[lasker]

Second time now I've missed a big parlay by one freakin pick. Second time it was the last pick that screwed me, too. Yes, yes, I did hedge with a bet on Silva right before the fight, but didn't put nearly enough on it.

It hurts, it hurts...

[lasker]

had Fedor by decision covered too...

[kiefynugs]

condolences lasker. would've been an epic parlay without that bet too

[Jordan23]

Oh my God man that freaking sucks!!!!

[Kaladarus]

Wow, your biggest favorite cost you everything. Really sucks, but you were close and since you've been close in the past too I'm sure you will eventually hit one of these.

[sirchadwick1]

Wow. I would have hedged huge to protect that one. Sorry to see that man.
Many of us were on Fedor here and didn't see it coming.

[asdfghasdfgh]

Ouch. I'm sorry man. I came to the MMA subforum to see how people were reacting to the Fedor loss and this is the first thing I see. My condolences.

[Cap dat 4ss]

My sympathies sir. This actually hurts to look at.

[lasker]

Thanks... the most painful loss I've experienced, by far. I got more and more nervous as this fight approached. Sick feeling in my stomach right now.

Fedor is my favorite fighter and I hate to see him go out like this. Still the greatest, I don't care what anyone says.

[Cobra Kai]

Man that's terrible, have you ever won a bet like this before?

[lasker]

Man that's terrible, have you ever won a bet like this before?

sadly, no. second time I missed on the last leg of the parlay, and I've been noticing there's a huge difference between missing by one and not missing by one...

This would have helped me out a lot. Oh well, back to being a poor student.

[Vaughany]

Shit man, that is devastating

[MickChunky]

Damn, that sucks. I hate to see Fedor talk about leaving the sport

[onlooker]

Ouch. Sorry to see that. Keep at them, you will hit one.

[danso]

Wow I need to start following your posts lasker.. It looks like doing MMA prop parlays at 5dimes has a lot of potential. You're due to hit one soon and I hope I'll be on it too!! BOL

[bogbat]

That sucks mate. How many of these types of parlays do you make?

[killawookie]

Did you not have enough funds to hedge yourself? I mean silva was good + dog there near the closing time.

[LLXC]

Yes, yes, I did hedge with a bet on Silva right before the fight, but didn't put nearly enough on it.

You were set to make over 20K if Fedor simply won and you had almost a +300 to bet on...wow you could hedged for a decent amount.

[Poppa Catfish]

You were set to make over 20K if Fedor simply won and you had almost a +300 to bet on...wow you could hedged for a decent amount.

How would that have happened? Would they have sat around and made a decision about how awesome Fedor was after Fedor TKO'd Silva? You can't win both bets bro, not possible.

Sorry to hear that Lasker, but very impressive on how accurate your predictions are.

[lasker]

That sucks mate. How many of these types of parlays do you make?

too many. I don't know the exact number, but almost all had Jones by submission, Mighty Mouse, Fedor, and Franklin/Griffin going the distance. I know that I wagered over $200 on a bunch of $1-$5 parlays from the last UFC event. Of course, Fedor was in all of them . For some reason I had a strong feeling about Jones by submission and wanted to make the most of it, so Jones by submission was the "cash cow" in all of them.

You were set to make over 20K if Fedor simply won and you had almost a +300 to bet on...wow you could hedged for a decent amount.

Fedor can't win both inside the distance and by decision in the same fight. I was set to win either over 10k or over 11k if Fedor won. I netted $2100 from my hedge. Still decent but wish it would have been more. Couldn't do much better as I've had many expenses lately and very little in the bank.


Cobra Kai, I appreciate the points.

[snake11eyes]

That sucks Lasker. It wasn't as much as yours, or as close, but Fedor might have lost me a 9 fight parlay $20 for $2800. After Fedor, I had Fitch and Gsp left. Man I was counting that money with those three left.

[xelance]

wow man....that is insane.

[koscheckbaby]

Im sorry man. I had Bigfoot in some parlays and still wanted to put a bullet in his head with the way he used his huge size advantage to just smother Fedor. It sucks to lose over that shit. At least you hedged.

