Originally Posted by
Ladle
Finally getting round to posting these. Good luck, everyone.
UFC 129 Plays
10 units on Lyoto Machida by TKO or decision at -140 to win 7.14 units
Hedged with...
1.93 units on Randy Couture by decision at +518 to win 10 units
In conjunction with...
0.5 units on Lyoto Machida wins SUB of the Night at +1450 to win 7.3 units
Machida has a profound ability to jump in and out with clean, hard, accurate strikes that other fighters at the top of the division simply don't have. Unfortunately for Couture, his upper body movement and stand-up skills aren't anywhere near good enough to counteract that. Also, most of the guys who have hurt Randy standing have exploited the holes in his striking defense and hit him on the counter. When you're fighting someone who specializes in parrying and countering, that's a real problem. Compound that with the fact that Couture's chin can't hold up to punishment anymore, and I think the most likely outcome is a swift knockout.
Obviously I concede that there's a possibility Randy will be able to bring the fight to where he's strongest, but I don't think he'll be able to sustain any kind of control. The important thing to remember is that there's not a huge disparity in clinch ability in this fight. In fact, Machida has had so much success against physically larger guys at 205 because of his clinch skills. Not only is he surprisingly strong from that position, he's also incredibly fluid. I'm not saying Machida will have an advantage in the clinch, but Couture isn't going to be able to manhandle him like he has done with other opponents. Furthermore, if Randy is able to secure a takedown, is it realistic to assume that he's going to be able to hold Machida down? Is Couture going to inflict any notable damage from guard? I don't think so.
With all of that said, you're probably wondering why I even bothered hedging with Couture by decision. Three reasons: 1) MMA judging absolutely sucks and Machida's style of fighting isn't conducive to winning decisions. 2) Couture is still legitimately good at what he does, and in spite of all the criticism I throw at him, he's proven me wrong before. 3) I honestly believe that Couture can't win this fight any other way than decision. The decent odds on offer meant that I could use it as a hedge for a fairly small cost, but achieve almost absolute security in the process.
If Machida ends up submitting Couture (which is decidedly unlikely, but possible), I have my play on Machida wins SotN to cover myself somewhat. Although there's plenty of potential for submission finishes on this card, I feel pretty confident that they'd give the reward to Machida (at least as a co-winner) on the basis that it would be the submission which essentially retired Couture.
10 units on Jason Brilz at +110 to win 11 units
Hedged with...
4.8 units on Vladimir Matyushenko by decision at +208 to win 10 units
I've made my thoughts known about this fight numerous times over the past few weeks. Wrestling-wise, they're fairly evenly matched, but I feel that Brilz is better on the ground. In my opinion, he's more submission-savvy and he's got a craftier, more robust top game. Also, as we saw in the Rogerio Nogueira fight, he's decent off of his back; he showed good hips and was very difficult to hold down and control. Matyushenko has professed that he wants to keep this fight standing, but I'm not sure he even has an advantage in the stand-up; Brilz out-boxed Eliot Marshall (and was subsequently robbed by the judges), whereas Matyushenko had to use his wrestling to get the edge over Marshall in their fight.
It'll probably be a fairly close contest, but Brilz has the deeper toolbox in my opinion. If the fight mostly stays standing, I think Brilz can eek out an ugly decision. If Brilz can take Matyushenko down, I think he can use his staunch top game to keep him there and do some damage. If Matyushenko can take Brilz down (though he said that wasn't his plan), I'm confident Brilz has the hips to get back up to his feet.
The decision to hedge with Matyushenko by decision was three-fold. Firstly, even though I favour Brilz, this is still likely to be a close fight. That leads me into my second reason: close fights are very susceptible to poor scoring, and Brilz has a history of getting the short end of the stick in decisions. Thirdly, I don't believe Matyushenko can finish Brilz. Vlad isn't a particularly powerful puncher and his ground and pound isn't anything to write home about unless you're Alexandre Ferreira.
0.05 units on Jason Brilz wins SUB of the Night +3800 to win 1.9 units
Good odds and Brilz has been working on his submissions. 'Nuff said.
10 units on Nate Diaz at +108 to win 10.8 units
Hedged with...
1.82 units on Rory MacDonald by decision at +550 to win 10 units
While I favour Diaz slightly in this fight, this is a hedge which I really wish I could have played the other way around. Unfortunately, bet limits on Paddy Power prevented me from putting much money on MacDonald by decision. Pretty tragic, because +550 is an absolutely gorgeous line.
While MacDonald is ostensibly a great prospect, I'm skeptical about how his top game is going to match up against Diaz's bottom game. Diaz has a mighty slick, mighty quick triangle which has claimed some very high level victims over the years (Alvin Robinson; Kurt Pellegrino), and I'm not sure if MacDonald is a savvy enough grappler to stay out of it. Obviously there's a chance that MacDonald will keep the fight standing, but even then, I'm dubious of how he's going to cope with Diaz's aggression and style of striking.
The one thing I do feel fairly certain of is that MacDonald isn't going to finish Diaz, hence the hedge. Nate is too smart on the ground, and too resilient standing up.
2 units on Claude Patrick at -160 to win 1.26 units
3 units on Claude Patrick at -140 2.14 units
I feel like the bookies are really overlooking Patrick because of Roberts' flashy wins lately. Roberts has always been a decent grappler coming up, and is developing his game with Cesar Gracie, but he's not going to be a title contender. He gassed quite badly against Forrest Petz and his stand-up is extremely rudimentary right now.
As Patrick, I feel like he's better at everything. He demolished Ricardo Funch and made a fairly decent welterweight in James Wilks look pretty much helpless. While Roberts is an obvious step up from those guys, he's been taken down in all of his recent fights, and has only won because he's been facing notably inferior grapplers. Patrick doesn't fit that mould.
With all of that in mind, I see absolutely no reason why Patrick can't be successful with his swanky clinch takedowns. From there, I'm confident that Patrick is defensively sound enough to avoid falling into the same traps that Guymon and Soto did. I think the most likely outcome is a unanimous decision for Patrick, characterised by superior clinch work and positional dominance. Wouldn't be surprised to see him smash Roberts in the stand-up, though.
2 units on Jake Ellenberger at -165 to win 1.22 units
People are wary of betting on Ellenberger because of his last performance, but it's important to remember that Rocha was a pretty nasty style match-up for him. Ellenberger couldn't use his wrestling with any confidence because Rocha is immensely dangerous off of his back, and Ellenberger was hesitant to engage Rocha in the stand-up out of the fear of being taken down himself (which would have probably spelled disaster).
Pierson is a fighter with entirely different dimensions, and in general a much more favourable opponent for Ellenberger. That said, he still represents a few challenges, most notably in the stand-up; I think he's a better technical striker than Jake and that GSP-esque jab of his is probably going to land more than a couple of times. It's for that reason that I think Ellenberger's best course of action - at least while Pierson is fresh - is to take him down. While Pierson is a decent 'rassler himself, I don't think he's good enough to shut down Ellenberger's shots consistently. Considering Pierson slowed down after one round of simply beating up Matt Riddle, I think fighting off of his back and defending the takedown will probably tire him out fairly quickly. Following that, I don't think Ellenberger will have too much trouble maintaining control en route to a decision win, or perhaps a late stoppage.
Finally, getting my Vaughany on. An arb:
20 units on Bocek/Henderson goes the distance at +110 to win 22 units
18.2 units on Bocek/Henderson doesn't go the distance at +110 to win 20 units
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