[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN+ 8:00 pm ET
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Ciryl Gane
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Nikita Krylov
Montana De La Rosa vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
Randy Brown vs. Alex Oliveira
Pedro Munhoz vs. Jimmie Rivera
Alex Caceres vs. Kevin Croom

ESPN+ 5:00 pm ET
Alexander Hernandez vs. Thiago Moises
Alexis Davis vs. Sabina Mazo
William Knight vs. Alonzo Menifield
Vince Cachero vs. Ronnie Lawrence
Maxim Grishin vs. Dustin Jacoby

[hankcream]

Down to 11 fights might be a short night

[frankieunits2685]

Ramazan Kuramagomedov steps in to fight Alex Oliveira (@AlexCowboyUFC
) at #UFCVegas20 (via @MMAjunkieJohn
)

[Thor4140]

Ramazan Kuramagomedov steps in to fight Alex Oliveira (@AlexCowboyUFC
) at #UFCVegas20 (via @MMAjunkieJohn
)

I think if Dana told Alex all we have is a lion would you take the fight? He would of course say yes.

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups -






125 lbs.: Alexis Davis vs. Sabina Mazo

Alexis Davis (19-10) — now closing in on eight years in the Octagon — went 5-2 as a UFC Bantamweight before successfully debuting at 125 pounds with a decision over Liz Carmouche. She’s yet to taste victory since, dropping consecutive decisions to Katlyn Chookagian, Jennifer Maia and Viviane Araujo.
“Ally-Gator” has submitted eight professional opponents and knocked out another two.
Though her hype train lost some momentum after a UFC debut loss to Maryna Moroz, Sabina Mazo (9-1) got it back on track with three consecutive victories. Her most recent proved her most impressive, as she dropped Justin Kish with a head kick before choking her out in the third.
She’s 13 years younger than Davis, stands one inch taller, and has a two-inch reach advantage.
On the one hand, Davis’ recent losses have come exclusively to quality Flyweights — Chookagian and Maia went on to challenge for the title, while Araujo has established herself as one of the division’s best prospects. On the other, this looks like a really rough match up for her, as Mazo has the takedown defense to keep it on the feet and the kickboxing skills to control and out-work her there.
Admittedly, Davis always puts up a tough fight and Mazo has let fights get closer than they need to be, so “Ally-Gator” gritting out a narrow decision isn’t out of the question. Still, the younger, fresher, busier Mazo looks poised to potshot her way to an entertaining victory.
Prediction: Mazo via unanimous decision
Related
UFC Vegas 20 Poster For ‘Rozenstruik Vs Gane’

135 lbs.: Ronnie Lawrence vs. Vince Cachero

Ronnie Lawrence (6-1) ended a two-year layoff with a first-round knockout in Jan. 2019, then sat out another 15 months following a win in his LFA debut. Back in Sept. 2020, he faced Jose Johnson on “Contender Series,” racking up a dozen successful takedowns en route to earning a UFC contract.
Half of his professional wins have come by form of knockout.
Vince Cachero (7-3) — a one-time LFA title challenger — snapped a two-fight losing streak in Feb. 2020, knocking out Marvin Garcia. Six months later, he stepped up on short notice to face Jamall Emmers, who used a lethal clinch and consistent takedowns to take a wide decision victory.
He stands two inches shorter than Lawrence at 5’6” and gives up 2.5 inches of reach.
I’m willing to cut Cachero plenty of slack for his performance in the Emmers fight because it was a last-minute bout against a very talented Featherweight; however, his complete inability to deal with Emmers’ wrestling makes it hard to see him winning this. Lawrence has the takedown prowess and gas tank to put Cachero on his back all night, making the latter’s striking advantage a non-factor.
Cachero’s best chance is to stay patient and try to catch Lawrence coming in, as “The Heat” is vulnerable when closing the distance. Considering his usual penchant for all-out aggression and Lawrence’s ability to capitalize on any opportunity, however, the likelier outcome sees Lawrence put him through the same roller coaster ride he did Johnson and start his Octagon run with a win.
Prediction: Lawrence via unanimous decision
Related
Rozenstruik Vs. Gane To Serve As New UFC Vegas 20 Headliner

