[Chispa]

this system can be backtested. Anyone interested?

Here're the '06 Saragin numbers.

I pulled together the lines and scores for '06. Here are the ATS winning results for '06:

BCS National Championship
Florida 41 vs. Ohio State 14 [Line FL +7]
Glendale, Arizona Jan.8

________________________________________ ________
Previous Results
Poinsettia Bowl
TCU 37, Northern Illinois 7 [Line TCU -12]
San Diego, Cal. Dec. 19

Las Vegas Bowl
BYU 38 vs. Oregon 8 [Line BYU -3]
Las Vegas, Nev. Dec. 21

New Orleans Bowl
Rice 17 vs. Troy 41 [Line Troy +4.5]
Lafayette, La. Dec. 22
PapaJohns.com Bowl*
South Florida 24 vs. East Carolina 7 [Line SF -5]
Birmingham, Ala. Dec. 23
New Mexico Bowl*
New Mexico 12 vs. San Jose State 20 [Line SJS +3]
Albuquerque, N.M. Dec. 23
Armed Forces Bowl
Utah 25 vs. Tulsa 13 [Line Utah -2.5]
Fort Worth, Texas Dec. 23
Hawaii Bowl
Hawaii 41 vs. Arizona State 24 [Line HI -8.5]
Honolulu, Hawaii Dec. 24
Motor City Bowl
Central Michigan 31 vs. Middle Tennessee 14 [Line CM -8.5]
Detroit, Michigan Dec. 26

Emerald Bowl
Florida State 44 vs. UCLA 27 [Line FSU +3.5]
San Francisco, Ca. Dec. 27
Independence Bowl
Oklahoma State 34 vs. Alabama 31 [Line OSU -2]
Shreveport, La. Dec. 28
Holiday Bowl
California 45 vs. Texas A&M 10 [Line Cal -3]
San Diego, Ca. Dec. 28
Texas Bowl (former Houston Bowl)
Rutgers 37 vs. Kansas State 10 [Line Rut -8.5]
Houston, Texas Dec. 28
Music City Bowl
Clemson 20 vs. Kentucky 28 [Line Kent +11.5]
Nashville, Ten. Dec. 29
Sun Bowl
Oregon State 39 vs. Missouri 38 [Line Missou +3.5]
El Paso, Texas Dec. 29
Liberty Bowl
Houston 36 vs. South Carolina 44 [Line SC -4.5]
Memphis, Ten. Dec 29
Insight Bowl
Texas Tech 44 vs. Minnesota 41 (2OT) [Minn +8]
Phoenix, Az. Dec. 29
Champs Sports Bowl
Purdue 7 vs. Maryland 24 [Line MD +1.5]
Orlando, Fl. Dec. 29
Meineke Car Care
Navy 24 vs. Boston College 25 [Line Navy +8]
Charlotte, N.C. Dec. 30
Alamo Bowl
Texas 26 vs. Iowa 24 [Line Iowa +9]
San Antonio, Texas Dec. 30
Chick-fil-A Bowl (former Peach Bowl)
Georgia 31 vs. Virginia Tech 24 [Line Georgia +3]
Atlanta, Ga. Dec. 30
MPC Computers Bowl
Miami (FL) 21 vs. Nevada 20 [Line Nevada +3]
Boise, Idaho Dec. 31
Outback Bowl
Tennessee 10 vs. Penn State 20 [Line PS +3.5]
Tampa, Florida Jan. 1
Cotton Bowl
Auburn 17 vs. Nebraska 14 [Line Auburn -1.5]
Dallas, Texas Jan.1
Gator Bowl
West Virginia 38 vs. Georgia Tech 35 [Line GT +9.5]
Jacksonville, Fl. Jan. 1
Capital One Bowl
Arkansas 14 vs. Wisconsin 17 [Line Wisky +2.5]
Orlando, Fl. Jan. 1
Rose Bowl
USC 32 vs. Michigan 18 [Line USC +1.5]
Pasadena, Cal. Jan. 1
Fiesta Bowl
Boise State 43 vs. Oklahoma 42 [Line Boise +7]
Phoenix, Ar. Jan. 1
Orange Bowl
Louisville 24 vs. Wake Forest 13 [Line Lou -10.5]
Miami, Fl. Jan. 2
Sugar Bowl
Notre Dame 14 vs. LSU 41 [Line LSU -9]
New Orleans, Louisiana Jan. 3
International Bowl
Cincinnati 27 vs. Western Michigan 24 [Line WM +7]
Toronto, Ontario Jan. 6
GMAC Bowl
Ohio 7 vs. Southern Miss 28 [Line SMU -6.5]
Mobile, Alabama Jan. 7


If anyone has the time, inclination and smarts to figure the system's results for '06 - you'd be my hero.


p.s. Man, putting up those scores and lines brought back some memories.

[Machine Choice]

Here're the '06 Saragin numbers.