[urge2kill]

Brutal loss.

[AnthonySoprano]

I had Bigfoot in some parlays and still wanted to put a bullet in his head with the way he used his huge size advantage to just smother Fedor.

Yeah, how dare he focus on his advantages.

[ghost kid]

First of all, I'm very sorry - I've been close like this and it kills me. You're a very solid MMA capper - I've watched your plays. You will hit one of these - keep playing the way you are playing. Play the small numbers for the big payouts.

Now words of advise - and I've learned this the hard way with these long shot parlays.

I had a similar bet like this at UFC 97 - hit 10 out of 11 fights and the final play of the parlay card was Anderson Silva ITD over Leites. Silva won a decision. 40 dollars to pay 12k. Vanished.

I realized after the fact that my easiest hedge would have been +450 for the bout to simply GO THE DISTANCE. That night still pains me to think about - to this day.

You had yourself totally covered on Fedor here, which was fantastic and very smart. **** I would have done EVERYTHING in my power to get down a couple grand on Silva straight.

I'll be the asshole here. A few harsh words but I hope they help in the long run. Coming, honestly, from a place of total respect.

Silva was +375 right before the bout !!!! Netting 2100 on the hedge - ouch. That should have been the AMOUNT PUT DOWN on the hedge brother. You had such a high plus number here, it's just a ******* shame.

As you stated in your post, the reason the payout was so high was the JONES by SUB call at UFC 126. A brilliant call and it set you up for an incredible position. I would have started to figure out my hedge IMMEDIATELY after that event. You had a full week to know that, the SECOND the arlovski fight DID NOT START ROUND 3 you HAD TO THROW DOWN HARD on Silva at the highest plus number you could find !

Shit man, you said you were a student. But at the payout you were expecting I would have spent that entire week getting a 2 grand loan and putting that money into my book JUST IN CASE. I wish you had posted this during the week leading up to Strikeforce. Tons of smart people on here (better cappers than me) that would have SCREAMED at you to hedge. This rips my heart out as a fellow MMA diehard and gambler.

YOU WILL BE IN THIS POSITION AGAIN. You are too solid a capper for it not to happen down the line. Don't force plays, just let it come. And when that opportunity appears, be ready! It's difficult to get down serious money in the middle of a card, I know. Fights are not like other sports. Undercard bouts can end quickly, and before you know it your hedge opportunity is already off the board. BUT YOU HAD A WEEK IN BETWEEN ! The hardest bets already cleared BY FAR.

For THAT type of payout do everything in your power - when you see what is developing. Can't ask for a better hedge than +375. The tough hedges are when you are looking at an even money main event and you want to keep as much profit as possible. +375 is a no brainer - get a couple grand down and rest easy.

Best of luck in the future - don't let this get you down. There is MMA money in your future. Lots. I am 100% positive.

Sorry to sound like a preacher here, but I have tons of experience, and your situation was identical to my UFC 97. The fact that you had a week in between literally RIPS MY GUTS OUT.

[GoldRush7]

just saw this... damn man that is rough. I've had a couple last legs of some hoops parlays kill me so I know how you feel. I had very strong urge to chase after hopefully you don't make the same mistake I do and give into it!

[ghost kid]

just saw this... damn man that is rough. I've had a couple last legs of some hoops parlays kill me so I know how you feel. I had very strong urge to chase after hopefully you don't make the same mistake I do and give into it!

This is extremely good advice.

The natural instinct, when you are that close to a MEGA score, is to try and re-create that opportunity as soon as possible.

DON'T FORCE IT ! Keep rock solid - stick to you're game (which is VERY STRONG). Pace yourself. Use the same instincts. Aim for the long run. Play the same stats. This will take time, but the score will come.

[lasker]

Thanks for your harsh words, ghost kid -- I certainly need to hear them. Your post was very important for me to read.

