Many of you may have followed my posts over the last couple of seasons, but for those of you that have no clue what I'm talking about I have provided some background info. In summary, my passion for sports has led me to create a mathematical system designed to extrapolate value in Vegas’ lines. The system enables me to eliminate the lines that have little to any value and exploit the lines with a high probability of winning. Also, the system allows me to have an objective opinion and it mitigates the human element of handicapping. You must remember that this is a marathon not a sprint. My system gets stronger and stronger as the season wears on, because there is more and more relevant data to utilize.
Last year was tough. We finished the College Football season down 4.3 Units and the NFL season down 1.4 Units. Don't let this turn you away from following this thread. My system is designed to win over the long haul. The 2009-2010 College Football season ended up 38.4 Units, while the 2009-2010 NFL season added another 1.3 Units. Meaning that over the last two years we are up a total of 34 Units in College Football and NFL combined. This is not a magic formula, but it is consistent. Plus, unlike other handicappers that come and go, I am here to stay and I won't hide after a bad week, month, or year. I hope you enjoy the picks, and I look forward to hearing your comments. Good luck!!
Overall Record (0-0-0) 0 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-0) 0 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (0-0) 0 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (0-0) 0 Units
Total Unit Based Record (0-0-0) 0 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (0.00%)
Finally, College Football season has arrived. Tonight, my system has three picks. My 3 Unit pick is UNLV +34.5. With the addition of Russell Wilson, Wisconsin is a team that has been overhyped throughout the offseason. Will Wisconsin have a great season? Likely. Will they win the Big 10? Maybe. Will they cover tonight's spread? Doubtful. My system has Wisconsin beating UNLV by the score of 45-17 and outgaining them by approximately 150 yards. Despite the huge disparity in yardage, UNLV will find a way to cover this spread. 60% of the public is on Wisconsin, yet we are seeing reverse line movement. This game is an opening day trap for the average joe. Good luck!
Overall Record (1-2-0) .8 Units *****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units ****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units ***3 Unit Picks*** (1-0) 3 Units **2 Unit Picks** (0-0) 0 Unit *1 Unit Picks* (0-2) -2.2 Units
Total Unit Based Record (3-2.2-0) .8 Units Risk Adj. Winning % (57.69%)
Today should be an exciting start to the season. I have two 3 Unit Picks on the card, as well as a number of 2 Unit and 1 Unit Picks. In total, we have 30 Units at risk on this first Saturday of the College Football Season. As you can see, my system likes a lot of underdogs to keep it close today. Looking at Western Michigan against Michigan, I have this game capped at Michigan -5 with a very slight chance of Western Michigan pulling off the upset. My prediction is that Michigan will win by the score of 33-28 and outgain Western Michigan by about 15 yards, but don’t be suprised if the score ends up in favor of Western Michigan. As for MTSU, I have the game capped at Purdue -6. Good luck and enjoy today’s action!
***3 Unit Picks***
Middle Tennessee State University +16.5
Western Michigan +13.5
**2 Unit Picks**
Kent State +38
Florida Atlantic +35
UL Monroe +29
Troy +15.5
Arkansas State +20
Rice +24.5
UL Lafayette +38
Fresno State +10
Tulsa +25
*1 Unit Picks*
ECU +21
Minnesota +24
Houston -2.5
Buffalo +30.5
Oregon -3
Boise State -3
Last edited by TheKnuckleballer; 09-03-11 at 12:54 AM.
Reason: needed to add date to title
Overall Record (9-10-0) -3.7 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (2-0) 6 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (2-7) -11.4 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (5-3) 1.7 Units
Total Unit Based Record (15-18.7-0) -3.7 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (44.51%)
Yesterday was a long day. At times it looked as if we were going to have a great day, but we ended up down 4.5 Units on the day. Of note, the Western Michigan/Michigan pick was cancelled due to the cancellation of the game in the 3rd quarter. As for today, I have just one 2 Unit Pick. I have the total in the Marshall/West Virginia game capped at 44, which means that 53 is too high. Good luck, and I hope everyone is enjoying the games!