I pulled together the lines and scores for '06. Here are the ATS winning results for '06:

BCS National Championship
Florida 41 vs. Ohio State 14 [Line FL +7]
Glendale, Arizona Jan.8

________________________________________ ________
Previous Results
Poinsettia Bowl
TCU 37, Northern Illinois 7 [Line TCU -12]
San Diego, Cal. Dec. 19

Las Vegas Bowl
BYU 38 vs. Oregon 8 [Line BYU -3]
Las Vegas, Nev. Dec. 21

New Orleans Bowl
Rice 17 vs. Troy 41 [Line Troy +4.5]
Lafayette, La. Dec. 22
PapaJohns.com Bowl*
South Florida 24 vs. East Carolina 7 [Line SF -5]
Birmingham, Ala. Dec. 23
New Mexico Bowl*
New Mexico 12 vs. San Jose State 20 [Line SJS +3]
Albuquerque, N.M. Dec. 23
Armed Forces Bowl
Utah 25 vs. Tulsa 13 [Line Utah -2.5]
Fort Worth, Texas Dec. 23
Hawaii Bowl
Hawaii 41 vs. Arizona State 24 [Line HI -8.5]
Honolulu, Hawaii Dec. 24
Motor City Bowl
Central Michigan 31 vs. Middle Tennessee 14 [Line CM -8.5]
Detroit, Michigan Dec. 26

Emerald Bowl
Florida State 44 vs. UCLA 27 [Line FSU +3.5]
San Francisco, Ca. Dec. 27
Independence Bowl
Oklahoma State 34 vs. Alabama 31 [Line OSU -2]
Shreveport, La. Dec. 28
Holiday Bowl
California 45 vs. Texas A&M 10 [Line Cal -3]
San Diego, Ca. Dec. 28
Texas Bowl (former Houston Bowl)
Rutgers 37 vs. Kansas State 10 [Line Rut -8.5]
Houston, Texas Dec. 28
Music City Bowl
Clemson 20 vs. Kentucky 28 [Line Kent +11.5]
Nashville, Ten. Dec. 29
Sun Bowl
Oregon State 39 vs. Missouri 38 [Line Missou +3.5]
El Paso, Texas Dec. 29
Liberty Bowl
Houston 36 vs. South Carolina 44 [Line SC -4.5]
Memphis, Ten. Dec 29
Insight Bowl
Texas Tech 44 vs. Minnesota 41 (2OT) [Minn +8]
Phoenix, Az. Dec. 29
Champs Sports Bowl
Purdue 7 vs. Maryland 24 [Line MD +1.5]
Orlando, Fl. Dec. 29
Meineke Car Care
Navy 24 vs. Boston College 25 [Line Navy +8]
Charlotte, N.C. Dec. 30
Alamo Bowl
Texas 26 vs. Iowa 24 [Line Iowa +9]
San Antonio, Texas Dec. 30
Chick-fil-A Bowl (former Peach Bowl)
Georgia 31 vs. Virginia Tech 24 [Line Georgia +3]
Atlanta, Ga. Dec. 30
MPC Computers Bowl
Miami (FL) 21 vs. Nevada 20 [Line Nevada +3]
Boise, Idaho Dec. 31
Outback Bowl
Tennessee 10 vs. Penn State 20 [Line PS +3.5]
Tampa, Florida Jan. 1
Cotton Bowl
Auburn 17 vs. Nebraska 14 [Line Auburn -1.5]
Dallas, Texas Jan.1
Gator Bowl
West Virginia 38 vs. Georgia Tech 35 [Line GT +9.5]
Jacksonville, Fl. Jan. 1
Capital One Bowl
Arkansas 14 vs. Wisconsin 17 [Line Wisky +2.5]
Orlando, Fl. Jan. 1
Rose Bowl
USC 32 vs. Michigan 18 [Line USC +1.5]
Pasadena, Cal. Jan. 1
Fiesta Bowl
Boise State 43 vs. Oklahoma 42 [Line Boise +7]
Phoenix, Ar. Jan. 1
Orange Bowl
Louisville 24 vs. Wake Forest 13 [Line Lou -10.5]
Miami, Fl. Jan. 2
Sugar Bowl
Notre Dame 14 vs. LSU 41 [Line LSU -9]
New Orleans, Louisiana Jan. 3
International Bowl
Cincinnati 27 vs. Western Michigan 24 [Line WM +7]
Toronto, Ontario Jan. 6
GMAC Bowl
Ohio 7 vs. Southern Miss 28 [Line SMU -6.5]
Mobile, Alabama Jan. 7


If anyone has the time, inclination and smarts to figure the system's results for '06 - you'd be my hero.


p.s. Man, putting up those scores and lines brought back some memories.

Sorry man, but no good...the Sagarin link you posted is the rankings AFTER the bowls were complete. You need the rankings from BEFORE the bowls. I don't know if they're even available. I just started this sytem last year, so I can't go back further than that.

[Machine Choice]

3-0


The next scheduled play is TCU -3 on Tuesday. I'll see you then.

