[jillmark]

LAST WEEK
Best Bets (1-1)(-0.30 units)
Strong Plays (2-1)(+1.80 units)
Regular Plays (3-2)(+0.80 units)

Overall (6-4)(+2.30 units)




FOR THE SEASON
Best Bets (3-3)(-0.90 units)
Strong Plays (6-3)(+5.40 units)
Regular Plays (12-10)(+1.00 units)

Overall (21-16)(+5.50 units)





COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK FIVE



Always happy to be in the plus through the first month of the season. No complaints from me. Lets try this again in week five.



Thursday, September 25th

SMU +18 vs. Tulane (regular play)………….Another one of those Thursday night games that I am forcing a little, but only for one unit. Two teams that suck, just one sucks more than the other. No doubt Tulane is the better team, but I think 18 points is a bit much. Tulane should not be this big a favorite over anybody. I could easily be wrong, but I just don’t see Tulane winning by more than two touchdowns.

Oregon St +25 vs. USC (regular play)……………..USC could win this by 50 if they wanted to, but I don’t see how they are going to get up for this game. Any college win on the road is a good win and USC knows they have already won this game. This games means much more to Oregon St who was supposed to be decent this year and has started off poorly. Nice home dog here. The whole world has already given the national title to USC and more than likely it will be then, but there are always some unexpected close games. Not saying this will be close, but will gladly take a home dog and almost four touchdowns.


Friday, September 26th

Louisville -3.5 vs. Connecticut (regular play)………….Lets face it, I am a sucker for these weeknight games. I thought this game when I first saw the line was at Connecticut, but it is not. I think Louisville brings their A-game and wins this one rather easily, or at least by seven.



I will be back sometime on Thursday night with the rest of my picks for the weekend. I have a few pretty solid picks lined up. Back tomorrow.

[jillmark]

Saturday, September 27th

TCU +18 vs. Oklahoma (best bet)……………………I love this game, but so do many others which scares me. The only reason this line is so high is because it is OKLAHOMA. There is no way the Sooners are this many points better than TCU. TCU is a program on the rise, they are ranked and getting a ton of points. This is the over-rated vs. the under-rated. I almost hate calling Oklahoma over-rated, but they are not a great team who is guaranteed to go undefeated. They will have some close calls this year and this just might be one of them. I like this game as much as I have liked a game this year so far. My best bets are only off to a 3-3 start and I am looking to improve that record with lines that are far off like this one.

Mississippi +22.5 vs. Florida (best bet)…………………Another game I love this week. We will call this one an under vs. over rated game too. Once again the line is this high because it is FLORIDA and that is the only reason. Coach Nutt has Ole Miss playing with a winning attitude this year and with a few breaks their record could be better than what it is. I think last weeks loss at home to Vandy is also part of the reason this line is so high. Vandy appears to be having a special year. They were supposed to suck this year. That Vandy win gave us a few extra points in this game. Florida has been known to play down to the level of competition at time as well. Everybody just assumes Florida is going to win every game in blowout fashion behind Tebo. Again, just too many points to give a decent team. I am fully expecting both best bets to come up winners this week.


Virginia Tech +7 vs. Nebraska (strong play)…………….This was just has a low scoring defensive battle written all over it. I know Virginia Tech is down from last year a bit, but anytime you can get a defensive team like Tech and a touchdown, it makes sense to take it. I have a feeling Tech can go into Lincoln and win this game outright. I think it will come down to a field goal in the closing minutes. Nebraska is off to a 3-0 start but they have lost a lot of last years team. I don’t think the Huskers have what it takes to win this game by double digits. Tech will find a way to keep this one close. Special teams are always are big part of Virginia Tech as well. This one feels really solid to me, almost made it a best bet, but I will try and limit my best bets to two a week.

Syracuse +15 vs. Pittsburgh (strong play)………………There is no reason to take Syracuse in this game at all, they are horrible. Wait…I found a reason and he is called coach Dave. Don’t let last weeks win vs. Iowa fool you. Pitt and coach Dave is famous for giving you hope and then pulling the rug out from under you. Trust me, I know as a Pitt fan and a Miami Dolphin fan. I have never seen a coach get as little out of a team which such talent like coach Dave has. Every year is going “to finally be the year” Same Pitt team, same Pitt coach, same group of talented players who will walk off the field playing much worse than they should have. It would not even shock me to see Syracuse win this game. Call me crazy now, but we have all seen it before.


The rest of my plays are (regular plays) for just one unit with a shorter write-up. A little short on time this week.



W Michigan -4 vs. Temple……………..W Michigan has owned Temple and this was probably the year where Temple had the best chance to beat them until their QB got hurt.



Northwestern +9 vs. Iowa……………Iowa just one of those teams I don’t trust as a favorite. Northwestern is 4-0 and has enough confidence coming into this game to cover more than a TD.



Alabama +7 vs. Georgia……………This one just a gut feeling. I think Bama matches up well with Georgia and it will be a tight game. Georgia always loses a game at home they are not supposed to. This one might be it. Remember when Bama went into Clemson and came away with the win. It could happen again.




Minnesota +17 vs. Ohio State……………Something just does not feel right about Ohio State this year. I know they are clearly the better team, but at 4-0 Minny might hang with a team that might be down after last weeks thumping.





A couple of others I thought about, but I think I might have played too many already. Good Luck Everybody!!