I do believe I have potential as an MMA capper but I'm still inexperienced, as my poor handling of this situation shows. I'll be honest with you, I wanted to post the parlay when I had 6 of 8 after UFC 126 but -- and this is very very very stupid -- I became superstitious and decided I would manage on my own. I only told one friend, a fellow MMA fan but not a gambler, and we didn't really think it through. Somehow I was convinced I was going to win and didn't put enough thought into when and how much to hedge. Well, I did think about it all week, but I knew I didn't have a lot to hedge with and wasn't thinking of ways around that. My bank account was practically running on empty as I've been living off of a small scholarship and a tutoring job that barely pays my bills. I didn't even think about trying to get a loan or looking for ways to get more money to hedge, but I certainly could have done it. All the stars were finally aligning and it just seemed like my time for a lucky payday. Superstition and gambling are not a good mix.

Your advice is well heeded and I know I won't make this bad of a mistake again. I don't quite share your optimism that I'll be in this situation again, but I hope you're right. It requires some luck, and I did have more than my fair share of luck (up until Fedor's fight...). Maybe I'll be in this situation again but I have to be patient, as it probably won't happen for a long time. But anyway, I won't give up trying. And next time, if it happens, I'll post in these forums ahead of time to seek some advice on the best way to hedge. I've been kicking myself since yesterday. Feel like a complete moron. 10k (or 6-8k from a proper hedge) is not a lot to some people, but to me it would have made a huge difference in my life right now. I was sitting on a goldmine... I just had blind faith that I would win after the hard part of the parlay (from last week) was successful.

Well, the 2k that I did get still help, and I'm not going to be this dumb again. Thanks for the wise advice

[ghost kid]

10K is a LOT of money. No shame in saying that makes a difference. That's big money to 90% of the world.

The amazing thing is the payout was that high from a 3 dollar bet and a 1 dollar bet ! That's pretty incredible. The Jones sub was the REAL kicker. But, you know what? Torres by decision was one hell of a call, too. I know several smart players who thought Torres would rip apart Banuelos and sub him ITD.

The reason I have faith that you can repeat this chance some time down the line - you have a very solid mind for the game. Just taking a quick glance at your picks, Guillard in round 1 over Dunham, Wiman by decision over Cole Miller, Jones by submission over Bader. All EXCELLENT winners - well thought out, for both value and likelihood of occurring.

I totally get the superstitious thing, too. And realistically, all signs pointed to Fedor coming off the loss to Werdum with a burning fire for redemption. But Anderson Silva SHOULD have SMASHED Leites at UFC 97 as well. Sometimes, unfortunately, these parlays get nixed in the most UNLIKELY ways. It makes them all the tougher to swallow. When it's 10K from a dollar bet, throw superstition out the damn window !!!!

It's a rough rough game - keep pounding the pavement. Head up. Cheers.

[bogbat]

Did you bet on jones via sub straight up?

[RaiderNation MMA]

keep up the good work, almost hit it!

[lasker]

Did you bet on jones via sub straight up?

I did, but just $10 on it straight-up. I bet over $200 on Jones by sub in various parlays.

[gym rat]

Just to throw this out there in case it was overlooked. To be completely protected with a hedge you not only would have needed to bet Silva but in addition the draw line. Otherwise, in case of draw you would push on Silva for no gain and lose the parlay. Very unlikely for a draw however they do happen from time to time for the unlikeliest reasons and if you thought this one hurt, imagine hedging only with Silva and losing the parlay from a draw. That would really HURT.

[lasker]

Just to throw this out there in case it was overlooked. To be completely protected with a hedge you not only would have needed to bet Silva but in addition the draw line. Otherwise, in case of draw you would push on Silva for no gain and lose the parlay. Very unlikely for a draw however they do happen from time to time for the unlikeliest reasons and if you thought this one hurt, imagine hedging only with Silva and losing the parlay from a draw. That would really HURT.

thanks, yeah I had thought of it but only put $10 on it, again not nearly enough. I thought that in this tournament format a draw would screw everything up for the promotion and that it was even less likely for this fight than most. Then, when Fedor lost the second round 10-8, I suddenly feared that he would have a miraculous comeback in round 3 and that the judges would score it a 28-28 draw. Could have happened!