[Vaughany]

Sportsbook have Dunham at -265 and Guillard at +205, didnt think Evan would come out tht heavily favoured!

[Vaughany]

Guillard down to +175 now

[The HOFF]

Odds up on Bookmaker.

[Vaughany]

Korean Zombie has pulled out...awaiting replacement.

[terpkeg]

Wiman opened +185, i still like +160

[Vaughany]

Wiman opened +185, i still like +160

Yeah I hesitated and didnt take the +185...was hopin that Pinnacle would release their lines and have him at +190 to +200 but theyve just released it now and is at +160 as well.

[Vaughany]

Korean Zombie has pulled out...awaiting replacement.

Mike Brown steps in.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Anyone else loving Barry here? I'll have to review tape, but does Beltran have any hope of getting Barry down to the ground where we all know he's a fish out of water...???

'Cos if this fight stays standing, this could look similar to Barboza-Lullo or Aldo-Faber --> someone's legs will be getting tenderized.

[lasker]

Anyone else loving Barry here?

[kiefynugs]

My brother from another mother was actually stationed at Fort hood when I lived with his wife and kid in Copperas Cove for a summer.

True story

[1nce]

Hi guys, I'm new here but I've been reading this subforum for a few months now and i think you're doing an awesome job! I've been betting on MMA for three years and have been posting a lot of picks at my native forums. I did a few breakdowns for this event prior to the odds being released and I'll use google translate, hopefully i can contribute, have fun

Melvin Guillard Vs. Evan Dunham

Begins with Guillard. He looks better and better for every game going and he has tons of routine, although he is only 27 years. He's with Greg Jackson's camp since his last three games and I think you can see a clear improvement in his defensive wrestling and gameplan.

He is athletic like no other and explosive as hell. He has a good wrestling background and has been the Louisiana state wrestling champ in 2002. He usually prefer to stand and use his wrestling to avoid takedowns, the times he gets taken down, he usually pretty easy to get up when no one seems to have the strength to keep him down. His standup is really good and all he does is with the bath is not for discussion, it mixes well with knees, punches and kicks and moves in / out and sideways, which makes him difficult to hit or get hold of Guillard is constantly active on their feet and has good head movement and he usually keeps a fast pace and has awesome stamina to be so muscular. To take him down with a wrestling shot from a distance can be fatal when he often succeeds timing a knee as a better alternative is to clinch and go for a legtrip.

Weaknesses that I have seen is that he is receptive to legkicks, especially from the orthodox stance, opponents because he often circles to the left. This is a great way to slow him down and remove the explosiveness, Stephens used this very well against Guillard. He is far from impossible to take down as he often put so much effort into his combinations but it still requires a decent wrestler for timing the takedown before Guillard bounces out of reach. Against the cage, however, he is very hard to take down and if so, is a legtrip almost the only way.

Dunham, 29 year old Southpaw who trains with Extreme Couture. Like Guillard, I think he gets better with each match passing, and after checking his last five, I see already a number of improvements in his past shortcomings.

His strength is undoubtedly BJJ (black belt) and favorite techniques is the guillotine and rear naked choke which he mastered very well. He likes to take their back and lock the opponents with body triangle to then work in an RNC. His standing game is clearly competent but far from excellent and because he has not met with good strikers so it's a bit difficult to accurately assess the class, but it's not Guillard-class. His takedowns are pretty good, both when he shoots in and legtrips from the clinch. Dunham's takedown defense is pretty damn good as you saw in the game against Sherk, although he was taken down a few times but who does not get it to Sherk and basically every time he managed to lock the guillotine on Sherk. His footwork is fine but his head movement is almost non-existent, so even bad strikers are paid to him. He does not use kicks much with the exception of Sherk match which is not so surprising given the reach advantage he had.

Weaknesses I have found is that he is very open to looping right hooks, this because he's Southpaw with poor head movement and also has a bad habit of circling to the left straight into power. Because of this, he was really in trouble against Efrain Escudero who almost managed to knock him out.

