[ritehook]

I don't mean "redemption" in a religious "Good Book" sense - gave up all that nonsense at age 14, when I actually read parts of it and saw all the nonsense, esp the heavy emphasis on bloodlines. Sounded like something out of The Thoroughbrd Record. Not to mention the howler about ol' Joshua stopping the sun in it's march thru the heavens. (Those old boys didn't know the earth revolves around the sun, not the reverse, so if the thing was in fact written by God he was keeping some little secrets from his transcribers.

No, I mean for the horrendously shi11y performance I put here last bowl season. Ugh, it is stil painful to contemplate.

And after I'd done very well, sometimes very, VERY well in the college bowls (not that I don't want a playoff, i sure do).

That kind of redemption. And there ain't no guarantees. I just want to see if I can do OK posting online.

For why I don't believe that God writes books, I do suspect some supernatual entity watches our words and our thoughts, and either rewards or punishes. And boasters are always punished, or so it seems to me.

And posting plays publicly is the most egregious form of boasting. And the gods will smack you down.

I try never to boast of good weeks. Because I know wht that fickle old broad name Ms Lady Luck has in store.

Still, I will post my bowl picks on this thread. With all humility.

[ritehook]

I just started looking at the bowls. First easy week I had for the last month. But I just am now getting into it.

And then one popped out on me. Paterno's gang getting 10 pts. Yes, I know it's in the Trojan back yard. And I know that Pete Carrroll does get his players up for the post season game, and esp the Rose. (Pete is 5-2 SU in the bowls)

But JoPa is 23-10-1 SU in the postseason, only ol' Bobby Bowden comes even close to that. And Lions getting 10 pts.

In the postseason I rate my bets as 1 unit, 1.5 and 2.

This is a 2.

PENN STATE +10 (USC) 2 UNITS

[ritehook]

Don't have time to check it right now, but the Under in the Trojan/Lion game looks good.

I'll have those, if available, near kickoff

[bypp]

I really like that game as well. USC is good, but PSU isn't just going to be walked all over. Right now, I don't see them winning, but I can definitely see them keeping it within 10!

[ritehook]

I'm of the same mind.

On numbers alone I make the Paternos only a 2 pt dog, on a neutral field. I mean, both suffered their only loss to an unranked team. And I don't think the Pac 10 is superior to the Big 10. Not by any means. The P10 was weaker this year than they've been in quite a while.

Even giving the Trojans five points for "home field," it would still be a cover. And, I wouldn't give Troy that many pts for home field. Penn State fans travel well, they'll be a lot of Lion backers roaring in the Rose Bowl.

And because history has shown that if you give a good Paterno team some real players, and almost a month to prepare, he usually comes up with a way to win. Or keep it close. That's worth most of the USC home field.

I'd make this game mabe USC -4. And, as it looks now, low-scoring. May not be over 40 pts scored. (Correlated parlay, anyone?)

[ritehook]

Would I be correct, btw, that no offshore book will take a correlated parlay?

[ritehook]

NOTE: I MISTAKENLY PUT THIS ON THIS BOARD. POSTED IT ALSO ON ORIGINAL THREAD, BUT CAN'T DELETE THIS. CAN'T FIGURE OUT HOW

This isn't the NFL foots board, but I started a separate thread for the bowls, so I'll finish the NFL season here.

Actually hit a 2 team parlay last week. Wow, call in the marching band. Or the clowns.

NFL SUNDAY

MIAMI -1/2 First Quarter (San Fran)

Frisco playing better with Hill at qb, but I'll stay with the West to East jetlag theory. Miami trying to get into playoffs.

DENVER +7.5 (Carolina)

Broncos are THE Jeckyll/Hyde team this season. Hard to tell how they'll play. Bu this season I've been fortunate (so far) in deciphering their readiness.

I think they'll be ready this week, vs Panthers. Latter just came off a big win on Mon nite vs a division rival, in the hotly contested NFC South.

Denver has already beaten (incl once on road) the other 3 teams in NFL South. I think they can add Carolina to the list, or at least keep it under the spot,with their strong passing attack.