**2 Unit Picks**
Marshall/West Virginia Under 53.5
Who doesn't love Thursday night football? Tonight, I have Oklahoma State winning by no more than 8 points. In fact, there is a chance that we might even get to see an upset tonight. My predicted score for this game is 33-28 Oklahoma State. Arizona’s ability to keep this game within the number will depend primarily on their ability to convert 3rd downs. Last season, Arizona converted over 49% of their 3rd down attempts. Let’s hope that continues as the Wildcats travel to Stillwater. Good luck and enjoy the game!
Overall Record (9-11-0) -7 Units *****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units ****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units ***3 Unit Picks*** (2-1) 2.7 Units **2 Unit Picks** (2-7) -11.4 Units *1 Unit Picks* (5-3) 1.7 Units
Total Unit Based Record (15-22-0) -7 Units Risk Adj. Winning % (40.54%)
Tough loss last night. The Wildcats did not show up to play. My system gave Arizona about a 91% chance of covering, but you always have to contend with that remaining 9%. Time to look towards the weekend. Tonight, I have one 1 Unit Pick. No time for a write up, but I will be back tomorrow picks and write ups. Good luck!
*1 Unit Pick*
Missouri +9
Last edited by TheKnuckleballer; 09-09-11 at 07:32 AM.
Reason: fix some data
Overall Record (10-11-0) -6 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (2-1) 2.7 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (2-7) -11.4 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (6-3) 2.7 Units
Total Unit Based Record (16-22-0) -6 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (42.11%)
Below are today's picks. Sorry I posted so late, but I had some late night and early AM computer problems. I have two 4 Unit Picks, and I will try to provide some write ups later today if I get a free second. Good luck and enjoy the picks!
****4 Unit Picks****
Nevada +27
Ball State +20
***3 Unit Picks***
ECU +17
Georgia +3
North Texas +21
**2 Unit Picks**
NC State/Wake Forest Over 50.5
New Mexico State +20.5
MTSU +11
UTEP +19.5
Indiana +7
Fresno State +28.5
UAB +23.5
San Jose State +21
*1 Unit Picks*
Auburn +5.5
Central Michigan/Kentucky Over 48
Florida Atlantic +32.5
Hawaii +5.5
Southern Miss/Marshall Over 51
Northern Illinois -4.5
Northern Illinois/Kansas Under 62
UAB/Florida Over 53.5
UConn +2.5
Utah +8.5
Overall Record (19-24-1) -14.6 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-2) -8.8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (3-2-1) 2.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (8-9) -3.8 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (8-11) -4.1 Units
Total Unit Based Record (33-47.3-.3) -14.6 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (40.94%)
After struggling last Saturday, Week 3 has finally arrived. Today's card is stacked full of big plays. I have three 4 Unit Picks, two of which are UPSET ALERTS! Look for Temple to beat Penn State and Utah to upset BYU. I have both dogs covering and winning these matchups. As for my final 4 Unit Pick, I have Navy keeping it close against South Carolina. This will shock the SEC nation, but I have Navy losing by less than a touchdown. Even in a worst case scenario, my system doesn't see this game getting outside of 17 points. The score for my worst case scenario is South Carolina 35 and Navy 18. Thus, this is a strong 4 Unit Pick that was on the verge of becoming a 5 Unit Pick. Good luck and enjoy today's games!!
