1. #1
    Henry
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    Here Is Why I Will Be On Cmu!!

    There is no doubt that BS is a force to be reckoned with, and I won’t rummage into all their strengths. Having said that I will look deeper in the home underdog. Here are some factors I found scouring the net.


    1) POINTS THAT GAMES HAVE BEEN DECEIDED BY.

    Three points or less, with the Chippewas going 5-0 in those games this season has decided five of CMU’S 10 games. Since the start of the 2006 season, CMU is 12-6 in 18 appearances on the ESPN networks. CMU linebacker Nick Bellore leads the conference in tackles and is ninth nationally with 10.7 per game.

    Of the 40 conference games played in 2008, 20 have been decided by seven points or less, with 15 of those 40 by four points or fewer in the final margin.


    2) QUARTERBACKS.

    BS brings the MAC leader in passing efficiency in quarterback Nate Davis. In a statistical fluke, three of the top quarterbacks in the MAC are featured in this game with Davis, CMU backup Brian Brunner and starter Dan LeFevour. So if LeFevour should somehow go down, I have a more than capable Brunner as a replacement.

    Although Ball State brings in the leading rusher in the conference in MiQuale Lewis, CMU’S LeFevour is such a good runner that it's difficult to contain him. He's the eighth-leading rusher in the MAC, topping 100 yards three times this season


    3) CMU PASS DEFENSE.

    Central Michigan ranks dead last in the MAC in pass defense, giving up 273.7 yards a game. Western Michigan riddled the Chippewas for 471 yards through the air, and Ohio passed for 365. The Cardinals would like to do the same, but there is one element that could be the great equalizer. The weather in Mt. Pleasant will not be so pleasant. It will be freezing cold with wind gusts.


    4) Taking Care of the Football.

    CMU’S eight turnovers are tied with Oklahoma for the fewest of any Bowl Subdivision team in the country. The Chippewas’ three fumbles lost are tied for the third fewest nationally.


    5) Home Field Advantage.

    Kelly/Shorts Stadium began hosting CMU football games in 1972. Since then, the Chippewas have posted a 137-54-4 record (.713 winning percentage) at home. CMU is 4-0 at home this season, and a win against Ball State would complete the Chippewas’ first unbeaten home slate since the 1998 Chippewas also were 5-0 at home.


    5) Third Downs Conversions.

    CMU is 40-of-65 on third down over its last four games, an efficiency rate of 61.5 percent. The Chippewas were 10-for-15 on third down against Western Michigan, 10-for-16 at Toledo, 11-for-19 at Indiana and 9-for-15 at Northern Illinois. During the season’s first six games, CMU was 36-for-88 (41.0 percent) on third down.


    6) CMU’S Defensive Line.

    CMU’S defensive linemen have accounted for 24 sacks in 2008, more than the team total for any other program in the Mid-American Conference. The Chippewas lead the MAC and rank and rank 17th nationally with 27 sacks as a team.


    So out of that to say to you I will be on the Chip’s tonight +7.

    GL to one and all!!
    Last edited by Henry; 11-19-08 at 12:59 PM. Reason: typo

  2. #2
    robbiemesser
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    Very nice writeup

  3. #3
    Henry
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    Thank you Robbie!

  4. #4
    themajormt
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    I love the write up but you failed to tie in Ball states with this... How does their pass defense rank? What is their record on the road? What is their 3 down % rate?

    I think this is Ball States year... GL!

  5. #5
    spongerat
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    did you just post this on therx too? i swear i've seen this before. very nice writeup regardless. I think I will have to go with BS still though

  6. #6
    Henry
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    Quote Originally Posted by spongerat View Post
    did you just post this on therx too? i swear i've seen this before. very nice writeup regardless. I think I will have to go with BS still though
    Yes!!

    GL tonight!!:

  7. #7
    Rixsaw
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    Nice work Henry. At first glance, I love CMU. I thought 7 pts was way too many. But the more I look at how well BS run their passing game, the more I lean BS. The only thing that worry me is that CMU have been doing a good job at keeping the game close to win. BOL to yah...I'll most likely be on BS and over. Might add a teaser for insurance because I think BS will win SU.

  8. #8
    guru-t
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    FG either way but I think its the CHIPS!!GLuck

  9. #9
    Henry
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rixsaw View Post
    Nice work Henry. At first glance, I love CMU. I thought 7 pts was way too many. But the more I look at how well BS run their passing game, the more I lean BS. The only thing that worry me is that CMU have been doing a good job at keeping the game close to win. BOL to yah...I'll most likely be on BS and over. Might add a teaser for insurance because I think BS will win SU.
    Rix,

    Thanks for your response. I especially like reason #5. I believe the home field advantage is close to 5 points.

    Gl on your bets!!

  10. #10
    Henry
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    Would like to add one more thing.

    In looking at their games this year the Chips will fight you to the very last second. I love that in a team when I'm getting the points.

  11. #11
    Dbldown11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Henry View Post
    In looking at their games this year the Chips will fight you to the very last second. I love that in a team when I'm getting the points.
    I dont disagree...however you have to be careful and look at the teams they are playing close with.

