[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN+ 8:00 pm ET
Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad
Misha Cirkunov vs. Ryan Spann
Philipe Lins vs. Ben Rothwell
Dan Ige vs. Gavin Tucker
Angela Hill vs. Ashley Yoder
Matheus Nicolau vs. Manel Kape

ESPN+ 5:00 pm ET
Eryk Anders vs. Darren Stewart
J.J. Aldrich vs. Cortney Casey
Ray Rodriguez vs. Rani Yahya
Charles Jourdain vs. Marcelo Rojo
Davey Grant vs. Jonathan Martinez
Gloria de Paula vs. Jinh Yu Frey
Matthew Semelsberger vs. Jason Witt

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Belal is a tough guy and game opponent but Leon is way more skilled. Hoping the ring rust doesn't hurt him, I'm rooting for the guy after all the bad luck he has had.

[unlearn]

I love fading Eryk Anders

[magpie878]

I can't see Edwards losing this one, for the little that's worth.

I'd certainly like to see Anders lose too.

[WolfTicketDealer]

Gonna be a small betting card for me. Like the Brunson v. Holland card much more.

[hankcream]

It looks like the UFC wants to hype Kape and are giving him an opponent he should beat. Wish I would have hit it earlier - 4 units @ -141.
Leaning towards Muhammad, going to have to re-watch Edwards old fights especially Usman & dos Anjos.

[PaperTrail07]

Depends on Which Dentist you get....but yeah

I love fading Eryk Anders

[PaperTrail07]

Liking -Kape, iGE, Cirk, Lins

[Hugo de Naranja]

Seeing a few guys betting Kape. Nicolau is no joke.

[PaperTrail07]

For sure---its simply the $ man in me---not looking at skills...

Seeing a few guys betting Kape. Nicolau is no joke.

[hankcream]

Seeing a few guys betting Kape. Nicolau is no joke.

Might have to watch some of his older fights and his TUF bouts. Other than Luis Smolka- who may have had alcohol issues, has he beaten anybody else? Looks like he's been off for over a year too. His line might get up to +150 - are you taking some of that?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Might have to watch some of his older fights and his TUF bouts. Other than Luis Smolka- who may have had alcohol issues, has he beaten anybody else? Looks like he's been off for over a year too. His line might get up to +150 - are you taking some of that?

John Moraga (should have been UD not Split Decision) is his biggest win to date. For sure you should be watching his earlier UFC fights. Yes, I plan to.

[Hugo de Naranja]

For sure---its simply the $ man in me---not looking at skills...

Skills #1 for me when capping.

[hankcream]

John Moraga (should have been UD not Split Decision) is his biggest win to date. For sure you should be watching his earlier UFC fights. Yes, I plan to.

Thanks for the info, I'll check it out. Still liking Kape to bounce back & it looks like he might be hanging out with Khabib link .

[Hugo de Naranja]

Thanks for the info, I'll check it out. Still liking Kape to bounce back & it looks like he might be hanging out with Khabib link .

Fair enough, let me know what you find out.

[Demonata]

Liking Spann and Muhammad moneyline so far.

[Thrilla]

[PaperTrail07]

Agree its the go to-but their matchmaking is sharp in the UFC w reasons for a lot of it.....not that they WANT a guy to win but maybe a good fight to show their skills ect

Skills #1 for me when capping.