****4 Unit Picks****
Temple +7
Navy +16.5
Utah +3.5
***3 Unit Picks***
Eastern Michigan +28.5
Army +5
Arkansas State +24
Idaho +35.5
Louisville +4.5
Tulsa +13.5
**2 Unit Picks**
Wyoming +9.5
Miami Ohio +5
Kent State +17.5
UTEP +3
*1 Unit Picks*
West Virginia +2
West Virginia/Maryland Under 57
Ole Miss/Vanderbilt Over 47
Michigan State +5
Virginia +10.5
Tennessee +9.5
Akron +34
Nevada -6
Tulane +13
Houston/Louisiana Tech Under 69.5
North Texas +47
Ohio State +2
Syracuse +15
Today should be fun. We are starting to accumulate some 2011 data and the "general public" is getting overconfident after two weeks of hanging with the oddsmakers. Today's card is filled with value. Good luck and enjoy the action!
P.S. I will be checking in from time to time today if you have any questions regarding specific games. I will be happy to share my line in relation to Vegas' line.
Overall Record (33-36-1) 2.8 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (3-2) 3.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (8-3-1) 13.8 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (10-11) -4.2 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (12-20) -10 Units
Total Unit Based Record (68-64.9-.3) 2.8 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (51.05%)
Last weekend was great. We picked up 17.4 Units and went 3-0 with our 4 Unit Picks and 5-1 with our 3 Unit Picks. Now we must move on to Week 4. Tonight, I am starting off the weekend with a strong 4 Unit Pick. I wish we had spotted this game earlier when the line was at UCF +3.5, but I still love this pick at UCF +2. I have this game capped at UCF -9 with a total of 44.5. The public loves BYU in this spot, but I fully expect UCF to win this game by 7+ points tonight. In fact, my system is giving a UCF a 66% chance of winning this game by at least 7 points. Should be a good start to another strong Saturday of College Football. Good luck and enjoy the pick!
Overall Record (33-37-1) -1.6 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (3-3) -1.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (8-3-1) 13.8 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (10-11) -4.2 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (12-20) -10 Units
Total Unit Based Record (68-69.3-.3) -1.6 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (49.42%)
Time to bounce back from a tough Friday night loss. UCF outgained BYU by 139 yards tonight, but 3 turnovers and a few special teams mistakes prevented them from winning. Saturday, I have my first 5 Unit Pick of the season with Missouri at +19.5. Even in a worst case scenario, my system doesn't have Missouri losing by more than 15 points. My system has this game capped as a pickem with a total of 48.5. Thus, I would recomend taking Missouri and the Under in this matchup. In fact, this game has the makings of a potential upset. I also have a couple of 4 Unit Picks and three 3 Unit Picks for your viewing pleasure. Enjoy the action and check out my NFL Picks on Sunday!
*****5 Unit Pick*****
Missouri +19.5
****4 Unit Picks****
Kansas State +12.5
Wyoming +21
***3 Unit Picks***
California +1
Tulsa +28
Missouri/Oklahoma Under 56.5
**2 Unit Picks**
Pitt +7
Ohio +4
Middle Tennessee State University +12.5
UL Lafayette +16.5
LA Tech +19.5
Kentucky +19.5
UTEP +29.5
Nebraska/Wyoming Under 58
Colorado State +10.5
*1 Unit Picks*
Eastern Michigan +28.5
Memphis +23.5
UCLA +4.5
Florida State +2.5
Arkansas +11
Tulane +10
Vanderbilt +15.5
Overall Record (45-47-1) 5.5 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0) 5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (4-4) -1.6 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (9-5-1) 10.2 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (17-13) 5.4 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (14-25) -13.5 Units
Total Unit Based Record (96-90.2-.3) 5.5 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (51.47%)
Last week, we put together a solid College Football and NFL performance picking up some Units in both sports and putting us back in the black. Tonight, I have UTEP covering with relative ease. My system has this game capped at Houston -6 with a total of 60. Steer clear of the total, but look to take UTEP at +17. Houston will likely outgain UTEP by about 70 yards, but UTEP should have very little trouble keeping this game within the number permitting that they don't lose the yardage battle by more than 140 yards. Good luck and enjoy the games!
