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UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno (December 12, 2020)
Pay-per-view 10:00 pm ET
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno (for Flyweight title)
Tony Ferguson vs. Charles Oliveira
Rafael Fiziev vs. Renato Moicano
Ronaldo Souza vs. Kevin Holland
Junior dos Santos vs. Ciryl Gane
ESPN2 8:00 pm ET
Daniel Pineda vs. Cub Swanson
Mackenzie Dern vs. Virna Jandiroba
Billy Quarantillo vs. Gavin Tucker
Tecia Torres vs. Sam Hughes
ESPN+ 6:30 pm ET
Serghei Spivac vs. Jared Vanderaa
Peter Barrett vs. Chase Hooper
Last edited by THE_LOCKSMITH; 12-09-20 at 10:38 PM.
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This post was nominated 1
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People who nominated: Thrilla
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Much appreciated Locky!
The D'Arce Knight Rises! Me and Tony are humbled now. Tony Ferguson will get this guy outta there in 15 minutes.
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Finally a quality card top to bottom on paper. My opinion at least. May actually handicap this one. Hopefully no more covid pulls.
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This post was nominated 1
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People who nominated: Thrilla
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I'm excited for this one also. I already have 6 bets. Waiting on a few more.Originally Posted by terpkeg
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This post was nominated 1
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People who nominated: Thrilla
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Dwight Grant, Angela Hill and Karl Roberson test positive for Covid.
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This post was nominated 1
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People who nominated: Thrilla
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Hopefully they go back to Fight Island. Been far too many cancellations on these Vegas cards.
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Agreed!
Liking the favorites so far on this card.
lol
Kind of a tough card to bet big on, the only thing I've got locked in so far is Billy Quarantillo 3.5 units -135
Good Call ThereMissed some quality fights!.......If I was a UFC fighter....I would ask to move there and train full time /be ready at all times LOL...
Card is stacked IMO----finally some better matchmaking
Holland/Ferg parlay+203
Dern sub +210
Gane TKO -125
^^This may be the card to two team parlay a couple of the favorites. I'm with Unlearn on that.
Card is losing fighter left and right....
Who now?
If Do Bronx finishes Tony, he'll pass Cerrone for most finises in UFC history.
Very nice event from top to bottom, looking forward to it
And, Another
Jared Vanderaa just tested positive ... out of fight vs. Serghei Spivac
Damn. Had a multi-unit play on Spivac at (-158).
Great---so did I....
- The card next Saturday now has 15 fights! A lot of good ones on paper too... I'm sure there will be a few cancelled though. Quarantillo and Tucker both opened at -110 on Betway, now Quarantillo's around -170.
Some write ups -
265 lbs.: Serghei Spivac vs. Jared Vanderaa
Serghei Spivac (11-2) rebounded from a knockout loss in his Octagon debut with an upset submission of Tai Tuivasa, but couldn’t do the same to Marcin Tybura his next time out. Five months later, he successfully returned to action with a decision over then-unbeaten Carlos Felipe on “Fight Island.”
He’s ended 10 professional fights inside the distance, six of them by submission.
Jared Vanderaa (11-4) knocked out UFC veteran Ruan Potts to claim an EFC Heavyweight title, which he defended with a knockout of Ricky Misholas. After splitting his next two bouts, “The Mountain” joined “Contender Series,” where he pounded out late replacement Harry Hunsucker to claim a contract.
He stands one inch taller than Spivac and will have a two-inch reach advantage.
Don’t come in expecting fireworks from Vanderaa — he’s as lumbering as that nickname would suggest and isn’t much of a factor on the feet, making Spivac the clear winner in a kickboxing match. Where he shines is with his ground-and-pound, and as the considerably larger man, he’ll really only need one takedown to get Spivac out of there.
The question, then, is whether he can get it. I’ll say “probably.” That’s because Spivac was out-wrestled by Marcin Tybura and generally isn’t afraid to initiate the grappling. In the end, Vanderaa trips him down sometime in the first round and rains down punches for the finish.
Prediction: Vanderaa via first-round technical knockout
Related
Watch UFC 256 ‘Countdown:’ Figueiredo Vs. Moreno Full Episode
170 lbs.: Dwight Grant vs. Li Jingliang - Canceled (Details)
The 2-1 Octagon start for Dwight Grant (10-3) saw a knockout of Carlo Pedersoli sandwiched between controversial decisions against Zak Ottow and Alan Jouban, the latter of which went his way. There was no controversy in his last bout, however, as he fell to Daniel Rodriguez in an insane slugfest this past August.
All seven of his professional finishes have come by form of knockout.
The recent 7-1 run for Li Jingliang (17-6) saw him pick up five separate post-fight bonuses, including Fights of the Night against Frank Camacho and Jake Matthews. His most recent effort saw a three-fight win streak end at the hands of Neil Magny at UFC 248.
