Fighters involved in the main event have got FOTN in last three events that had a title fight (UFC 125 FOTN, UFC 124 (allbeit the public voted), WEC 53).
This main event has a good possibility of a TKO/KO finish so taking Belfort and/or Anderson to get KO of the Night makes sense (as you have done). Bare in mind that Dana White decides the Bonus' and he is a big fan of Franklin and in love with Forrest Griffin due to being 'company' guys and TUF, etc... He has also said in an interview earlier that he predicts Franklin/Griffin will be FOTN. With this in mind, I'd say that fight is rightly the favourite for FOTN. My favourites for Submission of the Night are Rocha or Torres.
Was gonna start a thread dedicated to capping the FOTN, but will post here instead...
Going back to UFC 80, there have since been 50 FOTNs awarded (figure does not included Fight Nights or Versus events). 80% (40 of the 50) have been main card fights or televised prelim fights. So I immediately dismiss the non-televised undercard fights unless there is a fight jumping out at me as a potential candidate, and on this card, I don't see one, so the bottom 3 fights are dismissed.
Now, we have the 3 prelim viewable fights, as I'm gonna include the facebook bout...
Kid vs Johnson +350: I'll say limited potential here. Johnson by decision or Kid via being the old Kid; Don't see much back n forth here. Even if there is, at +350, I'm not swayed to bet on this one. Maybe these lil guys put on a show when all is said and done...
Mendes vs Omigawa +450: again, I'm thinking potential grappling display here by Mendes. I like both these cats so maybe they'll surprise, but not anticipating a war. Although, I've got a feeling Omigawa puts up a better fight here then most are expecting, so I'll call this a gut feel darkhorse...
Kelly vs Cerrone +600: Cerrone always brings the fight and Kelly is no slouch himself. Great value here.
Main card fights...
Rocha vs Ellenberger +900: Tempting odds, but I'm anticipating an Ellenberger dominated match, or Danado by sub, and not a great back&forth here. Though if Ellenberger does keep it standing to avoid Danado's guard, maybe there'll be some flurries... +900 is intriguing, I'll admit that.
Banuelos vs Torres +525: Will keep this simple and say, you've got two bantamweights and one of 'em is Torres. So there's some value here.
Bader vs Jones +550: Maybe some potential here, but with the general consensus of another Jones dominant victory (not necessarily my opinion), I'll steer clear of this one. I'd like to see this make FOTN potential as that would likely mean Jones gets tested.
Griffin vs Franklin +375: about where I thought this one would come in odds-wise, as many are considering it to have FOTY potential. Both guys are gamers, so sure, I could be a slugfest. Perhaps worth a bet, but the value has been priced in already. edit: nice points by Vaughany regarding this fight whilst I was composing this... especially regarding Dana's bias. Hell, this could be one of those events where they award 2 FOTNs... it has happened 4 times from 80-125, and given this card's stacked nature, I could see it happening... especially to play to his company guys.
Silva vs Belfort +325: Not seeing any value here, as after a feeling out period, the first strike that lands may end the bout Though I do recall several of those past FOTN awards being biased to title fights... Suppose if there is much back & forth striking, this could win the award, but given that both strikers are fairly devastating, I don't see too many exchanges occurring. And if Vitor utilizes takedowns and turns this into a grappling match, can't see that garnering a FOTN.
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UFC 126 Props
Though I do recall several of those past FOTN awards being biased to title fights... Suppose if there is much back & forth striking, this could win the award, but given that both strikers are fairly devastating, I don't see too many exchanges occurring. And if Vitor utilizes takedowns and turns this into a grappling match, can't see that garnering a FOTN.
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