My odds:
Melvin Guillard Vs. Evan Dunham 1.92 2:08, -109 +108
Go the distance vs. Not go the distance 2.77 1:56, +177 -179

Justification:
I know I probably stick my chin out properly when I assert that Guillard should be a slight favorite against Dunham, but I stand by it. Chances are that the bookies hands out the first Christmas gift of 2k11 when the odds are released, I expect Dunham to come out @ ~ 1.65 (-154) and probably he will be played hard by the public.

Dunham has not strikingskills enough to keep up with Guillard on his feet, then he has that kind of obvious defensive gaps that plays straight into the arms of Guillard. Dunham must take down Guillard otherwise I'm not sure he even survives round 1. Not at all impossible that Dunham succeed with some takedown but he will have a hard time keeping Guillard down and because Guillard will hardly go on takedown so may Dunham not get any free chances for the guillotine.

As I see it, Guillard wins by KO / TKO or Decision and Dunham by submission or Decision(not likely imo). Dunham won the decision over Tyson Griffin by having his back more or less the whole match but if he would take back the Guillard like that, I think he manages to tap him out, hence why I do not think Dunham wins by Decision.

Both have rugged chins and none of them have been knocked out earlier but Guillard chin is sharper end of the stick when he was able to take hard knocks from Jeremy Stephens while Dunham was about to fall asleep when Escudero Connected.

Most likely outcome as I see it, Guillard by KO / TKO, followed by Dunham via submission and thirdly Guillard via Decision.

[Vaughany]

Good shit 1nce, and welcome to the forum . You make good points about Dunham's lack of defence standing and although I didnt expect Guillard to be the favourite, I did think he would be closer to +130 to +160 range rather than +185 to +200 that he is at currently. I certainly dont see value in Dunham at his current odds of -210 to -270. May I ask, where are you from and what is your native language out of interest?

[1nce]

Thx Vaugh! I'm swedish. I'll post my other breakdowns in a minute.

WAR "The Mauler"!!

[Vaughany]

Ahh very good!...Gustaffsson is a beast, I was there at O2 Arena when he decimated Diabate at 120! His fight with Te-Huna should be awesome, looking forward to that one, kinda wish it was on main card over Noke/Camozzi but Im sure it will get shown during the broadcast at some point.

[1nce]

Matt Mitrione, 32 year old Southpaw who trains with Roufusport. He is fairly inexperienced in MMA with just three professional games, all having gone under the UFC's flag. Something he definitely has the talent to MMA and he is developing at a rapid pace in all areas but mainly his Muay Thai coach as "Duke" Roufus can be credited.

As I said this is his Muay thaien far the best discipline in which he uses the whole register. He has a great eye and timing of boxing, likes to lead with Jabber and hit very straight combinations and I think he should mix up more with hooks and uppercuts. His kicks are very effective, especially the low kicks (ask Kimbo, hehe). Mitrione has really good footwork to weigh 253 lbs and there is nothing wrong with the stamina either, he usually put great pressure and counter effectively. His takedown defense is not the best but it gets better as you could see against Beltran who has ok wrestling. When Mitrione gets taken down, he has an ok defense even if he has not encountered any high caliber grapplers and he scrambler well as the need for good top control to keep him down. Have not seen him go to take down myself and there never have been his strategy, he would stand and tradea. His chin is very solid and his fists possesses good KO power.

Weaknesses that I noticed is that he usually always swinging wildly when he's backing, which means that almost anyone can take him down with a doubleleg if you just set it up with some strikes before. Then I think he often slugger too much which probably has to do with his sturdy chin and power (a la Leben) but he faltered in fact one time when Beltran Connected.

Can not find info on which teams are training with Tim Hague. He is 27 years and have decent experience, but every time he meets a skilled opponent, he seems to lose. It might be about to change after he won over Travis Wiuff in AMMA later. Hague looks to be in better shape than before, he weighs 256 now to 266 in his last UFC match.

