Originally Posted by
suicidekings
Houston ML (-136) x1
Houston/Tulsa Under 77 (-110) x1
I don't care about the line movement or the arguments for Houston buckling under the pressure. That's all BS. Case Keenum and this Houston team (11 starting seniors) is not going to lay an egg in this game, with the chance to go 12-0 and have a historic season for this school. They're fighting for respect in the BCS, and next year this team will be a shadow of its former self (Much like Auburn last year, who knew the program would lose a lot of talent to graduation). This is their year, now or never (ie: several rebuilding years later).
The last two seasons, these teams have played very tight games, with Tulsa winning last year in Houston. I make this line to be Houston -3.5, but these teams are very close in their abilities. At the very least I expect this game to be competitive if not Houston putting their foot down. Numerous claims of trap games and fixes will follow when Tulsa starts fast, only to be overwhelmed by Houston later in the game.
Tulsa can definitely win this game with their high-tempo offense but then we're talking about a shootout, which I don't think this game will be. I think too much weight is being put on the line being what it is, and less into the matchup itself. The argument that has been applied to Houston regarding not playing anyone tough can also be applied to Tulsa in a somewhat different way. Tulsa played some very tough opponents early in the year in OU/OKState/Boise, but they got killed in those games. They lost by an average of 26 points and gave up 365 passing yards per game to three outstanding QBs. In these three games, they scored 56 total points, with only 13 of them coming in the first halves of the games when they were up against the best these three teams had to offer. The rest came in garbage time when the game was already lost. IMO, playing the tougher teams means very little if they weren't competitive in the games. Case Keenum is in the same company as Jones/Weeden/Moore and I just don't think Tulsa is going to be able to match offense with Houston. They know they're outgunned so they'll do what good teams do and try to play good defense and try to keep Keenum sitting on the bench as much as possible so he doesn't get in rhythm. I've decided to add a play on the Under to this game as well.
This is a huge game for both of these teams. The winner will play Southern Miss in the CUSA title game and both are trying to go a perfect 8-0 in conference (and Houston 12-0 overall).
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