Another solid week last week (4-1), brings 2 week total since i started posting here to 8-2... good luck this week
03:45PM 107 Navy Midshipmen-#4
Saturday 09/27/2008 108 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 16
Wake has been the beneficiary of 15 Turnovers thus far this year that has gone a long way towards then averaging nearly 28 ppg despite averaging only 338 ypg (only 4.5 ypg). We’ve been on record as being pretty big fans of Navy’s offense this year but have continually had to pass on games because of their horrible pass defense (who are now allowing 8.4 ypa). This week likes a good spot to back a still under-rated Navy team, even after their upset victory over an obviously overrated Rutgers team last week. Wake’s passing offense is ok, but certainly not great (averaging 6.5 ypa and 235 ypg in the air this season), and it looks like the 5 TO/game average for Wake thus far has inflated the line value here as our math only projects 362 yards offense for Wake (including 8.2 ypa so it’s not like we are missing the boat on Wake having a better than average day passing).
Navy got a pretty tough test last week with Rutger’s rush D, and should get a better test here this week as Wake is very good defending the rush (allowing 3.7 ypr to teams that average 5.4 ypr). Still no one’s held Navy to under 200 yards rushing, and I don’t see a Wake team that hasn’t faced a legitimate rushing threat yet doing so here. My math projects 220 ypg on the ground (4.5 ypr), which is a 2.0 ypr discount under what Navy is averaging this year, so I think this is more than conservative. Navy will average their 10 or so passes and end up somewhere around the 320-350 yards total offense.
Assuming Wake is the continued beneficiary of a +5 TO margin my projected scoring for Wake is approximately 34-20 given the same or slightly adjusted total offense production (it is sort of complicated but depending on if they are point erasing TOs for Navy…i.e. deep in scoring territory or point creating TOs for Wake…i.e. Navy TOs deep in their territory, you either get more yardage and a lower pts/yardage ratio for Navy or more points and a higher pts / yardage ratio for Wake) with about a 50-100 yard advantage for Wake in total offense. Assuming a more normalized distribution of TOs in this game my projections are for 360-315 total offense advantage for Wake (5.6-5.2 yppl) and a 29-23 projected score. Three of my 4 models are all dead on with 34 points for Wake, but those models are run largely on pure statistical analysis w/o any adjustments for intangibles so that is not that surprising. That is further validated by the fact two of those 3 have a similar yardage projection as mine (315-360 yards but 34 points). All of my models and math are pretty consistent with Navy in the 21-26 point range, so even worse case we seem to have a squeaker to solid line value.
I’ll call for Wake to fall a bit back to earth, presuming Navy doesn’t fork the ball over 3-5 times. Navy 24 Wake 31. Navy is a #4 recommended play at +16
I’ll go right back to the well on a very good, but still underrated Cincinnati team that gets a horrible Akron defense this week. Save Army last week (which coincidently is one of the worst offenses in college football), Akron is allowing 440 ypg (6.1 yppl) and 37 ppg (one of those included Syracuse, who stills scored 28 points). People have got it done on the air and ground basically doing whatever it is they do best. Akron should struggle even more this week, particularly on the ground (where they are already allowing 5.0 ypr) as both their starting DT and NG are slated to be out; ignoring those injuries I still project 5.0 ypr for Cincy. Cincy has been very good in the air this season (averaging 8.1 ypa) and should shred an Akron D that is allowing 7.2 ypa this season. My math projects 450 yards offense split pretty evenly (210-230 rush / pass) at 6.2 yppl. My projected scoring range is 36-38 points, and with all my models spread from 34 – 40 I feel pretty good about projecting a big day for the Cincy offense.
Cincy’s defense is still a little unproven with only 1 real game of discernable data, allowing 370 yards and 20 pts to Mi(oh) last week. Still statistically it has been pretty good, allowing only 5.4 yppl (+0.4 yppl), and my guess is they’ll have enough to keep a mediocre Akron offense in check (+0.2 yppl), that absent a pretty bad Syracuse defense hasn’t posted more than 24 in a game. My math projects 5.7 yppl and 380 yards which is right in line with Akron’s average this season (380 & 5.9 yppl). My math calls for 26 pts, which is right at Akron’s average this season and what Cincy is allowing, so that seem pretty fair and consistent with a 370 +/- yard day (although slightly on the high side). Our models are all right around the 21-26 point range for Akron which supports my projections.
All in all I think there is just too much offense for a very poor Akron D to keep this thing in reach for their ok, but not great offense. I think all the upside here is with Cincy, and will back them here even though there are a couple low indicators that show a 7-8 point Cincy victory.
Cincinnati 37 Akron 22 – Cincy is a #4 recommended play at -10.5
UCLA is horrible on offense where they are averaging 2.0 ypr, 241 ypg, and 3.8 yppl and gets a Fresno defense that while not as good as the Arizona D is certainly good enough to keep UCLA from doing much this game (Fresno is still better than average in every statistical category). UCLA is at a situational disadvantage of 1.0 ypr and 0.7 yppl, and my projections call for 2.4 ypr, 4.3 yppl, and barely 300 yards offense (which is even that high because of a projected 40+ pass atts), my math projection calls for a scoring range of 8-17 points, and my models are all pretty consistent with UCLA at 18-20 points, which appears on the high side given what UCLA has done since it’s opening day game. Also, both UCLAs 2 deep RBs (Deane and Bell) are banged up with ankle problems, so I can foresee a similar scenario as the last 2 weeks repeating itself with little to no scoring opportunities for UCLA (239 & 196 total offense the last 2 weeks).
