Originally Posted by
jcubs55
People see that Jones is a huge favorite of around -500 and simply dismiss it right away. BIG MISTAKE. People think you can't profit long-term by laying huge chalk because "eventually you will get f***ed"... I can't begin to explain how naive that mindset is. Simply put, you can profit betting any type of line as long as you pick and choose spots that are +EV over the long haul. Honestly, Jones should be around -2000 in almost all of his fights. With his reach, raw strength, athleticism and intelligence, he is nearly unbeatable. My friend sincerely believes that there is not one light heavyweight currently fighting in the UFC that has a solid chance at beating Jones. The only way he can lose is by a freak accident (broken arm/leg, etc), and has a very good chance to not lose for a very, very long time.
Needless to say, I will be betting Jones come Saturday. I see the line has started to climb, but I'm hoping the fact that Rampage is a public fighter will help tug it back down a bit since this line might seem unusually high for a "superstar". Regardless of the line (unless it's over -3000, lol), I will be betting Jones to win 4.0 Units... just a matter of time until I lock it in.