205 lbs.: Maxim Grishin vs. Dustin Jacoby

Maxim Grishin (31-8-2) put together an 18-1-2 run on his way to the Octagon, where he lost a short-notice Heavyweight clash with Marcin Tybura in his debut. He returned to Light Heavyweight for his sophomore effort three months later and knocked out Gadzhimurad Antigulov for his inaugural UFC victory.
“Maximus” has ended 22 professional bouts inside the distance, 16 of them via knockout.
Eight years after leaving UFC on a loss, Dustin Jacoby (13-5) showcased his vastly improved kickboxing with a decision over Ty Flores on “Contender Series.” He didn’t need the judges upon his return to the Octagon proper, however, running over Justin Ledet in just a half-round.
He’ll enjoy a two-inch reach advantage.
Fond as I am of Jacoby, he still needs to prove both his cardio and his ability to handle mid- to high-level wrestlers. Grishin figures to test one of those things, being a straightforward kickboxer with a strong motor and plenty of cage experience. If Jacoby can keep pace with him, his edge in firepower and versatility should be sufficient to secure a unanimous decision. If he fades the way he did on “Contender Series,” however, Grishin’s more than good enough to capitalize.
In Jacoby’s defense, that fight was just his second mixed martial arts (MMA) bout since 2015, so it stands to reason that his full-time return to the cage will produce appropriate adjustments to his pace. Grishin will make him work for it, but expect Jacoby to control the center and land the more telling shots on his way to victory.
Prediction: Jacoby via unanimous decision



155 lbs.: Alexander Hernandez vs. Thiago Moises

Alexander Hernandez’s (12-3) brutal UFC debut knockout of Beneil Dariush and subsequent decision over Olivier Aubin-Mercier put him on the fast track to Lightweight contender status, only for knockout losses to Donald Cerrone and Drew Dober and a highly questionable decision win against Francisco Trinaldo to leave him fighting for his Octagon life. He came up big when it counted in Oct. 2020, however, battering Chris Gruetzemacher in 106 seconds to earn “Performance of the Night.”
Though both men are the same height, he’ll have a slight 1.5-inch reach advantage.
Thiago Moises (14-4) — a former RFA champion and LFA title challenger — punched his ticket to the Octagon in 2018 with a first-round knockout on “Contender Series: Brazil.” Though he lost two of his first three UFC appearances, he enters the cage this weekend having beaten Michael Johnson and Bobby Green in succession.
His nine professional finishes include six by submission.
This fight will come down almost entirely to Hernandez’s approach. Lethal as Moises can be, he’s markedly less dangerous off the back foot. Indeed, if Hernandez comes out looking to be the boss — as he did in his first two Octagon appearances and the Gruetzemacher knockout — he’s got the skills to bully the Brazilian around the ring and neutralize his most effective weapons. If he tries to stick-and-move his way to victory like he did against Trinaldo and Dober, Moises will overwhelm him in short order.
Even with his issues, I’m picking Hernandez to sprawl-and-brawl his way to victory. That last beatdown win should give him the confidence necessary to ramp up his aggression and prevent Moises from taking charge. In the end, “The Great” makes it two straight with power punches and perhaps a takedown or two.
Prediction: Hernandez via unanimous decision
Related
Up Next! UFC Returns For ‘Rozenstruik Vs Gane’

205 lbs.: Alonzo Menifield vs. William Knight

Alonzo Menifield (9-2) needed just eight seconds to finish Dashawn Boatwright on “Contender Series” and earn himself a UFC contract on his second try. Though he started his UFC career strong with brutal knockouts of Vinicius Moreira and Paul Craig — the latter of which earned him a “Performance of the Night” bonus — he subsequently came up short in upset losses to Devin Clark and Ovince St. Preux.
None of his nine victories have lasted longer than 5:32.
William Knight’s (9-1) upset knockout of Herdem Alacabek in 2019 earned him a developmental contract, and though he lost to Tafon Nchukwi two fights later, an impressive finish of Cody Brundage in his return to “Contender Series” led to a UFC debut just three weeks later. There, he used effective top control to beat fellow series alum Aleksa Camur by unanimous decision in his first professional trip to the judges.
He gives up two inches of height and three inches of reach to Menifield.
There is a right way and a wrong way to fight Knight, and to my eternal frustration, everyone seems dead-set on going about it the wrong way. He’s actually quite limited on the feet and not much of an offensive wrestler, but opponents insist on trying to initiate the grappling with him, allowing him to reverse and unleash his genuinely scary ground-and-pound. All you have to do to beat this guy is ignore how jacked he is, avoid the leg kicks, and beat him up with punches the way Nchukwi did.
On paper, Menifield has the tools to do all that — the way he blew up two takedown-focused fighters in Moreira and Craig should give him plenty of confidence. At the same time, he struggled badly to deal with the fairly fragile Clark’s clinch aggression and seemed utterly flummoxed by Ovince St. Preux’s length, so he might not have the wherewithal to actually keep Knight off of him and fight smart. I say Knight wears him down against the fence before polishing him off late.
Prediction: Knight via third-round technical knockout
Related
Munhoz Vs. Rivera Rescheduled For UFC Vegas 20

