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Machine Report: The Holy War
MACHINE CHOICE FOTBALL: 10-5
BYU and Utah both come in off close losses, but I'm more impressed with Utah's close loss to USC (on the last play of the game) than by BYU's loss to Texas.
BYU is listed as a -4 favorite, but I don't see the evidence. They beat Ole Miss (barely), who just got smoked by Vanderbilt, and they lost to a bad Texas team (yes, UCLA is THAT horrible).
Utah comes in with the superior QB. Wynn's career stats: 7.3 ypa and 28/14 ratio compared to Heaps 5.9 ypa, 17/12 ratio and 2/3 ratio this year. Utah also has a superstar WR in DeVonte Christopher who had 16.9 ypc last year and caught 136 yards on USC last week.
Against a USC team that returned 7 starters on defense, Wynn threw for 238 yards and a TD and no picks. BYU returns only 5 starters on defense, lost their top three tacklers, and this year's best linebacker Ogletree is hobbled with concussion symptoms. I think Wynn will eclipse 200 yards passing for a second week.
Utah is starting a new running back, so BYU may have an edge there, but realize that Utah returns 3 of its top 4 tacklers from last year's defense that allowed only 3.2 ypc! USC did not run great on Utah, as their stud RB Marc Tyler only averaged 4.5 ypc on Utah (he averaged 5.3 ypc against all teams in 2010). As a a team, USC only averaged 3.9 ypc against Utah.
Utah is off next week, while BYU has to play the C-USA champions UCF.
Underdog is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings, road team is 11-5 ATS inthe last 16 meetings.
Utah may win this straight, but I'll take the points.
UTAH +4
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Originally Posted by Kindred
