where the spread starts (generally on Monday mornings) and where the spread ends up (usually right before game time). For instance, imagine the following hypothetical Stanford v USC scenario :
Stanford is -1 on Monday morning - and I buy in with $110 dollars (the book I use pays out $100 for a $110 bet)
However, before game time Stanford has moved to -4.5, and I place an equivalent $110 bet for USC (at +4.5)
So if Stanford wins by more than 1 or USC loses by less than 4.5, I make a $10 loss. However, if Stanford wins by between 1 and 4.5, I make a $200 profit. Mathematically speaking, if there is a greater than 5% chance of that occurring, that is a bet I should make. Correct?
Is that line of reasoning accurate? And if so, do you guys know of any way I could go about modeling what the likelihood is of a score falling within a particular range?
Thanks and apologies if I'm making an extremely elementary mistake.