Monday

CLEVELAND +14 (Philadelphia) [1/2 unit]

No, I'm not a Browns fan. Not from Cleveland (tho many moons ago I did live there, right off Euclid, with a pretty secretary, while I travelled the Midwest, selling stuff. That area is probably a war zone now.)

Just basing it on Philly having come off a big game LW vs division rival and leader NY Giants, and with a win in their pocket.

Philly's got Wash and Dallas on tap. My thinking is that Browns can keep it closer than the 2 tds they're being given.

BTW, I've noticed that the last couple weeks this thread is being put on the main board. Not me doing it, I like to stay in this little corner for the selections.

[ritehook]

It's late, I gotta go to a collectibles show tomorrow AM. So can't do a full write-up, but have bet two bowls for tomorrow

ST PETERSBURG:

MEMPHIS +11 (S Fla) [1 unit]
I do understand that S Fla is solid defensely, and are playing here not far from home. But two things allow me to risk a unit on Memphis: they are double digit dogs, and in games before Chiristmas DD dogs have historically done well in bowls.

And, I like teams that are hot at season's end, if playing cold teams at season's end. Memphis won 3 or thier last 4, S Fla lost 3 of 4 at end of season,.

The line on this has moved from +13 to +11. 13 would have been nicer but I'll take the 11.

LAS VEGAS

BYU +3.5 (Arizona) [1 unit]
Cougars had a bad ATS record, 3-8. They were overvalued during season, here they look like good value, and should be able to match Arizona in the scoring department.

And, Pac 10 was no world beater this year.

[ritehook]

0-2 so far in the bowls.

Gee, this redemption stuff is a lot harder than it looks.

Well, gotta keep tryin' to climb those golden stairwells, and so tonight will go with:

BOISE STATE +3.5 (TCU) 1 unit

That's the current number at the Scores and Odds composite site, It may eke into 4 by kickoff.

BSU went 12-0, versus a weaker schedule than 10-2 TCU.

But, the best team played by the Frogs was at Oklahoma, and no surprise they were whipped by 25 pts.

Best team played by BSU was Oregon, whom they beat - in Corvallis.

TCU gives up about 8 pts per game avg, BSU about 12.

TCU appears a shade better on Defense, BSU a bit better on Offense.

Doesn't look like a lot separates these guys. In which case I'll go with the dog.

[htfdc102]

Psu only faced 1 good defense this year...Ohio St and they struggled big time against them. Now they will face a defense that allowed an avg of 7 points a game this year, USC is playing at home and their offense is very good I think this is a bad spot for Psu who I feel was very over rated this year, they proved that when they lost a big road game against a weak Iowa team with National title hopes in on the horizon. Going with USC.

[ritehook]

Nice to see a game go as you figured, ie, the close one between TCU and Boise St.

In the closing seconds I could almost hear the bettors worldwide who were on TCU and - 3 or so, screaming at their TVs, urging HC Patterson to kick the FG, to give them the cover!

But Patterson did the right thing for his team, ran out the clock. Well, almost. And got his one point win. And BSU backers the cover!

EMERALD BOWL

Miami Fl/California UNDER 50 [1 unit]

Cal can run the ball some, but both teams got to the postseason mainly via their good stop units.

Miami comes in with 5 suspension, including a long snapper and the starting QB. So a backup will be under center.

I'm waiting to see if a line moves on another Sat game

[ritehook]

Psu only faced 1 good defense this year...Ohio St and they struggled big time against them. Now they will face a defense that allowed an avg of 7 points a game this year, USC is playing at home and their offense is very good I think this is a bad spot for Psu who I feel was very over rated this year, they proved that when they lost a big road game against a weak Iowa team with National title hopes in on the horizon. Going with USC.

Penn St only faced one good defense this year - well, two, Iowa was another, and they lost by one point.. But USC lost by a TD to Ore St, ranked at season-end only 33 on Total Defense. Only two Pac Tenners in top 25 on Total Defense are Arizona and Calif. I know that Zona covered the spread, can't recall what Cal did vs USC.

Actually, Trojans allowed closer to 8 pts average per game. Helped by three shutouts, two of 'em over Wash and Wash State, surely the two sorriest outfits of all the BCS teams!