He has knocked out seven professional opponents and submitted five others.
Aside from that one-punch finish of Pedersoli, which capped off a fairly uneventful round, the bulk of Grant’s UFC efforts have been slow-paced sparring sessions. The reason for his reluctance became clear against Rodriguez, as he punched himself out in only a few minutes. His only modes of attack are waiting for a perfect opportunity or just going balls-out, neither of which will work against a heavy-handed, ultra-durable veteran like Li.
Li’s too tough, too sharp, and too seasoned in brawls for Grant to win a slugfest, and he’s too good a kickboxer for Grant to try and counter. In short, Grant’s wide swings hit air as Li overwhelms him with power shots in the first.
Prediction: Li via first-round technical knockout
Related
Up Next! UFC 256 PPV In Las Vegas!
145 lbs.: Chase Hooper vs. Peter Barrett
Chase Hooper’s (9-1-1) comeback decision over Canaan Kawaihae on “Contender Series” earned him a developmental contract, which he followed with a 2-0-1 run on the regional scene. Though he managed to pound out Daniel Teymur in his Octagon debut, Alex Caceres proved a step too far, resulting in “The Dream’s” first professional defeat.
He has ended seven professional fights inside the distance, four by form of choke.
Peter Barrett (11-4) didn’t manage to finish Sang Hoon Yoo on “Contender Series,” but outlasting him proved sufficient to earn him a spot in the Octagon. The coronavirus delayed his debut until August, when he fell short against late replacement Youssef Zalal.
“Slippery Pete” gives up three inches of height and almost as much reach.
What we have here is a clash between an underdeveloped fighter and one whose development ended well short of “UFC-caliber.” Hooper’s ceiling eclipses Barrett’s by a frankly unreasonable margin; the question is whether he’s even remotely close enough to that ceiling to get the win.
Even though I got burned by picking Hooper to beat Caceres, I think he is.
Barrett’s not a particularly difficult man to take down and is nowhere near as elusive as Caceres, which should give Hooper the clinch opportunities he needs to drag it to the mat and get his genuinely solid top game going. “Slippery Pete” has enough pop to potentially exploit Hooper’s terrible striking, but expect his takedown defense and submission defense to once again fail him as Hooper wraps up his neck early.
Prediction: Hooper via first-round submission
145 lbs.: Cub Swanson vs. Daniel Pineda
A 10-2 run — marred only by losses to Frankie Edgar and Max Holloway — brought Cub Swanson (26-11) to the verge of a title shot, only for the World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC) veteran to drop four straight. He proved he still had something left in the tank last year by upsetting unbeaten Kron Gracie in a “Fight of the Night”-winning effort.
This will be his first fight in 14 months.
Daniel Pineda (27-13) — who saw two dominant Professional Fight League (PFL) finishes erased by a failed drug test — returned to the Octagon last August after more than six years away. “The Pit” made the most of the opportunity by demolishing the surging Herbert Burns to win “Performance of the Night” at UFC 252.
All 27 of his wins have come inside the distance, 18 of them via submission.
As with undercard castmate Tecia Torres, it’s worth remembering that Swanson hasn’t lost to a single bad fighter in ages. Hell, the worst of those four he recently lost to was Shane Burgos, and he gave “Hurricane” everything he could handle. He’s definitely declined, but his struggles are in large part due to his murderous strength of schedule.
That said, Pineda’s dealt with some tough customers himself, notably the very capable Movlid Khaybulaev and the aforementioned Burns. Those wins have asterisks, of course, but he showed the stopping power, toughness, and ground skills to give Swanson all sorts of issues, especially since the WEC vet lacks the overpowering wrestling that’s historically troubled Pineda. In the end, “The Pit” catches Swanson in a submission midway through a terrific slugfest.
Prediction: Pineda via second-round submission
Related
Watch UFC 256 ‘Countdown:’ Figueiredo Vs. Moreno Full Episode
115 lbs.: Mackenzie Dern vs. Virna Jandiroba
A perfect (2-0) UFC start for Mackenzie Dern (9-1) gave way to a one-sided loss to Amanda Ribas, who controlled the former Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion on both the feet and the mat. The loss appears to have done her some good, as she’s scored consecutive “Performance of the Night”-winning submissions over Hannah Cifers and Randa Markos.
She is the taller of the two by one inch, but gives up as much reach.
Virna Jandiroba (16-1) claimed the Invicta FC Strawweight title with a decision over Mizuki Inoue, then successfully defended it by tapping Janaisa Morandin six months later. While she fell to Carla Esparza in her Octagon debut, she got back on track with submission wins over Mallory Martin and Felice Herrig.
She has tapped 13 professional opponents, seven of them via rear-naked choke.