    Ball St. has won EVERY single game by double digits. That includes wins vs. NIU @ Indiana and vs. Navy (only games worth mentioning as the other teams all blow).

    Central Mich. on the other hand has played a schedule just as poor as Ball St. but they havnt won a single Div. I game by more than 10 and their average margin of victory is 4.57.

    To me that means that Ball St. is far more explosive, and much better at putting teams away which is exactly what I think they'll do here. Central Michigan is a good team, but I think you will see their offense get shut out today (like it did in the 2nd half last week) and Ball St. will not have much trouble scoring at all.

    Ball St. is 10 for 10 with victories in double digit figures...expect that to continue tonight.

    As a side note I told myself I wouldnt bet this game....but after looking at it more I'm going to bet Ball St. Damn weeknight college football games.

  12. #12
    Beat up the book
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    As i said last week,aint faden em yet.
    I'm on Ball -6 bought it down from 6.5.
    Everyone but Temple has scored on C mich no problem this year.Ball st. is
    the better team here on both sides of the ball.Central Mich will score some,but i dont
    think they keep up with Ball.

  13. #13
    dr123
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    Yes doubledown, glad to see your getting on on BS, gonna be looking for you in the thread, lets cash another one baby!

  14. #14
    Mr Handicapable
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    To me that means that Ball St. is far more explosive, and much better at putting teams away which is exactly what I think they'll do here. Central Michigan is a good team, but I think you will see their offense get shut out today (like it did in the 2nd half last week) and Ball St. will not have much trouble scoring at all.


    Ball State will shut them out CM only hung 58 on them last year!! CM is 21-2 SU in the MAC in the last 3 years! They've already faced Georgia and W. Michigan which are much better offenses than BS has seen this season! I think it will be a close game...fairly high scoring and CM +7 will cover! I've already played Over 54.5 and parlayed CM!! BS will miss Dante Love tonite...he was the best WR in the MAC!!

  15. #15
    guru-t
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    Thats my read as wellMRHCBL!

  16. #16
    Dbldown11
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    mr. handicapable:

    Before you mock my posts please use your brain for your own.....

    "Theyve already faced Georgia and W. Michigan which are much better offenses than BS has seen this season!"

    Thanks for pointing that out. Ball St. has a better offense than either of those teams, and Georgia scored 56 on them and Western Mich. scored 28......So whate exactly is your point???I'm extremely confused. Central Mich has a good record in the MAC. I've got news for you the MAC kinda blows, and they havnt faced a team this good in the last 3 years.

    How bout this stat from THIS YEAR (which is really all that matters) Ball St. has played 10 games, and they've won ALL 10 BY DOUBLE DIGITS!

  17. #17
    Dbldown11
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    and i meant to say theyd get shut down, not shut out. obviously they will score some

  18. #18
    BamaBill67
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    DD,

    Do you like the over or under?

  19. #19
    Mr Handicapable
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    I'm a Hoosier so I root for Ball State but at the same time I've really grown to love CM for all the money they've made for me over the last few years. They're CONSISTENT which is crucial to every pointspread bettor!! 21-2 SU vs the MAC and 12-2 Over as a dog in the last 3 yrs!! CM & Rice will go Over damn near everytime in these spots!
    I went huge when the total for Rice/Army dropped all the way down to 54 (38-31)! Its going to be cold tonite but I'm big on 54.5 to crumble as well!! As far as the side goes....can't see giving the defending conf. champ a full TD at home...21-2 SU like I said but maybe Ball State is that good?? Should be a fun one and I have to get my kids off my a$$ so I can watch it!!

    GL!!

  20. #20
    teaserpleaser
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    This WOULD BE the highest ranked team CMU ever beat (or so the CMU homers at 1340 am just said) ... Ball state should win... on a side note is there anybody here who thinks this thing is under 28 first half, I already played the over 28 big, somebody on here has to have the under.

  21. #21
    Dbldown11
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    i dont do totals normally, but I have a small lean towards the under in this game

  22. #22
    Mr Handicapable
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    12-2 Over for CM as a dog last 3 years
    29-5 Over for Rice in the last 3 yrs

    You won't find streaks like that ATS on the sides!! I've always done better w/totals but maybe thats just me??

  23. #23
    Rixsaw
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    Here is an interesting stat I found on ESPN.com

    "Ball State takes aim at school history Wednesday when it tries for a record 11th victory. It'll be a formidable task for the Cardinals, as they visit Central Michigan with first place in the MAC West on the line. The Chippewas are 1-8 all-time versus Top 25 teams."

    I'm not much in to historical stats. I only look at this year stats. For what it's worth, I don't think BS is worthy of being in the rank. But who would have thought TechTech can beat Texas SU?

  24. #24
    mmike032
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    surprised the home dog weeknight angle hasnt come up yet, I think this is about the 2nd time I will be on the homedog weeknight game. been burnt many times this year b/c of this bogus trend. however its just icing on the cake tonight.

  25. #25
    Henry
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    Just kissed my Sister.

    With two missed field goals!!

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