Do not think Hague excel in any special area and he's trying to hold the match where he feels to have an edge over his opponent, if he has trouble on his feet he will go to the takedown and his takedowns are clearly decent, but his top control is flawed, even if his Gn'P is quite heavy. Standing, he has a pretty good footwork (until stamina fails) and likes to loop both the right and the left. He is by no means a good striker but he mixes techniques. He has really heavy legkicks which he unfortunately uses the rare but he seems to have improved on his game in the clinch. He is a blue belt in BJJ but I do not think he shows any remarkable skills of its jitz (guillotines, anyone can get sometimes). He can take a punch but is quite feasible to knock out (Todd Duffee). Two straight wins in AMMA gave a ticket back to the UFC. Unfortunately, the matches of AMMA very short so you never got the chance to see how stamina was but he looks fit now.

Biggest weakness is / was stamina. Besides that, I think that he is quite open for kicks, high and low, which becomes particularly evident when he can hardly move after the first round.

My odds:
Matt Mitrione Vs. Tim Hague 1:58 2.72, -172 +172
Go the distance vs. Not go the distance 2.86 1:54, +186 -185

Justification:
The "new" fitter Hague could be an X-factor in the match but as I see it is Mitrione be clear favorite here. Mitrione is much better standing, but because he keeps his hands low, there is good chance that Hague connects hard with the right hammer, I do not think Mitrione fall asleep but can even the odds during the game.

Since the Hague does not have much to pick up standing, he guaranteed to go to the takedown and I think he may have some success but Mitrione takes enough usually up again. Then there is this with Hague's condition, it is certainly better but I do not think it is good enough that he will not get bored around the middle of two: a. In this situation Mitrione will be able to put basically everything and I would not be particularly surprised if "Meat Head" wins via TKO legkick.

Hague has a chance to win if he manages to take down Mitrione early and can keep him down, at least for a while, and then repeat the procedure. Must also give Hague a punchers chance as he has really good push in the right wing.

Most likely outcome is Mitrione by KO / TKO.

[lasker]

Hej 1nce, great breakdown and great to have you here. I think we have some of the best cappers on SBR at this forum.

I've similar thoughts to you about the Dunham-Guillard fight, although I did not go so far as to say that Guillard should be the favorite. My initial thoughts on the fight were posted here http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/boxing-mma...-ufn-23-a.html

Perhaps Guillard really should be favored; I'm a bit biased to Dunham because I have made good money no him when he fought Escudero and Griffin. But it's hard to tell with this fight because Dunham has not yet faced a top striker. I am going to pull the trigger on Guillard +200, the first Christmas gift as you call it, even though I've been waiting for Guillard by TKO/KO props!

[Vaughany]

Hej 1nce, great breakdown and great to have you here. I think we have some of the best cappers on SBR at this forum.

I've similar thoughts to you about the Dunham-Guillard fight, although I did not go so far as to say that Guillard should be the favorite. My initial thoughts on the fight were posted here http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/boxing-mma...-ufn-23-a.html

Perhaps Guillard really should be favored; I'm a bit biased to Dunham because I have made good money no him when he fought Escudero and Griffin. But it's hard to tell with this fight because Dunham has not yet faced a top striker. I am going to pull the trigger on Guillard +200, the first Christmas gift as you call it, even though I've been waiting for Guillard by TKO/KO props!

Guillard by TKO/KO is +450 on paddy and by decision is +400. Im gonna wait till bookmaker and Sportbet props come out before I decide on one of those. Also considering a rather elaborate fight to go the distance prop hedged with Dunham Submission of the Night at +500 or better and Guillard TKO/KO of the Night at +700 or better! As they are the main event Im quite confident that they'd likely get the award if one of them finished the other.

[1nce]

Cole Miller Vs. Matt Wiman

Cole Miller is 26 years old, has brown belt in BJJ and trains with American Top Team in Florida. One can not complain about his trainingsparterns or coaches who all are of high level. I can not say he has developed in some rocket speed but of course he gets better all the time and the level of his BJJ is high and on par with many black belts.