Not to say that USC does not have a sterling D - they sure do, and what has to worry JoePa is that they are tough defensively in the red zone, tied for 10th in that ranking (with four other teams.)

Offensively they're good, not great, not IMO even "very good." (Ranked 14th in Total Offense, PSU ranked 15th) Great defenses help their offenses to pad stats - that goes not only for USC but also for the Paternos.

Lions lost to Iowa by one point. USC to Oregon State by, I think, 6. Both Iowa and Ore State were, I believe, unranked at the time.

To believe that USC is ten points better than Penn St you will have to believe, I surmise, that the Pac 10 was the better conference this year, and so faced tougher competition.

I don't think the facts bear that out. The Pac 10 had fewer returning staters than any other conference this year, as P Steele pointed out pre-season, and that showed in their overall strength.

Most observors of college foots will, I believe, agree that the Big 12 and the SEC are easily the two strongest leagues in college football. (With the better one to be decided, I would guess, in the national championship game.)

On the botttom of the BCS conferences are probably the ACC and the Big East. (I know Sagarain has the ACC on top of all the leagues - I think he's smokin' somethin' he shouldn't be).

In the middle are the Pac 10 and the Big 10. Not much difference. I think the Anderson/Seattle Times poll give a very slight edge to the Big 10, while Sagarin nods slightly to the Pac 10.

These leagues are about the same, quality wise. It's true that USC easily disposed of Ohio State, but that was early in the season. The Bucks were a much tougher team later on, when PSU just squeezed by them.

If you agree that the quality of opposition was similar, then check out the stats. Also very equal. Like, Total Offense: USC # 14, Penn St #15. Total Defense: USC #1, PSU # 5.

And so on down the list. Lions on top in some, Trojans in some, but usually the other team close. SC much stronger in red zone defense, but PSU has a much stronger red zone offense than does Troy.

Also, Penn State ranks 3rd nationally in fewest penalties, only a bit over 3 per game. USC is near the bottom in that stat, with about 8 penalties a game. (PSU was penalized 336 yds during the season, USC 888 yds. In what looks like a tough defensive struggle, those penalties could loom large.)

Finally, it's true that USC is playing in L.A. - tho the Rose Bowl isn't their home stadium, it's where their crosstown rival, UCLA, play their home games. But yes, it is their backyard.

I'd set against that advantage the master bowler, Mr Joseph Paterno. Wins well over twice as many bowl games as he loses - give Joe a month, he'll find a way to win.

I think the 10 is too high. But we will see. I do appreciate your input, and what you also have going for you is that the two times I've been challenged by posters, I belive they were right twice (certainly re Ball State earlier this season) and I was right 0 times.

Odds on your side - but I still like the Old Guy to cover and maybe even win this one outright. I have my bet on on the spread, and may put hot dog money in on the ML.

[ritehook]

The Meineke Car Care Bowl --- this is one big reason we're decades away, apparently, from a playoff. The lead sports writer for Yahoo.com (forgot his name, Wetzel maybe?) had a long article the other day explaining how the BCS people have ripped off college football and the schools, with this bowl nonsense, and how the schools would have a lot more $$$ if they let the NCAA stage a playoff, just like they do for hoops.

Oh well, let me get past the editorial and to the game.

NORTH CAROLINA +2.5 (W. Virginia) 1 Unit

I was going to pass on this game, but when the number went to +2.5 I jumped in.(I take my number from Scores and Odds - at the books it ranges right now on late Fri night between +1.5 and +2.5, I got the 2.5 at 5 Dimes and bought into +3.)

I'm generally going to pass any bowl team that won 4 or less games last year, as was the case with the Heels. I feel that when they make that kind of turnaround and get a bowl they're usually just happy to be there.

And, West Virgina is no slouch defenseively, tho points have been scarce for them lately. And, they were overvalued this year, going only 4-7 ATS.

But that the NC team is in the very capable hands of Butch Davis, and very good assistants, swayed me to make the wager. Davis is 4-0 SU in bowls, acquired when he was the HC at Miami Fl in the '90s.

Clearly, he knows how to prepare his team for the postseason. I had the game on my sheet as a pick em, but you do have to go past raw power ratings, esp in the postseason.