170 lbs.: Alex Oliveira vs. Ramazan Kuramagomedov

Alex Oliveira (22-9-1) halted a three-fight losing streak with consecutive decisions over Max Griffin and Peter Sobotta, upping his Octagon record to 11-6 in the process. “Cowboy” then got the call to welcome M-1 champ Shavkat Rakhmonov to the Octagon, only to fall victim to the Kazakh’s guillotine late in the first round.
Twelve of his 17 finishes have come by form of knockout.
Despite moving up in weight for his “Contender Series” bout against Jordan Williams, Ramazan Kuramagomedov (8-0) entered as a massive favorite, but only managed to eke out a narrow split decision that failed to earn him a contract. He has since won two straight, including a submission of Trevor Ollison under the Cage Fury banner in Sept. 2020.
He replaces Randy Brown on just five days’ notice.
When Kuramagomedov controls the pace, he’s a delight to watch, mixing his versatile power kicks with sharp combination punching. When he can’t find his comfort zone — like what happened against Williams — his defense can fall apart. The question, then, is whether Oliveira can use his physicality and raw power to prevent Kuramagomedov from getting a proper flow going.
I’ve flip-flopped a couple times, but I think Kuramagomedov gets the nod. A big part of Williams’ success was his implacability and willingness to answer volume with volume. Oliveira, by contrast, is a relatively low-output fighter who often relies on racking up top control to conserve energy. That’s not going to work against a stronger wrestler and more versatile striker. Like Nicolas Dalby and others before him, Kuramagomedov survives the early blitz to steadily take apart “Cowboy” down the stretch.
Prediction: Kuramagomedov via unanimous decision

[frankieunits2685]

Alonzo Menifield tests positive for COVID-19; #UFCVegas20 bout vs. William Knight postponed.

[magpie878]

Despite having some good skills, I don't think Gane deserves to be that big a favorite, this soon, against a quality opponent.

Immediately thought of Brunson vs Shahbazyan's odds when I saw this one, as that one felt way too off also.

Gane can CERTAINLY win this, but I'll take my chances, on the cheaper side, with Rozenstruik at those odds.


(then again, I though Moraes vs Sandhagen was off too.... )

[Hugo de Naranja]

Despite having some good skills, I don't think Gane deserves to be that big a favorite, this soon, against a quality opponent.

Immediately thought of Brunson vs Shahbazyan's odds when I saw this one, as that one felt way too off also.

Gane can CERTAINLY win this, but I'll take my chances, on the cheaper side, with Rozenstruik at those odds.


(then again, I though Moraes vs Sandhagen was off too.... )

Not a good comparison at all imo. Shahbazyan is massively flawed (cardio, getups, heart), Gane is not.

[Sanity Check]

Le Martin's picks

Angela Hill -160
Magomed Ankalaev by KO/TKO -120
Jairzinho Rozenstruik by KO/TKO +275

...

[magpie878]

Not a good comparison at all imo. Shahbazyan is massively flawed (cardio, getups, heart), Gane is not.

Not comparing the athletes, only the odds. I don't think Gane should be that heavy a favorite, much like I thought in that bout.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Not comparing the athletes, only the odds. I don't think Gane should be that heavy a favorite, much like I thought in that bout.

Fair enough

[unitedlad]

Alonzo Menifield tests positive for COVID-19; #UFCVegas20 bout vs. William Knight postponed.

Annoying, could have been a nice live play there.

You know what's also kind of disgusting; there's no news of this fight being dropped on the official UFC twitter or website. What's that about?

[frankieunits2685]

Grishin misses weight by 4.5 pounds

[PaperTrail07]

Ugh LOL..

Grishin misses weight by 4.5 pounds

[hankcream]

I've been wrong before, but this looks like a real chalky card

[UncleChael]

Rozenstruik has like 100 fights compared to Gane's 14 fights... What am I missing here Hugo? This is your future heavyweight champ? That's a tough sell Hugooossss

[63M1N1]

I know a guy who knows a guy who sparred once with Gane and was never the same. 😛

[unitedlad]

Liking another underdog bet in the heavy main tonight. WGD looks good in a parlay as well.

[JIBBBY]

Going with the dogs in this event mostly. Might even be trying the double up dog theory with this one also. Lose a dog bet double up on the next. This is a tough card to bet on IMO from top to bottom.

Dogs could bark in this one!!!