Fresno has been very good on offense this year (averaging nearly 400 ypg and 29 ppg at 6.1 yppl), and has been deadly in the air averaging +1.2 ypa this season (8.6 ypa), and I like our chances vs a UCLA defense allowing 409 ypg and 38 ppg (although that is skewed some by the fact they have played some very good offenses that are averaging 430 and 36 ppg). Bottom line is UCLA hasn’t stopped anyone yet this year, and Fresno owns a situational statistical advantage in every offensive category. My math calls for 6.3 yppl and 430 yards (165-265 run/pass mix) and 36 points, which given all the above is pretty much what I would expect. My models are all in the 32-36 point range, and the only thing that scares me is a lone low abberition of 29 points. Even at that we still have a worse case 29-20 game, but dismissing that low, I have an 80% model projection of 32/34 – 18 type score.
Fresno 33 UCLA 17 – Fresno is a #2 recommended play at -7
12:00PM 165 Kent State Golden Flashes
Saturday 09/27/2008 166 Ball State Cardinals - #3 18.5
Mr. Everything Ball State Dante Lewis being out I think has created a little line value here, as even without him I can’t see where Ball State shouldn’t be a 20+ point favorite at home vs a terrible Kent defense fresh off allowing 667 yards and 44 points to a pretty bad UL-L team (which coincidently is over double what we projected for ULL last week – we had 303-323 yards total offense for ULL last week). ULL is a pretty bad team offensively as going into that game last week they were only averaging 340 ypg (5.0 yppl at -0.6 yppl). Also, it’s not like that was a one time occurrence for Kent, as they are now nearly 1 yard worse per rush, pass, and play this season (allowing 430 ypg and 6.1 yppl to bad offenses that would only average 370 and 5.4). They get a sick Ball State offense averaging 41 ppg, 482 ypg, and 7.4 y ppl…including over 5 ypr and 10 ypa this season). Ball State has over a 3.0 ypa advantage in the air, and a 2.2 yppl advantage. My math calls for 7.8 yppl and 546 yards total offense as well as 45 points. All of my models are between 41-49 points, so I feel pretty good with my projections for Ball State.
Even with out Dante Lewis last week, ball State still scored 42 points and racked up 460 yards last week vs a pretty good Indiana defense, so while his injury will hurt them sometime this season, I can’t see where it will make a material difference this game.
Kent has been about average this year offensively (5.6 yppl and 365 ypg) and statistically dead even in ypr, ypa, and yppl. Ball St has been pretty good defensively (allowing 5.5 yppl to teams that would average 6.0 yppl, +0.5 yppl), and even better defending the pass (+0.9 yppl), and give what Ball State projects to do offensively it doesn’t look like Kent is set up with the situational advantage needed in the air to keep up here. Kent has been pretty good on the ground, averaging 4.9 ypr (although to bad rushing defenses allowing 4.9 ypr), but Ball State has shown some susceptibility on the ground also (allowing 4.9 ypr to good rushing teams averaging 5.2 ypr), and my projections call for 4.7 and 190 on the ground for Kent. Still with 40+ for Ball State grinding it out 4 yards at a time isn’t going to do much other than keep this from getting completely out of control. My math calls for 14-17 points for kent and about 350 yards total offense (5.2 yppl), and our models have 16-20 for Kent. I don’t mind laying the big number in a game in which Ball St looks to gain more ypr than Kent does yppl and Ball State looks to throw for twice as many ypa (11.0) than Kent does yppl (5.2).
Ball State 46 Kent 18 – Ball State is a #3 recommended play at -18
07:30PM 167 South Florida Bulls - #3 10.0
Saturday 09/27/2008 168 NC State Wolfpack
This is an interesting match up as the reason we like USF this week is the same reason we don’t like NCSU this week, as they are in the complete opposite situation as last week. Last week USF looked very flat after an emotional win vs Kansas the week before, and I look for a much more spirited performance this week vs an NCSU team in a near identical situation to what USF was in last week (when they beat FIU 17-9 as a 27 point favorite). NCSU will struggle to match the emotional intensity of last week after their victory over ECU as a home dog in a game in which we indicated ECU might be in trouble. Here we get to back by far the better team, which doesn’t have its stats inflated by some victories over over-rated teams (see ECU last week), and get them fresh off a disappointed victory and vs a team fresh off a huge emotional victory…check please.