And I'm hoping Davis can again work his post-season magic.

I should have the rest of my bowl selections posted here sometime tomorrow, as well as - on the other thread - the final week of the NFL season.

Tho I may not have all my bowl totals plays up tomorrow. Should have all the sides tho.

[ritehook]

Error, see next reply

[ritehook]

Two here right now, I expect to have all, or almost all, my other plays (sides and totals) posted here within 2 hours or so of the end of the SD/Denver game.

Got lucky in the Emerald with an easy cover of the Under.

DEC 30

HOUSTON BOWL

WESTERN MICHICHAN/RICE OVER 73.5 [1.5 UNITS]

Number has been rising as game day approaches, Always happens with the Overs - Joe Sixpack bets late, and he lover the Over and the Fave. Someday I'll learn to get my Over plays in earlier.

Two teams that know little defense, but are all about airing it out. Nice weather forecast for Tuesday in Houston.

ARMED FORCES BOWL

AIR FORCE/HOUSTON OVER 64.5 [I Unit]

Repeat performance for these two - they met in Texas (neutral site) back in Sept. Posted total then was 51, they scored (I think) 59.

Sure, it is a concern that the Cougars have played against the Falcons and know the option offense. No suprise. Still, they rank # 90 vs the rush.

And AF is but mediocre vs the pass. So even with the chance of some wind gusts to 25 mph on Wednesday in Ft Worth, I'll go with the Over.

(Numbers were taken about 20 mins ago at Scores and Odds)

[ritehook]

I won't be able to get all my bowl play on tonite - still licking my wounds after getting guillotined the last two week in the NFL (think I'll henceforward forget betting the pros after Week 14 or 15).

Here's two side for the next two days. Maybe I can come back a little later with a few more. I gotta go get a little snack tho first.

PAPA JOHNS BOWL (Hmm, maybe I'll grab a small pizza, there's a place two blocks away . . .)

NORTH CAROLINA STATE +6.5 (Rutgers) 1 Unit

Interesting game. Teams were mirror images of each other, both starting the season like cellar dwellers, and both teams tuurning it around in second half of season.

Rutgers sr qb Teel looked like a jackass at first, beating only a Div 1-AA team. And the redshirt frosh at NC St also appeared like a comedian.

But both began playing better, and both got into this bowl.

Hard to figure the 6 1/2 NC State is getting here - only won 6 games (Rutgers won 7) but played a much tougher schedule, IMO.
And, they were 9-2 ATS during the season (tho Knights were 8-3 ATS as well).

Wolfpack HC O'brien is 6-1 SU in bowls (AP says 7-1); he said after losing his first bowl game he learned how to prepare his team for the postseason. RU HC Schiano is 2-1 SU in bowls.

I gotta take the points here. And I bought up to a 7.

HUMANITARIAN BOWL

MARYLAND +1.5 (Nevada) [1 Unit]

It's my view that sometime you have to focus on just a few factors in a matchup. If you take in the whole picture in this game, for instance, you'll note that Terps have not played on a carpet all season; now, they're on one of the hardest in the land, the infamous blue rug in Boise.

And, the cold. Nevada is used to it.

And, the fact that the Wolfpack is ranked 2nd (I think, or 3rd) in the nation in rushing -- they do it with their QB with the funny name, who operates out of the "pistol," (half a shotgun) and is as much a RB as he is a QB. More so in fact. And, Maryland is only around 74 in run defense.

OK. Here are the counter facts that I'm going with:

Terps are small up front defensively, and played much bigger O-lines, in the ACC, than Nevada will field. Here, they get O lineman their own size,or almost so.

And: Terps beat the four teams that were ranked in top 25 when they played them. 4 for 4 vs ranked teams.

Nevada played 3 ranked teams during the season. And lost all of them. They also lost to New Mexico State, a pass-happy team.
Terps will have to get their passing game going vs Pack, as the latter are near the bottom in defending the air game.

Finally, Nevada HC Chris Ault is only 1-4 SU in bowls - and since he is the fave here, he has to win to cover.

IF - here is the "if" - the Terps come to play, if their heads are into it, they should, by virtue of outclassing the Pack - win the game. I can't read their minds - but it's worth a one unit wager.