Overall Record (46-47-1) 9.5 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0) 5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (5-4) 2.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (9-5-1) 10.2 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (17-13) 5.4 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (14-25) -13.5 Units
Total Unit Based Record (100-90.2-.3) 9.5 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (52.49%)
We picked up a big 4 Unit win on Thursday. Now it's time to roll into Saturday and pick up some more Units as my system is starting to hit on all cylinders. Saturday's card is full of value. As usual we have a huge collection of plays, including two 5 Unit Picks. My system has Nevada covering with ease against Boise State. The line is currently at Boise State -27, but my system has this game capped at Boise State -10. In the worst case scenario for this matchup, my system has Boise State outgaining Nevada by 163 yards and winning by the score of 42-15. Thus, there is enough value in this line to make it a 5 Unit Pick. My other 5 Unit Picks is Idaho at +15.5. My system has this game capped at Virginia -1 with the Cavaliers having very little chance of covering the spread. In the worst case scenario for this matchup, my system has Virginia outgaining Idaho by 159 yards and winning by the score of 36-18. According to my system, this is highly unlikely. Take the points in each of these games and enjoy another great Saturday of College Football. Good luck!
*****5 Unit Picks*****
Nevada +27
Idaho +15.5
****4 Unit Pick****
NC State +10
***3 Unit Pick***
Purdue +12
**2 Unit Picks**
Texas A&M/Arkansas Under 62
Mississippi State +7
Minnesota +20
Buffalo +28.5
Buffalo/Tennessee Under 54.5
Akron +8.5
Kent State +15.5
Bowling Green/West Virginia Under 61
Ball State +39.5
North Texas +23
UAB +17
Hawaii +4.5
Oregon State +18
*1 Unit Picks*
Indiana +14.5
Texas Tech -6.5
Kentucky +30.5
Georgia Tech/NC State Under 63
Auburn +10.5
Arizona +12.5
Memphis +23.5
Nebraska +10
Overall Record (61-56-2) 20.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (3-0) 15 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (5-4-1) 2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (9-6-1) 6.9 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (24-19) 6.2 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (20-27) -9.7 Units
Total Unit Based Record (130-108.9-.7) 20.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (54.26%)
Last weekend was great. Now we are on to Week 6 of the College Football schedule. I have started plugging the numbers and this week's card is full of value. In fact, I have two 2 Unit Picks to help us get off to a good start this Thursday. Both Western Kentucky and Cal are underdogs, but my system has both teams covering with relative ease. I have the first came capped at MTSU -5.5 and the second game capped at Oregon -10.5. Good luck and enjoy the picks!
**2 Unit Picks**
Western Kentucky +11.5
California +24
Overall Record (62-57-2) 20.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (3-0) 15 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (5-4-1) 2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (9-6-1) 6.9 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (25-20) 6 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (20-27) -9.7 Units
Total Unit Based Record (132-111.1-.7) 20.2 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (54.14%)
Tonight, I have one 2 Unit Pick as we gear up for a big Saturday full of picks. My system has tonight's game capped at Boise State -15 with a total of 58.5. Thus, you should ignore the total and take Fresno State at +21. Good luck and check back tomorrow morning for some more winners!
**2 Unit Pick**
Fresno State +21
Overall Record (62-58-2) 18 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (3-0) 15 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (5-4-1) 2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (9-6-1) 6.9 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (25-21) 3.8 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (20-27) -9.7 Units
Total Unit Based Record (132-113.3-.7) 18 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (53.66%)
We have a full card today with two 5 Unit Picks on tap. My first 5 Unit Pick is Boston College at +21. My system has this game capped at Clemson -5 with a total of 43. In the worst case scenario, my system has Clemson winning by 18 and outgaining Boston College by 107 yards. My second 5 Unit Pick is Connecticut at +19.5. My system has this game capped at West Virginia -4 with a total of 45.5. In the worst case scenario, I have West Virginia winning by exactly 19 and outgaining Connecticut by 167 yards. I hope you enjoy today's College Football action, and I encourage you to reach out to me with questions regarding specific games. Good luck!!
