[terpkeg]

Diaz over Cyborg Inside Distance -173 1.73u/1u 5dimes
The only thing that made me hesitant to pull the trigger earlier was the motivational aspect after hearing some of Diaz' recent interviews. However, this guy fights with such piss and viniger, I feel like a letdown is unlikely when combined with his always steady conditioning. Cyborg looked good last time out at 170 lbs, but his striking still leaves too many holes that Diaz can exploit. Would not be suprised if Diaz took some shots to the dome, but the guy has been finished with strikes one time in his career when he was very young. He has an iron chin and great composure. He recovers quickly and is not afraid to drop to ground when rocked in order to regain his wits because he is so comfortable off his back. Cyborg is going to be at a reach and height disadvantage and I think Diaz, while absorbing some shots, wears him out.
However, it may not even get that far, because I would not be suprised to see Diaz put Cyborg against cage, drop for a single, put him on his back and work the top game, ending the fight with some gnp that leads to a sub.
5dimes has Diaz -335 (77%) for fight and -173 (63%) for inside distance and -400 (80%) for fight to not go distance. I think they are are all short, but I see this fight going to diaz inside distance atleast 4 of 5 times, so I think best value is at the -173.

BOL, don't break the bank if you tail. If fight happens 100 times, Cyborg will win some of them.

[Poppa Catfish]

You can almost guarantee that in this 5 round fight that one of the two guys is going to get finished, and I think Diaz does it 90% of the time. This feels like the right way to bet this particular fight. I'm fairly certain I too will be on Diaz to finish inside the distance, so good luck to us both

[waco66]

9 times out of 10...Diaz..but there is a slim chance Cyborg knocks him out.

[Paradroid]

im on diaz and lawler as of now

[MadTiger]

9 times out of 10...Diaz..but there is a slim chance Cyborg knocks him out.

8.56 ~ 9 out of 10 (I agree!)

I would LOVE to see Cyborg KTFO Diaz.

[BIGDAY]

I got 3 Units on lawler!

[omalley21]

diaz by tko is +125. I doubt hes gonna submit him.

[ThisGuy]

I could see a submission ez

[urge2kill]

85% win probability at -350 odds should be a HUGE play for you guys. Kelly would suggest 32% of your bankroll.

[Jordan23]

I really want to take Lawler but I just can't pull the trigger.

[lasker]

I really want to take Lawler but I just can't pull the trigger.

If you're on Lawler I think you should take him by TKO or in round 1 and/or 2 at better odds. I don't see him winning any other way. Personally I think Jacare takes it, but I think one of those prop bets on Lawler makes more sense than Lawler to win straight up.

[Educ8d Degener8]

If you're on Lawler I think you should take him by TKO or in round 1 and/or 2 at better odds. I don't see him winning any other way. Personally I think Jacare takes it, but I think one of those prop bets on Lawler makes more sense than Lawler to win straight up.

This. Still not sure whether I'm even gonna play this one, but this is sort of my initial lean.

Let's take a look at some probable scenarios / outcomes...

Win for Jacare:

Via Sub - Probable; his bread and butter

Via TKO/KO - not so probable, unless Lawler get's "caught" in stand-up (not counting on that), or Jacare from gnp, again; not counting on that.

Decision -- all bets are off for me if this goes to decision.

Win for Lawler:

Via Sub - Um, no.

Via TKO/KO - Probable. I'm still not exactly sold on Jacare's improved stand up.

Decision -- again, all bets are off for me, 'cos if this goes to a 5 round decision, something off course will have occurred, and with the judges we know that... ya never know.


It seems as though this one should come down to who can execute their game plan better...
Jacare obviously wants to get it to the mat to get a sub / Lawler wants to keep it standing and make Jacare go night-night. So I suppose it comes down to Lawler's TDD. I just can't picture this going to the judges given the 5 rounds.

[terpkeg]

85% win probability at -350 odds should be a HUGE play for you guys. Kelly would suggest 32% of your bankroll.

Yes, but how accurate is my estimation of my edge. Plus, can you handle losing 32% of your bankroll? Which is a possobilty even if your edge is accurate. I dont think I can.

[Vrakas]

i am staying away from betting on this card but i will watch the fights

[Kaladarus]

I like your Diaz bet might be making a similar play.

[urge2kill]

Yes, but how accurate is my estimation of my edge. Plus, can you handle losing 32% of your bankroll? Which is a possobilty even if your edge is accurate. I dont think I can.

I'd say if you're estimating this at 85%+ you're more than a bit off or know something the market doesn't. And I lost near 32% of my roll when Koscheck was prematurely finished by Thiago. Taught me a valuable lesson about bankroll management and overestimating your edge.

[terpkeg]

I'd say if you're estimating this at 85%+ you're more than a bit off or know something the market doesn't. And I lost near 32% of my roll when Koscheck was prematurely finished by Thiago. Taught me a valuable lesson about bankroll management and overestimating your edge.