[Regul8er]

Man, your not getting the best lines.....you should be able to find TCU at -2.5

[losturmarbles]

Man, your not getting the best lines.....you should be able to find TCU at -2.5

-2.5 -120 = -3 -105 at most books

[IrishGuy82]

3-0... you may have something here Machine. Look forward to seeing how this goes. Thanks for the post (and the money today!)

[Regul8er]

Good Win for you tonight.
I just dont believe in systems, too many variables that get in the way! Officiating, untimely turnovers, etc...

[Gundog]

Well it's not if you believe in a System or not (sometimes you just gotta go with your gut). I agree about all the Variables look at BYU'S Sloppy play tonight. And on a few ocassions the Refs looked like they give BYU a second chance, and the bad call at the start of the game on the Fumble recovery they took away from BYU (it all adds up)
They still got rattled.
I went with the Machine tonight and im happy with my 3 Team Winners.

[bamasman47]

Great information!

[ANDYW15]

Fairplay, this has worked out great. hopefully the streak continues. Good work.

[rdskipper]

Machine, I like the system stated I'm just curious how TCU fits. TCU is ranked 9th with a 76 ranked schedule and Boise State schedule is ranked 113. Doesn't the 76 ranking eliminate TCU? Thanks.

http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/sports/cfsend.htm

[Machine Choice]

Machine, I like the system stated I'm just curious how TCU fits. TCU is ranked 9th with a 76 ranked schedule and Boise State schedule is ranked 113. Doesn't the 76 ranking eliminate TCU? Thanks.

http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/sports/cfsend.htm

Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs.

Boise's SOS is 113, TCU is the play even though both teams have an SOS below 60.

[jackpot269]

Wish I Had seen this sooner thanks for the info and work that you've put in this im on board til we lose 2 also. Was leaning towards Boiss St now im on TCU. We will see. GL all

[accuscoresucks]

I'm not sure if I am going to play this system or not. But last year it went 10-2.

Here it is: Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs. Take every top 60 team whose SOS is better than 60 AND who is facing an oponent whose SOS is worse than 60.

So here are the teams to take ATS this year:

USC
Alabama
Wake Forest
South Florida
Arizona
TCU
NC State
Missouri
Rice
Kentucky
UCONN
Ball State

actually i use the kind of the same thing i never bet against a top 65 team always against the bottom 66-125 where the line offerd by books is half of what a model shows

[rockhardfister]

Im on this now - TCU tomorrow - too bad I already have ML Penn State

[ZBOIZ]

Looking kind of good champ

[easy_pickens]

Stickin' with you today!!

[IrishGuy82]

Good luck tonight Machine. I took TCU at -3. Get that 4-0!

[SportsLockPicks]

not gonna happen...whoever was on Boise tonight..DO NOT let this post sway you...

[SportsLockPicks]

my system is as unproven as this and it says boise state -1...that is 4 points to the plus

but i am all about delving into these systems...its all we can do as bettors to get that cash..don't take this as a knock to the post..i just don't want someone who already had Boise set in stone and then lose their money because of reading this...which i think they will

[SportsLockPicks]

this has been tested in ONE bowl season, using just sagarin and sos...come on..i could make something up using any stat data in any sport over a 12 game stretch...come on..this couldn't even be considered a litmus test

[Machine Choice]

Lost TCU by a nut....they decided not to kick the FG as time expired

3-1


Next plays

NC Sate +7
MIZZOU -12.5

[easy_pickens]

Well, it was thought that in the list of teams there was going to be probably 2 that did not pull through. TCU showed up to be number 1. But knowing the possibility looms that a couple will fall short is to be expected. I had a last minute change made to reflect Boisie as my pick and that turned out positive! So, maybe one or two more on the list? Im still with ya Machine!

Going to the Sheraton Bowl today and it looks to be a normal day here on Oahu. That would be sunny and temps in the 80s. Perfect Christmas Eve weather here.

[L2Gunz]

[Machine Choice]

At my book...

NC STATE still at +7

MIZZOU now at -12

[easy_pickens]

I feel good about NC state, but Missouri I'm just not sure that's not gonna be one of those teams you thought might not cut it, Machine. So far so good!

[Machine Choice]

4-1

[Machine Choice]

6-2

[Machine Choice]

7-2

[Machine Choice]

Bama
UCONN
BALL St still to come

Kentucky pending

[easy_pickens]

Well Machine, I used the list to construct 2 parlays. I inserted Boisie in one versus TCU pick and I now wait on Alabama for one and U Conn for the other one tomorrow. Thank you again for sharing that info. I don't think I could have done both parlays without your help. One is mine and one's off what you shared! Much appreciated!!! Happy New Year!

[Machine Choice]

Kentucky delivers

8-2

[Machine Choice]

9-3

One play left....BALL ST +2.5

[Dark Horse]

11-1 last year and 9-3 this year with one to go. Yeah, that would pass the test.

Nice!

[easy_pickens]

Darn if Alabama didn't mess me up!