Miller favors chokes and many of the gains have come on the triangle and guillotine. He has a sick inverted triangle from the bottom as he shocked the Dan Lauzon with and even be close to choke out Jeremy Stephens with. His standing game is good and he has by no means been outclassed on his feet when he has faced cruel strikers as Ross Pearson and Jeremy Stephens. I think it has much to do with his long reach and constant jabber that disrupt opponents' rhythm. He mixes techniques good standing and has good kicks and a powerful left hook that include rocked Pearson. His takedowns are really bad but his takedown-defense is good from what little you have seen. He likes to jump guard, and he seems to prefer to use his BJJ from bottom when he finds it difficult to pass and get something done from the top. Offensive bottom opens up scramble if he would stand again.

Weaknesses are that he doesn't protect his head well with his hands and poor head movement which makes him easy to hit but his standing reach is to offset to some extent. The lack of good takedowns can cause problems if he faced better strikers. there is some question marks about his chin, which is not the best.

Matt Wiman is 27 years. He has been wrestling as a base but I think he is great all round. Found info that he had blue belt in BJJ in 2007 but I can not find the current status. He trains with "Skrap Pack" Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu so he has good training partners, mainly in BJJ.

His standing game is not technically good but he has real power in his fists, kicks are pretty sloppy. He wields healthy and everything he sends is at maximum power, a lot of hooks and uppercuts. He clearly has KO power but if he does not get an early dividend stamina begins to deteriorate. Wrestling is pretty good, his takedowns are good and takedown-defense is good. He has great top control and really good ground and pound as he likes to utilize. I think his BJJ is a great class even if it is not as good as Miller's, he is active and protects well from the bottom, pretty hard to keep down. He likes to lock the body triangle when he gets back on his opponent but could lose it quite easily too. He has only been knocked out once, it was a flying knee from Spencer Fisher so Wiman's chin is solid and I do not think Miller could knock him out.

Biggest weakness I think is his conditioning, which probably has to do with him being a untechnical striker who always hit hard. He broke his arm before a fight in September and this will be the first fight after the injury, we'll see if it affects the stamina even more. He likes going for the takedowns when he gets tired and if he does some sloppy effort against Miller, he could easily end up in a guillotine.

My odds:
Cole Miller Vs. Matt Wiman 1.60 2.67, -167 +167
Go the distance vs. Not go the distance 1.75 2:33, -133 +133

Justification:
Wiman will probably swing healthy from the start to try to knock out Miller but I think that Miller should be able to weather the initial storm. Wiman can safely take down Miller, but I think he won't, it is not a good idea, given Miller's cruel guard. The longer the match goes the more ought Miller to take over command wherever the match is held.

I really do not think Miller succeeds to sub Wiman since he has a good defense, it would be if Miller succeeded to take full advantage of a sloppy takedown. Miller, with his dodgy takedowns will experience very difficult to take down Wiman. The method for Miller is to survive first and then start taking over more and more to secure a decision win. Wiman's fairly recent injury problems hardly does him any favors.

Most likely end Miller via Decision, then Wiman by KO / TKO.

[lasker]

Guillard by TKO/KO is +450 on paddy and by decision is +400. Im gonna wait till bookmaker and Sportbet props come out before I decide on one of those. Also considering a rather elaborate fight to go the distance prop hedged with Dunham Submission of the Night at +500 or better and Guillard TKO/KO of the Night at +700 or better! As they are the main event Im quite confident that they'd likely get the award if one of them finished the other.

I seriously need to move to Europe to get a paddypower account, it seems even more lucrative than Pinnacle. Oh... except for the limits.

Up to you, but I wouldn't wait on that Guillard by TKO/KO +450. I'm convinced there's value in that. Do they have round props out? What is Guillard to win in rd 1?

