[guy Fawkes]

Hey all, long-time lurker, first time poster. I decided to break the silence because I haven't seen much talk about this game and I feel like this is a game slipping below a lot of radars. I've already hammered the line for as much as I am willing to safely bet, but thought I'd offer some friendly advice to a lot of you that I've been reading reviews from already this year.

Florida International is 3-0 so far this year upsetting both Lousville (week 2) and UCF (week 3), though they both came at a cost. Rockey Vann (WR jr.) is out indefinitely with an MCL tear and Ty Hilton (WR sr.) is questionable with a hamstring injury. Mario Cristobal (FIU head coach) has said he is optimistic about Hilton playing Saturday, despite Hilton only able to participate in 40% of the FIU practices this week. Ty Hilton has caught 17 receptions for 363 yards and 3 touchdowns for FIU so far this season. Wessley Carrol (QB sr.) has only thrown for 45 completions at 568 yards. If Ty Hilton does not play Saturday or even worse, plays with a nagging hamstring injury FIU's offense will have to rely on virtually non-existant (averaging 121 yards/game) running game.

University of Louisiana at Lafayette boasts a 6-2 record against FIU and a 6-1 ATS record against FIU. However, both losses have been in the most recent back to back years. The Cajuns do not have much of a passing game, gaining an average of only 132 yards per game, and the running game is equally lackluster at 121 yards per game. Despite this, ULL has put up 38 points at Nicholls State, 20 points at Kent and 34 points against Oklahoma State. What ULL has lacked in offense this year, the defense has picked up with a menagerie of defensive touchdowns and recoveries with field position.

Personal Notes: I have bet on FIU every game since the Liberty Bowl. I've enjoyed great lines on an oversight of a great receiver in Ty Hilton. I like money and so I've liked FIU, this is the first time I've really had a good reason to bet against them.

A lot rides on Ty Hilton and it likely won't be announced one way or another until late Friday or Early Saturday. If Ty Hilton does not play FIU is in for a hard fought physical struggle against a greatly underrated ULL defense, but bettors can expect a drastic line movement in such a case. If Ty Hilton plays, I'm screwed

FIU is averaging only 27 points per game so far this year, to give 17 points to the ULL defense won't likely even take into account the pick 6's that will be occurring this game.

FIU has a great defense on the ground and will force an inexperienced ULL QB to throw much more than he has been. Look for bad passes to be flying from both quarterbacks with regularity in this one.

I never gurantee picks, but I believe if this game was played 10 times, ULL would win 6. Plenty of a chance for a +600 team.

My Picks
ULL +17 @ 4u
ULL ML @ 2u

Thanks for reading and feel free to comment. Let's go Cajuns!

[moses millsap]

good post, good luck on this play, might take a bite myself

[as99]

Do you think ULL will cover +17 with Ty Hilton in the lineup?

[guy Fawkes]

That's where it gets tricky. He is a speedster and can outrun the ULL cornerbacks without a second thought. If Ty Hilton plays the entire game I think FIU could easily cover. If he can only play 1 solid quarter I think ULL is a pretty sure cover here.

[Ralphie Halves]

Cristobal is the Head Coach AND the trainer??

[guy Fawkes]

Cristobal is the Head Coach AND the trainer??

That's what researching at midnight will do to you! Good catch, Cristobal is the head coach not the trainer. Although at FIU, they may be looking for dual-role staff

Again, thank you Ralphie, you are 100% correct on that and I will edit the post to avoid further confusion.

[dume walker]

One of the things that impressed me most about FIU is the incredible number of sacks they've been making. I believe that had 6 on Godfrey in the UCF game, one of which lead to a fumble that FIU returned for a TD with just seconds left in the 1H. And I don't think Godfrey had ever been sacked before.

Still, I'm down with you on ULL on this game. Thanks for the insightful post.

[guy Fawkes]

Congratulations to any who followed my write-up. +600 coming through in epic fashion.

Edit: In my original post I had said I followed FIU in the Liberty Bowl. That is obviously false as UCF played Georgia. I had bet in FIU's bowl appearance, though obviously not the Liberty Bowl.

Again, congratulations guys!

[guy Fawkes]

Sorry for the double-post. Just excited I guess.

[dume walker]

Actually, I gave credit to another poster initially. But I did get down on this ATS based on your write-up. Thanks!

[dume walker]

And congrats on your ML win! You certainly deserved that one!