[ebbearsfb1]

This is going to be only my college football thread. I will also have an NFL thread... My goal is to hopeful make 10k this year. I use a local max bet is only 150 with him.. and I will be using Legends sports book..

I've done well with college football in the past. I dont stick to a certain pattern or number of games a week, if i like it i play it..

I like the lesser leagues better like Sun Belt, conf usa. etc.. seems like better value in those games. Any who cant wait for the season to start next week..

Some early thoughts on

win totals, and conference champions


just early looks not plays

South Carolina to win sec +400 good value i think they win the sec east, darkhorse for the national championship, watch out for this team


Pittsburgh to Win Big East +290 will depend on how they take to todd grahams new offensive system, this is another one i think could come down to the game vs wvu in december


Arizona State to Win Pac 10 South have the talent to win the south... will depend on if they get it together


Norte Dame Over 9 wins +130 could be a push i seee 9 wins minimum 3 toss ups (usc, pitt, and stanford most likely an L) 10-2

Arizona Over 6 Wins -105 scary schedule could start 1-4, they have the talent to be bowl eligible, if this went to 5.5 i'd be pumped, but could be worth a small play based on their talent alone


Ohio state over 8.5 even defense will hold this team together looks like 9-3

South Florida Over 8 +150 i think 9-3 is plausible, (losses to nd, wvu maybe) maybe pitt maybe miami florida, another one that at worst pushes

Wisconsin Over 9.5 Even only games i see issue with are nebraska, maybe ohio state

thats 10-2... probably split those 11-1 over rover

Georgia Tech under 6 wins +120 i see minimum 6 loses, probably 7 (NC,nc state, miami, maryland, clemson, va tech, georgia

Under 6 wins Kentucky + 130 anothe one were i see mini 6 loses ( florida, lsu, ville, south carolina, miss state, georgia)

[TheGambler]

What was your college record last year?

[ebbearsfb1]

What was your college record last year?

good question couldnt tell ya..cause i combined nfl and college last year ... whatever it was it wont help us this year

more worried about the money amount.anyway ..ended up like 5 k or so,, did lousy in bowl games...

[Dexter]

nice - looking forward to the season. will come check out your NFL as well. you're obviously well informed on the sport so i will def stop by often for insight

[LolsMcwinsey]

Def will be checkin this out. Bol

[ebbearsfb1]

Thanks gentlemen, let's keep it clean in here.. anyone with added insight feel free to add it here.. bol

[ebbearsfb1]

very early leans

Mississippi state -26.5 very underrated team, memphis issues at qb, they were awful last year, cant see them being improved... its a lot to lay on the road in week 1, but if i can get it under 4 tds, think this gets ugly.

Under 49.5 cuse/wake forest, have hard time seeing these teams both getting in to the 20's, and it wont be a blow out... according to the spread it would be 28-21... cant see it being that high



Under 56 baylor/tcu tcu wants to win early, they are goin to need to win with defense..
should be a very good game, baylor is good offensive, but will be slowed here, if they want to win they better bring the d. and rattle the new tcu qb.

Northwestern +3 was leaning this way till i heard persa still up in there... under could be another option

Miami ohio + 17 new qb for missouri, and miami ohio will be underrated team this year... better than last year, were they hung with florida in the swamp

Stanford -27.5 san jose st. might be worst program in d1.. another one if i can get under 4 tds, andrew luck will start his heisman run here, probably will cover this by the half

Over 52 pitt/buffalo todd graham era begins, points will be scored in bunches here, just see tulsa last year, buffalo defense is trash, only thing that might keep me away is pitt's d is solid, could easily shut them out

South Carolina -20
Over 61 ecu/usc not sure what i like more, south carolina has a big game the follow week vs georgia, so they could over look ecu, but they have the far superior talent, and if the passing aint working the running will be. ecu couldnt stop anyone last year, but can score. but south carolina d should be very good this year.

Northern Illinois -10.5 9-3-1 against the spread last year.. playing army who was much improved last year... niu can pound the rock, i dont think army will be able to keep up scoring with niu...

Fresno state +10 the derek carr era begins vs cal... he supposely is better than his brother, fresno never scaried to play anybody , like them getting 10 points here, could win the game outright

Over 64.5 Tulsa/Oklahoma oklahoma might hit this by themselves.. they need to prove this year that they arent overrated, need to have the pedal to the metal from the first snap, and they have such issues at the linebacker spot, tulsa will get some points here

Boise state -3 like boise here in the national spot light game, they will be ready, georgia has holes on offense.. and they could be looking towards south carolina.. boise needs this more.. if they want to be considered for a title shot later on ... they are plus 900 to win the title, that could also be a play

Oklahoma state -36 oc is gone, blackmon is back, weeden is back, they will sit be running and gunning...
maybe the over could be better, still deciding
also they were 9-3 vs spread last year

Smu +16 a good team, getting 16 points.. yes texas a&m is good, but for smu players, they are going to be amped playing against an instate bcs team. june jones will have them ready, and they will be scoring.. i think they keep it with in the number

Hawaii- 7 11-2 vs spread last year. a trip to the island for colorado... would like to get this at 6.5 but will wait and see... colorado moving to the pac 12 doesnt make them a better team..




those are just leans, things could change until then, please feel free to leave an opinion or question about other games i could take a look at, maybe i missed something

most likely will cut that list down... but the first 3 games are on thur. and friday

and games are through out the day sat..

