Machine Plays: 1-1
This game falls into the category of: prove me wrong, Georgia! Prove to me that you are worthy of backing. Cause right now you haven't proved shit and this line appears way off. Boise returns 14 starters, Georgia returns 12. Last year Georgia was 0-2 ATS in neutral-site games and 0-3 as an away dog. Boise St was 4-1 ATS as an away favorite, and 2-0 ATS in neutral-site games.
Boise State has started both of the last two years by knocking off a Top 20 team, and both times they had the guy that will be under center tonight: Kellen Moore. Although Moore now loses his two leading receivers, he will have WR Tyler Shoemaker and TE Kyle Efaw, both of whom are lethal. He also gets back his starting RB Doug Martin who averaged 6.3 ypc last year.
On defense, Boise St returns 7 starters and the last time they had that many returning starters (2008) they allowed only 12.6 ppg. Georgia also returns 7 starters on defense, but that isn't saying much given that they allowed 22 ppg (much higher if you throw out the Idaho State and Louisiana-Laffayette games) and gave up an average of 5.2 yards per play last year.
Georgia has lost their top two receivers (which included A.J. Green) and RB; they'll have to show me something before I back them. If they can do it, they deserve my money. But recent history says they won't.
BOISE ST -3