Any other market I would agree. But MMA is still very soft imo. Your Thiago fight is a great example. People familiar with Thiago knew something the market didnt (i was not one of them) Thing is though, this is a main event fight and the line has had time to adjust to an appropriate level, so there is a better chance I am overestimating my edge. But, it was -500 on Bodog yest, -405 on Bookmaker and I feel like people still under estimate Diaz. I think people under estimate his striking and in the last few years have forgotten about his ground game. His lack or takedown defense or willingness to fight off his back depending on who you are talking to, cost him in the UFC. Since then, he had the shitty performance against Aina when he was sick and had long flight, cuts vs. Noons, and has been dominant against mid-level compitition since.

But Cyborg is the type of fighter he has been feading on. A decent fighter who has trouble against top compition and does not have a strong wrestling base. We dont know if he can go 5, especially after the weight cut. This is not going to be a problem for Diaz who has excellent cardio. I just cant give more than a 10% chance to a Cyborg KO/TKO with the amount of shots I have seen Diaz shake off over the years. Will it catch up to him? Maybe, but I just dont think that time has come yet. He is still only 27.

Plus, I dont think this is the fight where Diaz tries to show off his brass balls. Yeah, he will bang in the opening minute. And, he will not burn excess energy in fruitless takedown attempts. But, Cyborg is weak off of his back and I think that is where Diaz puts him. Trade for a minute, Diaz presses through some shots and pushes Cyborg on cage, drops for single, gets takedown and I think there is a considerable possiblity that the fight ends on the ground in the first.

I could definetely be off here and I would caution anyone to use their own judgment, but to think that MMA lines are never 13% off, still to this day, is incorrect imo. With the gift of hindsight, was Matt Mitrione really a pick em against Kimbo Slice 6 months ago? Not saying I thought Mitrione was going to win that fight at the time, but anyone training with Mitrione would sure think so. Information is not as readily available, or as easily analyzed in MMA as in other sports.

I think I got Brian Cobb in Japan last year against Yokota at +450, I realistically thought that should have been a pick em. And it was a close split dec. These are two random fights that came to mind from the past 6 months. But just goes to show the market does not always adjust in MMA like other sports imo.

[urge2kill]

I think you're right about some lines being 13%+ off. For some reason I was thinking -350 was 70% which would make it 15-20% off. I now always question myself when I think I have more than 10% edge.

[Educ8d Degener8]

...was Matt Mitrione really a pick em against Kimbo Slice 6 months ago? Not saying I thought Mitrione was going to win that fight at the time, but anyone training with Mitrione would sure think so. Information is not as readily available, or as easily analyzed in MMA as in other sports.

My favorite line of 2010.

Young lion training with Duke Roufus versus an arthritic street brawler with an overhyped public backing him and biasing his betting line. I'm not sure we'll see a line like that again any time soon...

That card was awesome. Then you had a one dimensional Daley taking on Koscheck. That card was frickin' lovely.

[terpkeg]

Looks like this is going to be my only play.

Some thoughts on other fights, if anyone wants to add their opinions that would be great.

I flirted with Gracie when line was -145, but I coudn't get myslef to back him with concerns re: his commitment to MMA. Despite dropping Randelman, I dont think Gracie offers much standup. I get the feeling many of the Gracie's dont have their heart fully into MMA like they do their BBJ but dont want to turn the paycheck down. During his last fight they mentioned he only trains about 20% standup. ANyway, I think Gracie may struggle taking fight down to mat. But, I dont want to back Prangely because he does leave himself open to subs, and Gracie can take advantage of the smallest mistake.

I was hoping to see Coy at a short price, but at +200 I almost like Moore. Moore has shown deficiencies in his stand up defense, but he does train at AKA and I am always impressed with their fighter's stand up progression. Both were stand out collegiate wrestlers and wrestling should cancel out, but I do like Coy I bit more out of scrambles. Will be no play.

At first glance, Lwson jumped out at me at -230, but I didnt get to wtch any footage on Keslar, who is also an AKA product. And, Lawson seems to leave himself in subs way too often. Not sure Keslar's grapping pedigree though. Any opinions would be appreciated.

My closest lean is Jacare by Dec at +517, or UD at +650. Jacare has worked extensively on his stand up which seems like it could get him in danger, but I assume he wil mix his game plan up with leg kicks, stand up and takedown attempts. Lawler tends to rely too much on landing the big shot, and I think Jacare may actual be able to take a round or two out pointing Lawler on the feet similiar to Babalu. However, I dont find a huge edge here due to Lawlers power and Souza's skill set on the ground. The decision option just seems a little long to me at 16% and 13%.

[VegasInsider]

I'm on Diaz tonight for a couple units.