[ebbearsfb1]

2 more that most likely will be plays... fading the situations

oregon vs. lsu... oregon will be able to score on lsu, and who knows whats going on with the lsu program.. oregon still has a sour taste from the title game, and how sec d held them to 19 points... as good as lsu d is year to year, they can be scored on..

maryland vs. miami.. another program with issues... randy edsall will have maryland ready... like them getting points... think they could win outright... cause who knows how many guys will be out for miami, i know harris is... but who else

[ebbearsfb1]

Looks like russell sheppard will be out for lsu.. gotta figure jefferson is out also.. maybe the under for this game... still time to figure it out

[Dexter]

post #7 is great...good stuff.

[ExperienceWins]

LSU was 10-2 last year with horrendus QB play. Losing Jefferson won't hurt them unless it's mentally. LSU's d will be better than Auburns was last year. Be careful on that one. Oregon won't score as much as their accustom to. I expect the same type of game you saw against Auburn.

[GoBlue23]

Love Mississippi St. in this spot. Underrated as I think they still are perceived as the MSU of old under Croom. Mullen is an offensive coach, and they can and will put up points. The defense is still solid too. 16 returning starters (9 offense, 7 defense)...anything under 4 tds is a strong play IMO. Good Luck.

[miketp223]

Hawaiis got like 2 returning starters on offense and plus colorado beat them last year. Northern Illinois has 2 returning starters on defense so army should be able to score more. Just some tidbits

[ebbearsfb1]

Few things about hawaii.. when they played colorado, they had just come off. Game vs. Army, which was a 6am start for them, and they never traveled back to hawaii, the game was a 930 am start time for them... that's a tough 2 week road trip traveling acrosss 3 time zones...little bit different when someone travels to the island

[ebbearsfb1]

Hawaii game and ni u game could be both overs instead, and lsu could be an under.... plenty of time and reviewing

[ebbearsfb1]

Where did you get those number? Niu has 5 guys back on d... and hawaii the line could be an issue but qb is back and they can sling it... colorado lost both cbs to the nfl

[Vin_vermillion]

you guys are nuts to take MSU. good luck with that....

[GoBlue23]

you guys are nuts to take MSU. good luck with that....

[ebbearsfb1]

Not sure how they will be improved? Just cause the game is home? Memphis couldn't stop the run or pass last year...what makes this year any different? Dan mullens has mississippi state ready for openers... and first game of year plenty of time to prep.. just look what they did to mich last year

[Vin_vermillion]

Ebbs - not trying to be a jerk when I ask this....but How are you going to get to 10K? You would have to hit a very high % to get to it or bet a ton of games at $150 max bet....

What % do you think you will hit?

I bet 100 to 500 a game, and I am only hoping to make about 5K on CFB. And that is with 65% winners

[Vin_vermillion]

I mean, dont get me wrong - it's possible, but you must be betting like 10 games for CFB and 10 for NFL in a weekend? Is that about right?

[ebbearsfb1]

Well to start off games will be between 100 and 150.. that's only with the local, on legends games will be higher.. also will have parlays when we get into itt

[Vin_vermillion]

Well to start off games will be between 100 and 150.. that's only with the local, on legends games will be higher.. also will have parlays when we get into itt

OH i GOT YA. i MISSED THAT YOU WERE PLAYING ONLINE AS WELL

[ebbearsfb1]

Good luck this year to everyone.. if ur gonna tail see if u can get a book with 13 point teaser options...leaning under tomorrow cuse/wake wanna see the line I can get... I'm on vac for afew more days ... so forgiving me for not keeping it as organized right a way

[Ingram$]

you guys are nuts to take MSU. good luck with that....

What's your insight to say that?

[Ingram$]

I mean, dont get me wrong - it's possible, but you must be betting like 10 games for CFB and 10 for NFL in a weekend? Is that about right?

spot it and agree

[ebbearsfb1]

Over 56.5 wisconsin/unlv risk 165 to win 150

[TEXAS MICKEY]

EBear,

Good Luck on the 2011 CFB season. Will be looking in and checking.

TM

[ebbearsfb1]

Should of took msu lol... too bad local puts lines out late, usually gives better dog lines... wku plus 17.5 165 to win 150

[ebbearsfb1]

Nice cashing in the 3rd quarter.. hopefully wku can score seems like they are moving it a bit

[Love The Action]

Good luck Ebbs...good stuff in here

Nice cash with the Wisky over

[ebbearsfb1]

2 and 0.. up 300.. good start

[Hawk007]

Looking forward to your picks this year. Seems like you have quite a grasp on this NCAAF. Missed your winners tonight but I think you'll have plenty more where that came from.

[Dexter]

Nice cashing in the 3rd quarter.. hopefully wku can score seems like they are moving it a bit

great start - what made you play western kentucky?

[ebbearsfb1]

Thanks dex, a combo of rlm, and just a hunch that uk would be lousy on offense with a new qb and losing its top 2 play makers... I would have more of a write up but I'm on vacation till tomorrow.. so for now just posting the plays.... local didn't send out lines for tonight yet though