[1nce]

I bet with a unit range of 1-10u where 1u i 0.5% of my bankroll. I have a few prop and distance bets also, but since they are @paddypower the limit was really low. For example i would have bet 10u on Dunham vs. Guillard to NOT go the distance @1.83 but was only allowed to bet 1.5u.

Cole Miller vs Matt Wiman
3u 2.90

Evan Dunham vs Melvin Guillard
10u 3.00

[1nce]

I seriously need to move to Europe to get a paddypower account, it seems even more lucrative than Pinnacle. Oh... except for the limits.

Up to you, but I wouldn't wait on that Guillard by TKO/KO +450. I'm convinced there's value in that. Do they have round props out? What is Guillard to win in rd 1?

Nothing to mourn about, I ensure you. The bastards at paddy limit players doing profit very quickly

[1nce]

@lasker

Guillard to win in rnd 1 is +700 @paddy, they let me put 0.15u on that.

[NickBaragona]

I bet with a unit range of 1-10u where 1u i 0.5% of my bankroll. I have a few prop and distance bets also, but since they are @paddypower the limit was really low. For example i would have bet 10u on Dunham vs. Guillard to NOT go the distance @1.83 but was only allowed to bet 1.5u.

Cole Miller vs Matt Wiman



3u 2.90

Evan Dunham vs Melvin Guillard
10u 3.00

So you put 5% of your bankroll on Guillard?

[lasker]

@lasker Guillard to win in rnd 1 is +700 @paddy, they let me put 0.15u on that.

Thx. Good bet!

[1nce]

So you put 5% of your bankroll on Guillard?

Sure, I can't pass on the great value offered (+200). It will leave a mark if it misses but in the long run i see no problem in betting like this. I can mention that this is only the second 10u bet I've made out of 115 total bets since I started my spreadsheet 2010-08-22.

[NickBaragona]

I have Dunham, but may put a small wager on Melvin by KO/TKO

[1nce]

Any thoughts on my other breakdowns?

Waiting with betting on Hague since the odds seems to get better and hopefully I'll be able to pull the trigger when it peaks.

[urge2kill]

So you put 5% of your bankroll on Guillard?

If you use Kelly bet sizing and put the true line at +170 you would bet about 5% of your roll at +200.

[Vaughany]

Good to see another paddypower user! So it's not just me then who theyve put ridiculous limits on! When did they start puttin really low limits on your account 1nce? Up until early December last year I was able to put like 50 units on a single play but now I can only put 5 units on, and as you say with the prop bets it's only 1 unit if lucky!

[Vaughany]

Do they have round props out? What is Guillard to win in rd 1?

For UFC 125 the round props wer much better on 5dimes/sport bet then they were on paddypower and the fight to go distance props arent as good as they used to be, hence why I've signed up to Sportbet and Bookmaker now as well!

[Vaughany]

Im liking that Hominick by sub has gone down from 4/1 to 7/2.

[Vaughany]

Cole Miller vs Matt Wiman
3u 2.90

Did you get the +190 at ladbrokes same as me before it went down?!

[NickBaragona]

Honestly I was going to pick Mitrione, but I haven't looked into the matchup much.

[Vaughany]

He trains with "Scratch Pack" Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu so he has good training partners, mainly in BJJ.

Sorry but couldnt help but laugh at google's translation! Could catch on tho...maybe Mayhem could use it in his anti-Diaz crusade!

[1nce]

Good to see another paddypower user! So it's not just me then who theyve put ridiculous limits on! When did they start puttin really low limits on your account 1nce? Up until early December last year I was able to put like 50 units on a single play but now I can only put 5 units on, and as you say with the prop bets it's only 1 unit if lucky!

I checked my history and it seems they started to tighten the limits around september and it's shrinking more and more, soon I'll stop playing there. Are you using sportingbet.com? At times they are just as stupid as uncle paddy when releasing their props, one yhat comes to mind was Bisping by decision @+225 over Akiyama which i went heavy on

Fact is that i already had placed a small bet on that at 5dimes @+133 since i saw value and then all of a sudden sportingbet hands out that gift.