[ritehook]

No pizza places open late Sun nite - only Mickey D's and their clones. So a can of veggie soup and some salsa for flavor did the job.

I'll pass the Alamo (tho I do remember it, Travis, Bowie, Davy, that gallant crew) and move to the Holiday.

HOLIDAY BOWL

OREGON +3 (Oklahoma St) [1 Unit]

One neg re this play is tht the winning bowl coaches seem to be winning agian, and Mike Bellotti is only 5-6 SU in bowls, while Gundy of Okie St is 2-0.

But -- the Ducks' top RB, Johnson, says he's recovered enough to play in the game. (Tho I always felt that unless a RB is one of the top 4,5 in the land, and the entire offense is built around him, you can get some pointsread value if he's replaced, good rbs tend to be a dime a dozen)

Okie State's bread and butter is to run the ball, Oregon is good at stopping same. Oregon also good in the run game - ranked 4th. (Ok St ranked 27 in rush defense)

I do believe that the Big 12, overall, is a higher quality league this year than the Pac 10 - tho latter did win both the bowls they were in so far this season, with the 12 yet to play a bowl game.

However, of all the teams from the 12 in the bowls, it appears to me that that Cowboys played a slightly weaker schedule than the others from that conference.

One stat that swayed me to get on the Ducks is that Okie State's O Line is one of the 17 worst in the land in allowing sacks ---- and that Oregon defense is among the top 7 nationwide in sacking the opposing QB.

I'll greedily take the 3 points for one unit.

ARMED FORCES BOWL

AIR FORCE +3.5 (Houston) [1 Unit]

I already have the Over here for one unit, so now I'll add to the game by taking the Falcons and the points.

AF did beat Houston early in the season, in a game moved to a neutral site due to Hurricane Ike. But both teams have changed some during the season, esp Air Force, and I like their changes.

Halfway thru the season the HC inserted a freshman as QB. He can run, of course, all option QBs can, but he can also pass, and the Falcs now havee what is called a "triple option." IE, more dimensions than the Cougs saw last time out.

And of course Air Force can still run, and the Cougs are still poor in that dept.

Falcons well have to disguise coverages and play well vs the hot passing game of Houston, but I'll take the 3 and hook and enjoy the game (I hope!)

Back Monday with the rest, or most of the rest!

[ritehook]

Normally I would do these more or less in chroniclogical order, but as I believe the number will soon rise let me delay no longer and hit the

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME, 1-8-09

FLORIDA -3 (Oklahoma) [1.5 units]

Let's first look at the injury situation.

Key WR Harvin is expencted to play for Florida.

But key running back and returner DeMarco Murray is OUT for the Sooners.

Like all good programs Oklahoma has other very capable backs, Madu and Brown (I think I've the names right), but Murray was also an excellent receiver, and kept opponents guessing depending on where he lined up. A key loss. He also was an excellent return man.

What effect the repaired hand of Heisman Winner Bradshaw will have on the game is unknown.

Sooners one of th top teams in land in nailing the QB behind the line of scrimmage. But somehow, I don't think they'll be able to work that magic with last year's Heisman winner (and he should have won again this year), Tim Tebow.

Adding to the special teams woes of the Sooners with the absence of Murray is that while the Gators rank 8th nationally in net punting, the Sooners are so far down the chart there I didn;t have time to search the list.

Okla will be up against an excellent defense -- easily the best they've faced since getting beaten by Texas.

All systems look go for Gators. I'd have bumped this to 2 units if I could get -2.5, but the number at 3 of my 4 outs is already at -3 -115 or -120, and where it still is at -3 (Skybook, as of this writing) they want to charge 135 to bring it down a half.

I think the 3 is good enough. Just that I would have bet another half unit (2 units is my top bet in bowls) if 2.5 was obtainable.

I will be putting up the final bowl games I'm on this year. Very shortly . . .

[ritehook]

By "this year" I mean 2008. Will probably delay the rest of the Jan game until tomorrow, maybe tonight.

[ritehook]

Using another font, I get tired of looking at the same "verdana" all the time.