*****5 Unit Picks*****
Boston College +21
Connecticut +19.5
****4 Unit Pick****
Maryland +15
***3 Unit Picks***
Akron +17
Kent State +16.5
Iowa State +15.5
**2 Unit Picks**
Kentucky +21
Florida +13
Vanderbilt +29
Louisville +13.5
Connecticut/West Virginia Under 58
Eastern Michigan +21
Utah +3.5
Texas A&M/Texas Tech Under 72
Colorado +29
Ohio State +10
San Jose State +13.5
*1 Unit Picks*
Kentucky/South Carolina Over 42.5
Boston College/Clemson Under 52
Auburn +10
Washington State +3.5
Minnesota +14
Memphis +20.5
Indiana +14
Kansas +31
Iowa +4.5
Air Force +14
Marshall +19.5
Arkansas State -2.5
Texas Tech +9.5
Wyoming +12
Overall Record (73-78-2) -7 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (3-2) 4 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (6-4-1) 6 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (10-8-1) 3.3 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (28-29) -7.8 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (26-35) -12.5 Units
Total Unit Based Record (151-157.3-.7) -7 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (48.87%)
Last week was dreadful, but my system is ready to bounce back with some strong Week 7 picks. We will start it off with a small Thursday night winner. My system has the San Diego State/Air Force game capped at pickem, meaning neither team has a distinct advantage. Take the points and enjoy the football. Also, my system has a slight lean towards Cal at +3 at home against USC, but nothing strong enough to make it a play. Good luck!
Overall Record (74-78-2) -6 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (3-2) 4 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (6-4-1) 6 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (10-8-1) 3.3 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (28-29) -7.8 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (27-35) -11.5 Units
Total Unit Based Record (152-157.3-.7) -6 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (49.03%)
Last week was dismal, but my system is ready to bounce back with some big winners in Week 7. I have just one 4 Unit Pick. Eastern Michigan is squaring off against in state rival, Central Michigan, and I expect the score to be closer than the "experts" think. My system has this game capped at Central Michigan +1.5, so I would encourage you to take the 12 points and watch for a potential UPSET. Good luck and enjoy Saturday's games!
****4 Unit Pick****
Eastern Michigan +12
***3 Unit Picks***
Utah +6
Memphis +14
UL Monroe +7.5
UAB +21
Arizona State +14
**2 Unit Picks**
Indiana +39.5
Indiana/Wisconsin Under 60.5
Buffalo +21
Duke +12
Colorado +16
Central Florida +3.5
Tennessee +17
Western Kentucky +2.5
New Mexico +29.5
Colorado State +32
Ole Miss +27.5
Wake Forest +6.5
Washington State +21
UAB/Tulsa Under 59
Kansas +35.5
*1 Unit Picks*
Purdue +12
Baylor +8
Rutgers -3.5
Rice +4.5
BYU +3.5
Utah State -3
Overall Record (84-94-3) -17.3 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (3-2) 4 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (7-4-1) 10 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (13-9-2) 8.7 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (31-41) -28.2 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (30-38) -11.8 Units
Total Unit Based Record (174-190.3-1) -17.3 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (47.63%)
Above is my updated record after a tough couple of weeks. Hopefully we can get back on track this weekend. Tonight, I have Rutgers winning by a touchdown. Take the points and enjoy the nice start to the weekend. Good luck and remember this is a marathon not a sprint!
Overall Record (84-94-4) -17.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (3-2) 4 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (7-4-1) 10 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (13-9-2) 8.7 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (31-41) -28.2 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (30-38-1) -11.9 Units
Total Unit Based Record (174-190.3-1.1) -17.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (47.62%)
Missed field goals and turnovers killed us tonight. We were lucky to walk away with a push. On Saturday, I have two 4 Unit Picks. I have Boise State winning by just 20 points against Air Force. Also, I have Hawaii beating New Mexico State by just 8 points. Look for both of these dogs to cover the spread and help us recover from a rough two week stretch. Good luck and enjoy the action!