The situation aside, there is overwhelming statistical and mathematical support for the Bulls. USFs rush D has been unreal this year allowing 2.4 ypr and 67 ypg on the ground, and gets a very bad NCSU rush offense averaging 3.0 ypr and 108 ypg including a total of 67 yards rushing vs William & Mary…yep, The William and Mary of Williamsburg, VA…I mean are you kidding me, they barely field a football team. My math projects 72 yards rushing at 2.4 ypr so I don’t see NCSU having any success on the ground. NCSU is averaging a paltry 4.3 yppl this season (including only 5.3 ypa), and without any success on the ground have no chance to move the ball vs a USF defense allowing 236 ypg (3.9 yppl and 5.3 ypa). My math call for 250 yppl and 4.0 yppl…bottom line is vs South Carolina and Clemson (both similar defenses) NCSU scored a combined 9 pts, and honestly I don’t see them doing much more here. My scoring projections based on NCSUs season statistics project 15-18 points, but that is skewed by 30 & 34 points vs William & Mary and ECU which still aren’t supported by their offensive production where they averaged 350 ypg in those 2 games). Because they’ve only played 4 games those anomalies account for 50% of their data. Eliminating the D1AA game and adjusting the ECU game to a more normal points/ yardage ratio (24-28) and my projections drop to 7-13 points for NCSU. USF is allowing 18 ppg, so considering all the abstract adjustments, I think a realistic score for NCSU is 10-14 points, but I’ll hedge on the high side with 17.
USF, excepting last weeks performance, has been disgusting on offense averaging 494 ypg and 41 ppg, and while one of those games was vs 1AA UT-Martin the other 2 have been vs pretty good to at least comparable defenses to NCSU (Kansas and UCF). USF should have its pick here as to whether it throws or passes as it enjoys nearly a 1.0 ypr and ypa advantage over a NCSU defense allowing 4.7 ypr and a USF offense averaging 8.1 ypa. My math calls for a balanced 200-250 / 450 yard offensive day (6.3 yppl). Using the entire season’s statistics I come up with a projected score of 30-35 points, when I remove last weeks FIU game that juices up to near 500 yards offense and 40 points. My models all support a 33 point day for USF with a scoring range of 31-38 points.
Ignoring the emotional edge outlined above (which all my math does), I think a score of 32-17 +/- is very supportable, throw in the let down for NCSU and sense of urgency for USF and this could get real ugly real quick. We’ll stick with our math,
USF 32 NCSU 17 – USF is a #3 recommended play at -9
I loved the home dog off an embarrassing blow out at home getting the Mich St team fresh off beating the perpetually over-rated Irish. My math has Indiana outgaining MSU, and a coin flip game as far as who wins. My models are all pretty in line with my math (21-24 for MSU), save a high projection for MSU of 31. Indiana should have good success on offense and my math and models all have 370 & 23-28 for Indiana. Thing that kills my play here is that Indiana is likely without 3 of their 4 starting secondary (2 safeties and a corner back) and I want nothing to do with this game considering that in a situation that MSU already had a +0.9 ypa advantage in the air. I won’t pretend to tell you I know enough about IUs 8 deep secondary, but I do think the situations and underlying line value are compelling, and baring a complete meltdown of IUs pass D, give the home team a fighting chance to pull out the upset. For those of you curious, my math called for 26-24 MSU victory, but models had a 80% (basically throw out the high and low which is sort of the opposite of my worse case analysis) model comparison that showed 4 out of 5 IU straight up wins (IU 24/28 – MSU 21/26).
Our models alone are all unbelievably aligned with a Syracuse cover, although none of them with the coverage percentage or line value we like. All 5 models are a progressive 1 point apart with Syracuse projections 16-20 pts. The Pitt analysis is just as tight with a 24-30 spread, although 40% are at 30 and, 40% are at 24 and one in between. The tricky part for me is my math call for Pitt to outgain Syracuse 450-350 which isn’t consistent with a 16/20 – 24/30 game. Pitt has been pretty bad on offense (4.7 yppl), but Syracuse has been worse on defense (6.5 yppl), and while I have a hard time believing Pitt can get to 400 I have as hard a time believing Syracuse can keep anyone under 400. Anyway, I’ll admit something doesn’t add up here, and I don’t think there is much value with Syracuse, which is where my math is, so I’ll pass, but am curious to see how this plays out. Models says 28 -18 Pitt, math would lead you to believe 40-10 type game…this guy isn’t really sure, probably somewhere in between.
08:00PM 177 Idaho Vandals
Saturday 09/27/2008 178 San Diego State Aztecs 11
Almost same thing as above but in reverse, our models all have 38-40 for SDSU and 20-23 for Idaho, all 5 models with tight consistency and great line value. Problem is our math doesn’t support is showing 350-370 offensive production (edge to SDSU), that isn’t even close to a 40 point game for SDSU. Idaho has been run over by everyone (allowing nearly 50 ppg and 500 ypg), but SDSU is barely averaging 17 ppg and 290 ypg so I am not really sure how this plays out…Still early in the season, I’ll error on the side of caution and be an interested observer.
Bad defenses tend to make bad offenses look good, but with math and models that support 20-24 for the road team, you’ll need a really bad D to make the home team cover a DD line here, and while that is what they get I don’t know how you can really support it based on a mediocre at best SDSU offense.
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geekseet plays - wk 5
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