I'm through the Armed Forces Bowl, with a side and total in that.

So continuing on NY Eve (when even the most alcoholic college foots fan stays at least resonably sober, ot watch the games)
let me stay out of the Sun and go to the

MUSIC CITY BOWL

BOSTON COLLEGE -3.5 (Vanderbilt) [1 Unit]

Being played in Nashville, but with a small student body and not likely many of the high IQ alumni much interested in football, the stands will not likely be overflowing with Commodore fans.

BC won and covered all their last 4 regular season games; they did lose SU and ATS vs Va Tech in the ACC Championship game.

Vandy, conversely, started strong, winning first 5 games out of the box, and then struggled to get the bowl-eligible sixth one under their belts, finally beating Kentucky. They were thus 1-6 SU in their final games.

This is not uncommon among smaller schools (and I think Vandy has about one-tenth the student enrollment that most other SEC colleges enjoy). N Illinois was the same way, coming out pretty strong, and fading in the second half.

It's due to the fact that while the smaller schools will sometimes have frontline players who match up well with their brothers in the bigs, the injuries and fatigue of the season, as it wears on, gets them down to the much less talented second and third stringers.

BC is hardly the offensive power they were last year, when Matt Ryan was pulling the trigger. This year they started the raw "Ichabod" Crane, and now that he's hurt and out, they'll go in this bowl with a frosh that will be making only his 4th start at QB.

Howver, BC has a very good RB, and I suppose he'll get most of the heavy work.

But their defense is excellent, and that should be enough here. As a matter of fact, Vandy's D is also pretty good, unusual for a small, big-brain private school.

I see Eagles winning, but not much scoring.

Which is why I am also going to wager a unit on

BOSTON COLLEGE/VANDERBILT UNDER 41 [1 Unit]

A small number, to be sure, but see the above final few paragraphs for my reasoning.

I can't see the Insight Bowl, so let me go to the

PEACH BOWL

GEORGIA TECH -4 (LSU)

Paul Johnson came down from Annapolis and did a good job. Definitely an improved defense.

LSU is in a rebuild year.

True, Johnson is only 2-2 SU postseson, while Miles is 4-2 (and 3-0 with LSU, as one poster pointed out) but this years edition of his Tigers is definitely less than the prior 3.

They also have had nothing but chronic injuries at the QB spot, and will not be at there best in that key slot in this game.

Conversely, it looks like some 5.6 Ga Tech players may be out for this game.

There is also one other factor I've noticed in the last few years, a "trend" that I have not have time to check out longer term. It's not one of the millions of mindless trends out there, but a smart one, reasonable. It shows as negative for G Tech.

It they fail to cover, I'll research it further offseason. Meanwhile, I rate this game as One Unit, but in fact will be betting only about 75% of one unit on Ga Tech.

And that is also so for my next bet game, in the

OUTBACK BOWL

IOWA -4 (South Carolina) [1 unit]

Because Hawkeyes did look good this season esp defensively, and were the sole team to best Penn State. S. Carolina was up and down, tho in a stronger league.

I've listed it as One Unit, but will bet the Hawks at about 75% of my one unit standard.

(OK, I went past New Years Eve, so more than two games.)

[ritehook]

I usually put in a bowl teaser, for a half unit. This will be on teams that I am not likely betting straight on, unless line changes more than it's likely to.

Here's a three teamer. Six points. HALF UNIT PLAY


OLE MISS + 4.5 TEASE TO +10.5

Rebels can play D - they beat Florida by one point. But the current coach is very bowl negative - 2-5 SU, at least according to Careless Phil. Lemme take the teased pts!

OHIO STATE +8.5 TEASE TO +14.5

Texas may be "emotionally disappointed" said ex-Sooner coach Barry Switzer, after apparently losing out on a chance at the nat'l championship. (Tho one poster says that if they win and if Oklahoma wins there could be a split championship, which I think may have happened about five years ago, with LSU and USC)

Still, Buckeyes are better now than early in season, so the 2 tds plus looks good.

TULSA +2 TEASE TO +8

Hoke bailed on Ball,to try the near impossible task of breathing life into the Aztec program (and he has no contacts with HS coaches in Calif)

This may affect Ball negatively, as may their big loss as big faves in the MAC champ game.