****4 Unit Picks****
Air Force +29
New Mexico State +21.5
***3 Unit Picks***
Eastern Michigan +12.5
Colorado +31
Rice +10.5
**2 Unit Picks**
Cincinnati +3
Buffalo +14
Boston College +21
Iowa State +20.5
Minnesota +24.5
Army +11
Tennessee +29.5
*1 Unit Picks*
Indiana +23.5
New Mexico +41
Georgia Tech +2.5
Maryland +18
ECU/Navy Under 64.5
Texas Tech +28.5
Washington State -3
Overall Record (93-104-4) -15.1 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (3-2) 4 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (9-4-1) 18 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (14-11-2) 5.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (35-44) -26.8 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (32-43-1) -15.4 Units
Total Unit Based Record (195-209-1.1) -15.1 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (48.14%)
The last few weeks have been tough, and we have failed to gain much traction. Tonight, I have a 3 Unit Pick on tap. I have tonight's Rice v. Houston game capped at Houston -24.5 with a total of 63.5. Stay away from the side on this game, but look to take the Under at 71.5. There is significant value in this line, and I will be shocked if this game goes over the posted total. Good luck and get ready for a big weekend!
Overall Record (94-105-4) -17.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (3-2) 4 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (9-4-1) 18 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (14-12-2) 1.8 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (35-44) -26.8 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (33-43-1) -14.4 Units
Total Unit Based Record (196-212.3-1.1) -17.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (47.87%)
Way off on the Under in Thursday's game. Today, I have one 4 Unit Pick. My system has the New Mexico State capped at Nevada -6.5. Take the points and watch for New Mexico State to keep this game close. In fact, my system gives them a 17% chance of winning this game. Either way, 15.5 points is too many. Aside from my one 4 Unit pick, today's card is filled with 1 Unit and 2 Unit Picks. Good luck and enjoy the games!
****4 Unit Pick****
New Mexico State +15.5
**2 Unit Picks**
Washington State +34.5
Minnesota +15.5
Tulane +16.5
Rutgers +6.5
Ole Miss +12.5
Kansas +28
Wyoming +18.5
*1 Unit Picks*
NC State +18.5
New Mexico +30.5
Kansas State +13
Navy +22.5
Western Kentucky +6
Memphis +29.5
Colorado +31.5
Thursday, November 3, 2011 and Friday, November 4, 2011
Overall Record (99-115-4) -21.8 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (3-2) 4 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (10-4-1) 22 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (14-12-2) 1.8 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (38-48) -29.6 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (34-49-1) -20 Units
Total Unit Based Record (207-227.7-1.1) -21.8 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (47.50%)
I have three weekday picks on tap. Look for Boston College to keep it close against Florida State on Thursday night. My system has Florida State winning by no more than a touchdown. Also, my system has the USC v. Colorado game capped at USC -10. Take the points in both games and enjoy the action as we gear up for a big weekend. Good luck!
Overall Record (99-118-4) -28.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (3-2) 4 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (10-4-1) 22 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (14-13-2) -1.5 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (38-49) -31.8 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (34-50-1) -21.1 Units
Total Unit Based Record (207-234.3-1.1) -28.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (46.79%)
Wow, 0-3 to start the week. After a horrendous losing streak, my system is ready for a big weekend. This week's hype surrounds the LSU v. Alabama matchup, but there is no value in this line. My system has Alabama winning by the score of 24-20. The best value play on the board is New Mexico at +35. My system has this game capped at San Diego State -25.5 with a total of 56. My system gives New Mexico a near 100% chance of covering this spread. This will not be a fun game to watch, but the value is there. Good luck and enjoy the Week 10 action!