[frankieunits2685]

happy fight day

[frankieunits2685]

Angela Hill vs. Ashley Yoder is off due to COVID-19 protocols, per the UFC. The bout will be rescheduled for March 13.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Rozenstruik has like 100 fights compared to Gane's 14 fights... What am I missing here Hugo? This is your future heavyweight champ? That's a tough sell Hugooossss

Gane is more skilled everywhere. Only question is whether Rozenstruik catches him with a big one or not.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Rozenstruik has like 100 fights compared to Gane's 14 fights... What am I missing here Hugo? This is your future heavyweight champ? That's a tough sell Hugooossss

Gane ain't the only future champ on this card either.

[Thrilla]

[JIBBBY]

Angela Hill vs. Ashley Yoder is off due to COVID-19 protocols, per the UFC. The bout will be rescheduled for March 13.

Shit!! Hill by decision was easy money in that fight .. Damn it!!

[JIBBBY]

Gane is more skilled everywhere. Only question is whether Rozenstruik catches him with a big one or not.

Same situation as the Black Beast fight like last week. Punching power needs to land or you lose to the more skilled guy. Just that simple.

Punching power always the equalizer in MMA with those small gloves on and especially at HW. .

[63M1N1]

Gane ain't the only future champ on this card either.

Sure not.
Ankalaev is the second one.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Same situation as the Black Beast fight like last week. Punching power needs to land or you lose to the more skilled guy. Just that simple.

Punching power always the equalizer in MMA with those small gloves on and especially at HW. .

On this week's episode of Caught or Not?

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 44: Gane vs. Rozenstruik Picks:
Dustin Jacoby Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Vince Cachero Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Alexis Davis Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Alexander Hernandez Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Kevin Croom Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Jimmie Rivera Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Mayra Bueno Silva Round 1 Submission (Armbar)
Magomed Ankalaev Round 1 TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
Ciryl Gane Round 2 Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 44: Gane vs. Rozenstruik

ESPN+ Prelims:

Fight #1: Jacoby vs. Grishin
Jacoby (-177) 1.25u to win 0.71u

Fight #2: Cachero vs. Lawrence (DEBUT)
Cachero (+138) 0.5u

Fight #3: A. Davis vs. Mazo
A. Davis (+184) 0.75u

Fight #4: A. Hernandez vs. Moises
No Bet

Main Card:

Fight #5: Croom vs. Caceres
Croom (+164) 0.35u

Fight #6: J. Rivera vs. Munhoz
J. Rivera (-146) 1.76u to win 1.21u
J. Rivera Decision (+105) 0.25u
J. Rivera KO/TKO (+900) 0.1u

Hedge:
Munhoz Submission (+850) 0.25u

Fight #7: Bueno Silva vs. De La Rosa
No Bet

Fight #8: Ankalaev vs. Krylov
Ankalaev (-247) 1.22u to win 0.49u
Ankalaev ITD (-145) 0.74u to win 0.51u
Ankalaev Submission (+1000) 0.1u

Hedge(s):
Krylov ITD (+485) 0.25u
Krylov KO/TKO (+1000) 0.25u

Fight #9: Gane vs. Rozenstruik
Gane+Rozenstruik Under 2.5 (-112) 0.56u to win 0.5u
Gane Submission (+500) 0.5u
Gane Round 2 (+600) 0.35u

Straight Parlays:
Ankalaev/Gane (-109) 2.25u to win 2.07u
J. Rivera/Ankalaev (+107) 0.6u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Ankalaev/O’Malley (-115) 1.15u to win 1u
Ankalaev/Brady (+102) 1u

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Party time


0.55u Dustin Jacoby By Decision +191


0.55u Alexis Davis By Decision +250
0.55u Fighter Wins Inside Distance - Sabina Mazo +325
0.25u Sabina Mazo wins in round 3 +1200


0.55u Alexander Hernandez by KO/TKO or DQ +300


1.1u Kevin Croom +156
0.55u Kevin Croom By Submission +370
0.55u Kevin Croom by Points +550


1.1u Montana De La Rosa -115


0.55u Magomed Ankalaev By Decision +267
0.25u Magomed Ankalaev in Round 1 +200


0.55u Cyril Gane By Submission +324

[Hugo de Naranja]

Best of luck DDD!

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Best of luck DDD!

Same to you, Hugo.

And everybody else tonight!

[hankcream]

Fight Night 20 Plays:
4 units Rivera -145
3 units Cacerss - 170
2 units Hernandez/ Moises under 2.5 rounds + 165
2 units Gane by KO/TKO/DQ + 190
1 unit MB Silva -105

In Vegas & I can’t find a Sportsbook that will have the fights on. William Hill, MGM, and all the other Vegas books don’t hold a candle to BetOnline or Bookmaker.
GL Gents

[63M1N1]

Croom, munoz, ankalaev, gane, hernandez. Ronnie and dustin.
Here, I said it.