Anyway, teaser for HALF UNIT: OLE MISS - OHIO STATE - TULSA

[ritehook]

Note:

On the write-up for the north carolina state/rutgers game i said that wolfpack hc was 6-1 su in bowl games.
While noting that the ap in their game writeup they said he was 7-1.

Well, as may be expected, ap was right, and phil steele (from whose preseason book i got those figures) was wrong. It is 7-1 for o'brien.

I have now to wonder how many other errors steele made in his stats on that score. While one game off may not mean much if you are 7-1, it could mean something with a lower total.

Steele maybe should pay less heed to such useless information regarding what the teams did 5 or 10 years ago, and learn how to count better on things that really matter to the bettors, who comprise most of the purchasers of his preseason book.

Next season i'll research and do my own figures re that topic.

[ritehook]

I'm into the New Year and almost finished, I'll leave the last game or two until tomorrow or NY Eve.

I'll stay away from that Gator, but will see what's in my wallet to get some money to play the Capitol One Bowl.

MICHIGAN STATE +7.5 (Georgia) [1 Unit]

Even with their 9-3 record the Dawgs gotta be one of college football's bigger disappointments this season. Picked by many preseason as the Number One team, and sporting top players like the QB Stafford and RB Moreno, they first lost to 'Bama and then got brutalized by Florida.

They underperformed their rep, and may not have their hearts in this game. It's why they were 3-8 ATS. You could see their performances going down, almost game by game.

Not that much was expected of the Spartans this year - picked 7th in Big 10 by Phil Steele. But Dantonio may have his team on the right track in his 2nd year at the helm.

Granted that the SEC is the better conference than the Big 10. Still, MSU beat five bowl teams this season, while Georgia beat only 4.

What's strange is that while they have two of the top running backs in football (Ringer for MSU, ranked 3rd, Moreno for Ga, ranked 16th) they are only #s 66 and 54 respectively in that dept, separated by only about 16 yds per game.

I think the team that gets its running game going sooner and better is the winner here.

Stafford is a first round NFL pick is he comes out this year, but MSU ranks under 30 in pass efficiency defense.

Georgia' run defense was in the top 10 early on, but declined as th season wore on - they now rank #41. MSU was mediocre from the start, and still is (in the 70s).

Spartans may get help from a mistake-prone Dawgs team, way down in the rankings re penalties incurred, like 73 yds per game.

This game is a stepping stone for MSU, while it's a question as to how much it means to Georgia, after being shelled by Florida at the cocktail party.

Georgia coach Richt is bowl positive at 5-2 SU (Dantonio only 1-1) but again (a)will the Dawgs have their heads totally into this game and (b) can they cover over a TD?

I'll bet a unit that MSU wants it more.

The Rose, I early on in this thread made Penn State a 2 unit play at +10. The Orange, for me, is the pits. The Cotton starts my 3 game teaser, already noted. And while I don't at this moment prefer death to Liberty, I'll also pass on that, tho E Carolina is a small lean. And I already went with Florida in their winner take all contest with Oklahoma.

Not much left, back before New Years Day with what there is. And I think I may open a thread in the NFL forum for the few playoff picks I may have.

[ritehook]

In the

SUGAR I'm on

UTAH +9.5 (Alabama) [1.5 units]

Well, it is Mtn West vs SEC.

But checking the Sagarin ratings for strenght of schedule I note that 'Bama has the second lowest schedule strength ranking of all the SEC teams, outdoing only Kentucky.

They played such schools as Tulane, Arky St, Arkansas etc

But they are from SEC, have a much bigger fan base than Utah and will have a lot of fans in stands.

Still, the best of the Mtn West and the WAC have done well in bowls against the big BCS college. Putting aside Hawaii's embarrassing performance last year vs Georgia, Boise, BYU, and Utah have done well enough in the postseason against the Bigs.

Tide has another advantage, in that they do not hurt themselves with penalties. Only around 35 yds penalized per game, while Utah draws around 60.

But Utah is my 1 1/2 unit play. Because . . .