****4 Unit Pick****
New Mexico +35
***3 Unit Pick***
Louisiana Tech +3.5
**2 Unit Picks**
Minnesota +27.5
Indiana +27.5
Louisville +13
Wyoming +19.5
Tulane +26.5
Duke +15.5
Purdue +26
Army +16.5
Northwestern +17.5
Texas A&M +14
Utah +4
Middle Tennessee State +21.5
Kansas State +21
UNLV +42.5
Overall Record (112-123-4) -10.3 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (3-2) 4 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (11-4-1) 26 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (15-13-2) 1.5 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (48-53) -20.6 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (35-51-1) -21.2 Units
Total Unit Based Record (235-244.2-1.1) -10.3 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (48.93%)
Last weekend was fun. Tonight, I have one 2 Unit Pick. My system has the Houston v. Tulane game capped at Houston -21.5 with a total of 68. Take Tulane at +35 and enjoy cheering for the underdog in this matchup. Good luck!
Overall Record (112-124-4) -12.5 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (3-2) 4 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (11-4-1) 26 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (15-13-2) 1.5 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (48-54) -22.8 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (35-51-1) -21.2 Units
Total Unit Based Record (235-246.4-1.1) -12.5 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (48.70%)
With several 3 Unit Picks on tap, Week 11 should be a lot of fun. If you are looking for an "upset", look for Memphis to knock off UAB. My system has this game capped at Memphis -1, so I would encourage you to take Memphis at +5 and watch for an "upset". Also, my system has the LA Tech v. Ole Miss game capped at LA Tech -7 and the Fresno State v. New Mexico State game capped at Fresno State -1.5. Thus, you should look to take LA Tech at -2 and New Mexico State at +7. This sums up Saturday's 3 Unit Picks. Good luck and enjoy the games!
***3 Unit Picks***
Memphis +5
Louisiana Tech -2
New Mexico State +7
**2 Unit Picks**
Rice +16.5
Marshall +19.5
Wake Forest +16.5
Texas Tech +20
Kansas +20.5
TCU +16
Colorado State +13.5
Western Kentucky +42
Mississippi State +17.5
Idaho +22.5
Washington State +11.5
*1 Unit Picks*
Wyoming +16.5
Maryland +20.5
Hawaii +16
Overall Record (123-130-4) -3.7 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (3-2) 4 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (11-4-1) 26 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (17-14-2) 4.2 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (55-58) -17.6 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (37-52-1) -20.3 Units
Total Unit Based Record (257-259.6-1.1) -3.7 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (49.64%)
We are fighting our way back towards even, and I have two picks for tonight that should help us get even closer. The public loves Oklahoma State, but my system has this game capped at Oklahoma State -15 with a total of 62.5. This spread is artificially inflated due to Oklahoma State's recent success and the media attention it has garnered. Take the Cyclones at +27 and enjoy an easy cover as we head into the weekend. Good luck!
Overall Record (124-131-4) -2.8 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (3-2) 4 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (11-4-1) 26 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (17-14-2) 4.2 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (56-58) -15.6 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (37-53-1) -21.4 Units
Total Unit Based Record (259-260.7-1.1) -2.8 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (49.73%)
Tonight was another step in the right direction. Granted it was a baby step, but a positive night is a positive night. On Saturday, I have a couple of 3 Unit Picks. First, I have the Indiana v. Michigan State game capped at Michigan State -17 with a total of 52.5. Second, I have the Tulsa v. UTEP game capped at Tulsa -4 with a total of 55.5. Take the underdogs, Indiana and UTEP, to cover in each of these games. Good luck!
***3 Unit Picks***
Indiana +28
UTEP +14
**2 Unit Picks**
Kentucky +31
Tulane +14
Mississippi State +13
UNLV +24
Ole Miss +30.5
San Diego State +18
New Mexico State +22.5
*1 Unit Picks*
Kansas +31
Texas Tech +18
Colorado State +34
Boston College +24.5
Virginia +17.5
Kansas State +8
USC +14.5
Overall Record (133-138-4) -7.3 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (3-2) 4 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (11-4-1) 26 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (17-16-2) -2.4 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (59-62) -18.4 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (43-54-1) -16.5 Units
Total Unit Based Record (271-277.2-1.1) -7.3 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (49.34%)
Thanks to all those that take the time to read my posts. Best wishes to you and your families. My system has the Texas v. Texas A&M game capped at Texas A&M -2 with at total of 56.5. Thus, you should take the points and watch Texas keep this Rivalry game closer than the "experts" think. Good luck and Happy Thanksgiving!