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups -




145 lbs.: Charles Jourdain vs. Marcelo Rojo

Charles Jourdain (10-3-1) rebounded from a UFC debut loss to Desmond Green with an impressive come-from-behind knockout of Doo Ho Choi that earned him “Fight of the Night.” The former TKO double champ remains winless since then, losing a close split decision to Andre Fili and rebounding from a disastrous start to force a split draw against Josh Culibao.
All of his wins have come inside the distance, seven of them via knockout.
Argentina’s Marcelo Rojo (16-6) has not seen the judges since his fifth professional fight in 2012 and enters the world’s largest fight promotion with wins in eight of his last 10 appearances. He last fought in Nov. 2019, knocking out Victor Hugo Madrigal in 88 seconds.
He steps in for Steve Garcia on short notice after a previous bout with Raoni Barcelos fell through due to COVID-19.
Barcelos vs. Rojo would have been an absolute wipeout in the Brazilian’s favor, as Rojo’s ground game isn’t anywhere near sufficient to deal with Barcelos’ jiu-jitsu onslaught. Jourdain vs. Rojo, on the other hand, is going to be an absolute slugfest. Both men hit profoundly hard, and seeing as neither’s particularly keen on taking it to the ground, they’ll be able to throw their wildest and most destructive techniques with impunity.
Unfortunately for Rojo, he’s still in for a debut loss, as moving up in weight against a hitter as fearsome as Jourdain is a recipe for disaster. Stuck on the wrong side of the size, power and presumably durability differences, expect Rojo to come out guns blazing but ultimately fall short in a firefight.
Prediction: Jourdain via first-round technical knockout
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135 lbs.: Jonathan Martinez vs. Davey Grant

Jonathan Martinez (13-3) has quietly put together a 4-1 run since his unsuccessful Octagon debut against Andre Soukhamthath, the only loss a highly questionable split decision against Andre Ewell. His last two wins were his most impressive to date, as he beat down Frankie Saenz and out-dueled the dangerous Thomas Almeida in the span of two months.
His nine professional stoppages include seven by form of knockout.
Former The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 18 finalist, Davey Grant (10-4), has struggled to get his Octagon career going because of constant injuries, fighting just five times in the seven years since his debut loss to Chris Holdsworth. Lately, however, he’s managed to build some momentum with entertaining wins over Grigorii Popov and Martin Day, the latter of which earned him “Performance of the Night.”
He has tapped eight professional opponents overall and knocked out another two.
As much as I appreciate Grant’s newfound willingness to supplement his quality ground game with balls-to-the-wall brawling, I’m not sure it’s terribly sustainable. The man’s still tough as nails at 35, but there’s an abundance of Bantamweights with the firepower to lay down a frightful beating on him. While Martinez may or may not be able to actually put Grant down for good, his recent form suggests bad things for the Brit.
Martinez’s vastly improved takedown defense and advantages in striking technique and raw firepower give him the tools to sprawl-and-brawl Grant into oblivion. That is, of course, assuming he’s fixed the weight issues that made him hit the scale at 140.5 for the Frankie Saenz fight. If he has, “Dragon” batters the ever-durable Grant for a wide decision or late stoppage.
Prediction: Martinez via unanimous decision
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115 lbs.: Gloria de Paula vs. Jinh Yu Frey

Gloria de Paula (5-2) — girlfriend and training partner of women’s Flyweight contender Mayra Bueno Silva — ended a 14-month layoff by joining “Contender Series” in Nov, 2020. There, she dominated unbeaten judo expert Pauline Macias to earn both a unanimous decision and a UFC contract.
Three of her professional victories have come by form of knockout.
Jinh Yu Frey (9-6) defeated Minna Grusander for the Invicta Atomweight title in 2018 and successfully defended it in a rematch, only to lose it on the scales before a unanimous decision over Ashley Cummings. She’s yet to taste victory in the Octagon, tapping to Kay Hansen in her promotional debut and dropping a decision to Loma Lookboonmee last time out.
She gives up two inches of height and reach to de Paula.
Frey will always be her own worst enemy in the cage, but de Paula’s definitely a close second. The Brazilian is taller, younger, rangier, more powerful, and above all, more active than Frey. Indeed, she landed more significant strikes against Macias than Frey did in her two UFC fights combined. If this stays on the feet, de Paula’s going to bury her in long-range combinations and clinch knees.
If Frey wants to finally enter the UFC win column, she has to either press forward with uncharacteristic volume or try to grind out de Paula from the top. She’s too set in her ways to do the former and de Paula’s rapidly improving grappling position makes the latter deeply unlikely. In short, de Paula starts her Octagon career off right with a dominant striking performance.
Prediction: de Paula via unanimous decision
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170 lbs.: Matthew Semelsberger vs. Jason Witt