Their defense matches will will Alabama's offense. I think they win that battle, with a sollid mix of running and passing. (It's Utah, yes, but the QB and starting runners are blacks from California)

Defensively, even allowing for the somewhat softer Mtn West schedule (tho they beat TCU, Oregon State, and BYU, all bowl teams) I'd rate them almost equal to Bama.

PLUS, TWO BIG FACTORS: (1) the Alabama All-American Offensive lineman and Outland Trophy winner was on Monday suspended from this game. That will hurt the Tide rush attack, and maybe the QB protection. High quality linemen out of action are actually more important in college ball than missing a starting RB.

(2) What former Oklahoma head coach Barry Switzer referred to as "emotional disappointment". (He was discussing the job Texas coach Mack Brown would have with his team missing the championship game after Oklahoma blew out Mizzou. While it's possible that Brown has talked his players into believing that if they win vs OSU they have a shot at a split nat'l champ, such is not the case for Bama.)

Tide players thought they were going to the championship game, as late at the start of the fourth quarter in their season finale vs Florida. They led by 3 at that time, but ended up losing the game.

"Our players," said Saban, after the game, "were certainly disappointed . . ." He went on to issue some boilerplate about how good teams come back from such setbacks to win the next game. Right.

And there's the 9 1/2 you get with Utah. That's the current number at Scores and Odds, but I bet it at Skybook last night, and got a free half point up to +10. Which it where it was until the lineman got suspended.)

[ritehook]

I think maybe NC State would have beaten Rutgers outright, had not their starting QB gone down and out with injury about halfway through. (Because the sub was a dud.)

They still covered the 6.5 or 7. OK for pointspread bettors, not good for ML folk.

And: re "bowl positive" and "bowl negative" coaches.

Positive coaches (say, at least 2 SU wins in bowls more than losses, four decisions minimum) are so far this bowl season, by my count: 5-0 ATS.

Coaches with two more SU losses than wins in bowls, also four decisions mimimum: 0-1. The ever popular Christ Ault of Nevada, who is now 1-5 SU in post season.

Teams with bowl positive coaches yet to play: LSU, GEORGIA, TEXAS TECH, TEXAS, FLORIDA.

I'm on only one of these teams (Florida), and agaisnt a few -- hope I don't regret it.

A coach who almost makes the list, Whittingham of Utah, is 3-0 postseason.

The Rose Bowl, with Paterno and Pete, is a wash with both coaches qualifying.

[ritehook]

And bowl negative coaches on teams yet to play:

VIRGINIA TECH - OLE MISS

[ritehook]

Hmmm, the GMAC Bowl? Didn't they just receive a bailout? Taxpayers are financing bowl games now?

INTERNATIONAL

UCONN -5.5 (Biuffalo) [1.5 Units]

Turner Gill has done a remarkable job turning around Buffalo, this once cellar-dwelling team. He installed an aggresive style of play that brought them the MAC championship.

Bulls actually lead Div 1-A in forcing and recovering fumbles. Uconn rushers and receivers, BEWARE!

However --- Buffalo's overall defense is not good, even agaisnt weak MAC opponents. (MAC so far in bowls is 0-3 SU & ATS)

Uconn is in top ten in Total Defense, Buffalo almost in bottom ten in that department.

Huskies are poor passing team, but can run: about 204 ypg. Bulls, by contrast, only run for 104 ypg.

Buffalo is likely happy to just be here, after a huge, emotional win for them as dogs of 15 pts vs previously undefeated Ball State in the MAC Championship.

Emotion Edge solidly to UConn. (Tho of course Huskies would rather be somewhere else than Toronto.)

And altho Toronto is but 50 miles from Buffalo, I doubt we'll see an overwhelming presence of Bulls fans, predominating over those from UConn.

Defese of UConn should get the job done and the offense enough on the ground to get the win.

GMAC

BALL STATE/TULSA OVER 76.5 [1 unit]

Big time scoring teams, 11th and 2nd respectively on total offense, 55 and 84 on defense.


T-t-t-t hats All, Folks.

I should be over on the Nfl Board sometime tonight or tomorrow - more likely tomorrow - with NFL bowl picks.

The best of the Luck to all on this New Year's Day!