Overall Record (134-138-4) -6.3 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (3-2) 4 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (11-4-1) 26 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (17-16-2) -2.4 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (59-62) -18.4 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (44-54-1) -15.5 Units
Total Unit Based Record (272-277.2-1.1) -6.3 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (49.43%)
I hope today's games are as entertaining as last night's action. Today, I have two 3 Unit Picks on tap. My system has the Eastern Michigan v. Northern Illinois game capped at Northern Illinois -12.5 with a total of 60.5 and the Akron v. Western Michigan game capped at Western Michigan -21.5 with a total of 56.5. You should take the dogs in both of these games. I know the Arkansas v. LSU game is tempting, but I encourage you to stay away. There is NO VALUE in that line. Good luck and enjoy Black Friday!
***3 Unit Picks***
Eastern Michigan +18
Akron +27.5
Overall Record (136-140-4) -6.7 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (3-2) 4 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (11-4-1) 26 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (18-17-2) -2.7 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (59-62) -18.4 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (45-55-1) -15.6 Units
Total Unit Based Record (276-281.6-1.1) -6.7 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (49.40%)
This week's lines are tight, but there is some serious value in several of the lines. In fact, I have one 5 Unit Pick on tap. My system has the UL Lafayette v. Arizona game capped at UL Lafayette -6 with a total of 63. My system gives UL Lafayette a near 100% chance of covering and an 86% chance of winning the game. Thus, you should take the 13.5 point dog and enjoy the potential UPSET! Good luck!
*****5 Unit Pick*****
UL Lafayette +13.5
****4 Unit Pick****
Oregon State +27.5
**3 Unit Pick***
UCLA +16
**2 Unit Pick**
New Mexico State +21.5
San Jose State +6.5
*1 Unit Picks*
Iowa State +28.5
Wyoming +34.5
Kansas +25.5
Memphis +36.5
Ole Miss +17
Texas Tech +13.5
Overall Record (141-146-4) -9.9 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (4-2) 9 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (11-5-1) 21.6 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (18-18-2) -6 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (60-63) -18.6 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (48-58-1) -15.9 Units
Total Unit Based Record (286-294.8-1.1) -9.9 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (49.15%)
Once again, today's lines are tight, but i have six picks as we continue to gear up for a big Bowl Season that is certain to help us end the season in the black. My system has the SEC Championship capped at LSU -7 with a total of 44.5. Take the points and watch Georgia keep this game closer than the experts think as the Bayou Bengals have their minds on January's BCS Championship game. Good luck and enjoy today's action!
***3 Unit Pick***
Georgia +13.5
**2 Unit Picks**
New Mexico State +15
Idaho +19.5
Hawaii +8
Overall Record (143-150-4) -15.7 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (4-2) 9 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (11-5-1) 21.6 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (18-19-2) -9.3 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (61-65) -21 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (49-59-1) -16 Units
Total Unit Based Record (289-303.6-1.1) -15.7 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (48.68%)
My goal is to get back in the black this Bowl Season. My picks for the first week of Bowl Season are posted below. Will TCU and Boise State be upset that they are Bowling before Christmas? My system has both Louisiana Tech and Arizona State keeping it closer than the "experts" predict. As usual the Bowl lines are tight, but we have managed to find some value and are looking to go on a nice run to end the 2011-2012 College Football Season. Good luck and Merry Christmas!
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***The Knuckleballer's 2011-2012 NCAAF Tracking Thread***
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