Matthew Semelsberger (7-2) put together a three-fight win streak to set up a late-notice UFC debut against fellow debutant Carlton Minus. Aggression and volume carried Semelsberger to a unanimous decision win in their Aug. 2020 meeting.
He’ll have three inches of height and five inches of reach on Jason Witt (18-6).
“The Vanilla Gorilla” had won four straight when he stepped into the Octagon against Takashi Sato in June 2020, though the momentum didn’t save him from a 48-second stoppage defeat. He did quite a bit better in his sophomore effort, dominating an overweight Cole Williams before submitting him in the second.
His professional finishes are split 8:3 between submissions and knockouts.
This fight entirely comes down to Semelsberger’s ability to keep it standing. He’s the more dangerous striker by a considerable margin, but while he takedown defense is generally solid, his nonstop aggression can leave him open to well-timed shots. Witt showed in his last fight that he is both perfectly happy to impose his wrestling if given the opportunity and capable of doing real damage if he ends up on top.
Still, it’s hard to pick someone with four (technical) knockout losses against someone with the sort of power and output that Semelsberger brings to the table. In the end, “Semi the Jedi” survives a few rough ground exchanges to breakdown Witt for the finish.
Prediction: Semelsberger via second-round technical knockout




185 lbs.: Eryk Anders vs. Darren Stewart

Eryk Anders (13-5) followed up his successful LFA title run with wins in three of his first four Octagon appearances, only to lose his next three in quick succession. Victories over Vinicius Moreira and Gerald Meerschaert put him back on track, though he failed to get past Krzysztof Jotko in his most recent effort.
He’ll have one inch of height and reach on “The Dentist”
Darren Stewart (12-6) stumbled his way to an 0-3 (1 NC) UFC start, though he did walk away with “Fight of the Night” for his terrific war with Julian Marquez. He’s gone on to win five of his next eight, earning another two post-fight bonuses along the way.
Eight of his professional victories have come inside the distance, seven by form of knockout.
Now here’s a fascinating crossroads tussle. Anders went from profoundly entertaining and promising to consistently underwhelming, while Stewart went from genuinely hapless to utterly devastating. Anders likely has the tools to win this, but Stewart’s far more likely to fully unleash his own arsenal, which has me leaning the Brit’s way.
Stewart just powers through adversity far better than Anders does, and Anders’ lack of a great takedown game should give Stewart free reign to knuckle down and overpower him. Whether in a slugfest or a slow-paced slog, Stewart lands more and heavier blows to seal the win.
Prediction: Stewart via unanimous decision
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125 lbs.: Cortney Casey vs. J.J. Aldrich

Following a length run at 115 pounds, Cortney Casey (9-8) announced her arrival in the Featherweight division by tapping Mara Romero Borella with a bonus-winning armbar. One month later, she stepped up on short notice against Gillian Robertson, who caught her in a rear-naked choke late in the third round.
Four of her seven stoppage wins have come by form of knockout.
Though her efforts on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 23 failed to result in an immediate Octagon invite, J.J. Aldrich (8-4) went on to win four of her next five following an unsuccessful debut against Juliana Lima. Then came young gun Sabina Mazo, who defeated her by narrow split decision in Jan. 2020.
Though the shorter of the two by two inches, she’ll enjoy a slight reach advantage.
For a match up between striking specialists with zero UFC knockouts between them, this could end up being a lot of fun. Aldrich clearly has the edge in speed and crispness, while Casey’s physicality and relentlessness allow her to trade hands with almost anyone in the division. It will come down to whether Aldrich’s mobile sharp-shooting pleases the judges more than Casey’s flurries and forward movement.
Casey once went to three consecutive split decisions, so there’s no telling what will actually happen after the final bell rings, but between the aforementioned speed advantage and Casey’s lack of upper-body movement, Aldrich will end up landing the cleaner shots. And I say that sways at least two judges.
Prediction: Aldrich via split decision
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135 lbs.: Rani Yahya vs. Ray Rodriguez

