Originally Posted by
lasker
Thanks KCJMAC, you recently won the SBR contest so it's great to get your vote of confidence.
You may be right, but I think Penn is always a bit overrated by the betting public, so I tend to go against him as a matter of principle (unless he's facing someone like Stevenson, who had absolutely no way to beat him), especially with a fighter who already beat him once. I'm sure Penn is motivated, but his conditioning may still be suspect. I also think that Edgar is almost always underrated by the betting public, and with everyone dismissing the first win as a fluke or a bad decision, I think this is the case yet again.
I tend to agree that Edgar's biggest chance to win, by far, is to win by decision ... however, I've been burned a few times by betting only by decision rather than on a fighter to win straight up, and I just wanted Edgar +260 as some insurance just in case Penn gasses and Edgar surprisingly manages a TKO. Normally I would have gone bigger on the Edgar by 5 round decision, so I just reduced that bet a little bit for some peace of mind.
Edgar and Edgar by decision plays a big role in a number of my parlays also, as well as Benavidez and Benavidez inside the distance. By the way, Edgar by decision is now down to +376. Glad I got it when I did.