Now in his nineteenth year as a professional, Rani Yahya (26-10-1) makes the walk this weekend in the midst of a 7-2-1 run dating back to 2014. He is winless since 2018, however, dropping a decision to Ricky Simon and drawing with Enrique Barzola in his most recent effort.
He has dispatched 20 professional opponents via submission.
Ray Rodriguez (16-7) got his first crack at UFC stardom on “Contender Series,” where he was summarily mauled by Tony Gravely. One year later, he stepped up on short notice to face Brian Kelleher in the Octagon, tapping to a guillotine 39 seconds into the first round.
He’ll enjoy a three-inch reach advantage.
Like Demian Maia, Yahya has his mixed martial arts (MMA) game down to a science: he’ll come out guns blazing in pursuit of takedowns, which he has enough energy to properly attempt for about eight minutes. His gameplan is to either score an early submission, making up for his relative lack of physicality through world-class technique and sheer effort, or if that fails, last just long enough to win the second round and avoid losing the third 10-8.
Plan A should be plenty against Rodriguez, whose submission defense has consistently failed him throughout his career and whose takedown defense looks similarly porous. Yahya can only threaten with that ground game for so long, but with such a considerable gap in grappling prowess, he’ll get the finish well before his gas tank empties.
Prediction: Yahya via first-round submission

[hankcream]

Fair enough, let me know what you find out.

Hugo, I watched most of Nicolau's past fights & he's got nice skills and good kicks but I think he's more of a defensive fighter/ counter striker. If Kape come out like he did against Pantoja it will be a boring ass fight & Nicolau will probably win. I just think Kape has something to prove and his crazy ass shit might get into Nicau's head and he's been hanging out in Vegas since the Pantoja fight - training with Khabib & his ATT boys. Plus I think he has a speed advantage and has faced similar opponents in RIZIN. I need to see what they both look like at the weigh-ins tomorrow, if they both make weight and look good I'll still take Kape at the current odds for betpoints if you are up to it.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hugo, I watched most of Nicolau's past fights & he's got nice skills and good kicks but I think he's more of a defensive fighter/ counter striker. If Kape come out like he did against Pantoja it will be a boring ass fight & Nicolau will probably win. I just think Kape has something to prove and his crazy ass shit might get into Nicau's head and he's been hanging out in Vegas since the Pantoja fight - training with Khabib & his ATT boys. Plus I think he has a speed advantage and has faced similar opponents in RIZIN. I need to see what they both look like at the weigh-ins tomorrow, if they both make weight and look good I'll still take Kape at the current odds for betpoints if you are up to it.

I agree with most of your insights about the dynamics at play. Think Kape is faster standing but he's low volume and has had trouble with guys that can kick. Who would you say is similar that Kape fought in RIZIN?

[hankcream]

I agree with most of your insights about the dynamics at play. Think Kape is faster standing but he's low volume and has had trouble with guys that can kick. Who would you say is similar that Kape fought in RIZIN?

I think Asakura & Hirogushi

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think Asakura & Hirogushi

They are both somewhat similar but Kape is 1-2 against them. Did you see the Sasaki fight? If not, I can send a link.

[Hugo de Naranja]

They are both somewhat similar but Kape is 1-2 against them. Did you see the Sasaki fight? If not, I can send a link.

https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1At411z7Fu/?spm_id_from=333.788.recommend_more_vide o.12

[hankcream]

https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1At411z7Fu/?spm_id_from=333.788.recommend_more_vide o.12

Good fight, I can't believe they let them fight and kick with shoes on. I don't think Nicolau is going to try to get it on the mat & Kape's wrestling is decent. With Nickolau's lay off it reminds me of the Bautista & Jones fight last week & the Dustin Ortiz fight would have me a little concerned if I was on Nicolau.

[hankcream]

https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1At411z7Fu/?spm_id_from=333.788.recommend_more_vide o.12

Do you use MMAPlay365 tape index , it's pretty handy $3.99/mo & you need to be subscribed to UFC Fight pass

[PaperTrail07]

Card has a sleeper feel to it.... Prepare for fireworks IGE to -160 now GRRRRRRRRRRRRR

[Hugo de Naranja]

Good fight, I can't believe they let them fight and kick with shoes on. I don't think Nicolau is going to try to get it on the mat & Kape's wrestling is decent. With Nickolau's lay off it reminds me of the Bautista & Jones fight last week & the Dustin Ortiz fight would have me a little concerned if I was on Nicolau.

Fair points. Kape can crack and it's a little concerning that Nicolau got KO'd by Dustin Ortiz of all people. Was a head kick though tbf.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Good fight, I can't believe they let them fight and kick with shoes on. I don't think Nicolau is going to try to get it on the mat & Kape's wrestling is decent. With Nickolau's lay off it reminds me of the Bautista & Jones fight last week & the Dustin Ortiz fight would have me a little concerned if I was on Nicolau.

Thanks for checking it out.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Do you use MMAPlay365 tape index , it's pretty handy $3.99/mo & you need to be subscribed to UFC Fight pass

I don't use it since I can usually find what I'm looking for but I've heard good things about it.

[frankieunits2685]

Fight day

[hankcream]

It looked like Spann had a tough weight cut & didn't look very good at the faceoff.
1 unit Chirkunov by sub +175

[Thrilla]

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 45: Edwards vs. Muhammad Picks:
Matthew Semelsberger Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Gloria de Paula Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Cortney Casey Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Nasrat Haqparast Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Rani Yahya Round 1 Submission (North-South Choke)
Charles Jourdain Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Angela Hill Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Darren Stewart Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Matheus Nicolau Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Jonathan Martinez Round 3 TKO (Flying Knee and Punches)
Gavin Tucker Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Misha Cirkunov Round 1 Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Leon Edwards Unanimous Decision (49-46 x3)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 45: Edwards vs. Muhammad

ESPN+ Prelims:

Fight #1: Semelsberger vs. Witt
Semelsberger KO/TKO (+410) 0.5u

Hedge:
Witt Decision (+340) 0.25u

Fight #2: De Paula (DEBUT) vs. Frey
No Bet

Fight #3: Casey vs. Aldrich
Casey (+131) 0.38u

Fight #4: Haqparast vs. R. Garcia (DEBUT)
No Bet

Fight #5: Yahya vs. R. Rodriguez
Yahya Submission (+100) 0.65u

Fight #6: Jourdain vs. Rojo (DEBUT)
Jourdain Submission (+750) 0.15u

Fight #7: A. Hill vs. Yoder
A. Hill Decision (-155) 0.85u to win 0.55u

Main Card:

Fight #8: Stewart vs. Anders
Stewart (-187) 1u to win 0.54u
Stewart+Anders Goes Distance (-156) 1u to win 0.64u

Fight #9: Nicolau vs. Kape
Nicolau (-146) 0.65u to win 0.45u
Nicolau+Kape Over 2.5 (-126) 0.75u to win 0.6u

Hedge:
Kape Decision (+330) 0.3u

Fight #10: J. Martinez vs. Grant
Parlays

Fight #11: Tucker vs. Ige
Tucker Decision (+210) 0.5u

Fight #12: Cirkunov vs. Spann
Cirkunov (-138) 1.55u to win 1.12u
Cirkunov+Spann Won’t Start Round 2 (+150) 0.35u
Cirkunov Submission (+260) 0.4u

Fight #13: L. Edwards vs. Muhammad
L. Edwards Unanimous Decision (+185) 0.55u

Hedge:
Muhammad Decision (+500) 0.25u

Straight Parlays:
Stewart+Anders Over 2.5/L. Edwards (+101) 0.75u
Stewart+Anders GD/J. Martinez (+117) 0.5u

Multi-Event Parlays:
L. Edwards/Volkanovski (+114) 0.75u
Askarov+Benavidez O2.5/L. Edwards (+117) 0.5u