If Dern’s loss to Amanda Ribas wasn’t an outlier, she’s in for a rough night. While Jandiroba may not have quite the same level of grappling accolades, she’s by far the better wrestler of the two, and we’ve seen plenty of ostensibly superior submission artists struggle to get much going off of their backs. “Carcara” is an elite jiu-jitsu player in her own right, which should be sufficient to keep her out of submission danger.
Dern may want to lean on her stand up; underdeveloped as it is, she packs some real power in that right hand, and Jandiroba’s own striking lags well behind her grappling. I don’t see Jandiroba obliging her in a kickboxing battle, though, so expect the Brazilian to grind her out for a decision.
Prediction: Jandiroba via unanimous decision
Related
Up Next! UFC 256 PPV In Las Vegas!
145 lbs.: Billy Quarantillo vs. Gavin Tucker
Billy Quarantillo (15-2) — four years removed from a 1-1 stint on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 22 — beat down Kamuela Kirk to secure a UFC contract on “Contender Series.” “Billy Q” has proven similarly effective in the Octagon, racking up a trio of entertaining victories.
He’ll enjoy three inches of height and four inches of reach on “Guv’nor.”
Nearly two years after a disastrous loss to Rick Glenn, Gavin Tucker (12-1) announced his return to the Featherweight scene by choking out Seung Woo Choi in his native Canada. Another year-long layoff followed, after which he survived an early knockdown to choke out Justin Jaynes and earn a post-fight bonus in the process.
His 10 professional finishes are split 6/4 between knockouts and submissions.
This match up could provoke some unpleasant memories in Tucker; Quarantillo isn’t too terribly similar to Glenn in terms of style, but he’s every bit as utterly relentless. That said, Tucker does have some things going for him that he didn’t before, namely the experience of going through that mess and an opponent who’s easier to take down. Overpowering Quarantillo on the mat is more feasible than overpowering Glenn, especially considering that he seems to have fixed the cardio issues that cost him so dearly against the latter.
As Quarantillo’s fights with Kirk and Spike Carlyle showed, however, he’s exhausting to try and keep down, and his sheer output on the feet allows him to offset any time he spends on his back. Tucker should find some success, but between the reach and volume differences, Quarantillo narrowly outworks him in an early “Fight of the Night” candidate.
Prediction: Quarantillo via unanimous decision
Main Card -
125 lbs.: Deiveson “Deus da Guerra” Figueiredo (20-1) vs. Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno (18-5-1)
Neither of these men entered the Octagon with an obvious road to greatness. They faced some some adversity, fought their way through it, and advanced their games without sacrificing the boundless aggression that made them so fascinating to begin with. It’s a shame one of them has to lose here.
On the bright side, Moreno’s only 27, so there’s plenty of time to bounce back once again.
Though he consistently exceeds my expectations, this just looks like a rough night for “The Assassin Baby.” Figueiredo’s takedown defense and scrambling skills have held up extremely well against dangerous grapplers, nullifying the threat of Moreno’s ground game, and Moreno’s willingness to engage in firefights plays right into the champion’s hands. Moreno’s striking is more effective than it looks and he’s a deceptively hard puncher, but he doesn’t have enough, if any, of a technical edge to make up for the far more lethal punches coming his way.
Moreno’s best hope lies in Figueiredo willingly engaging him on the ground, which isn’t as outlandish as it sounds. Figueiredo was confident enough in his guillotine to try it against dangerous top control specialists in Tim Elliott and Alex Perez, and though it worked for him in those situations, Moreno’s impeccable submission defense makes that a risky move.
Unfortunately, Moreno would still have to either tap Figueiredo or at least hold him down for a while, neither of which are easy to do. He’ll find it extremely difficult to generate enough ground offense to offset the crushing blows Figueiredo offers on the feet.
Figueiredo just wrestles and scrambles too well for Moreno to bring his submissions to bear, and he hits too damn hard for Moreno to survive a protracted slugfest. “Deus da Guerra” piles up enough damage to force a stoppage in the championship rounds.
Prediction: Figueiredo def. Moreno by fourth-round technical knockout
155 lbs.: Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson (25-4) vs. Charles “do Bronx” Oliveira (29-8)
More than anything else, even his scary pressure striking, Oliveira’s mental improvement throughout his current hot streak has impressed me. We’ve seen “do Bronx” melt in the face of adversity more than once, most notably against Paul Felder back in 2017, but that hot-and-cold frontrunner bears little resemblance to the unstoppable monster of the past three years. While most of his wins were quick and dominant, he powered through rough starts against Christos Giagos and David Teymur before executing perfectly for just over two rounds against a very game Kevin Lee, ultimately choking all three men out in impressive fashion.
10 years after his Octagon debut, we’re finally seeing Oliveira live up to his potential. In a bizarre twist, he’s the reliable one in this matchup, as Ferguson’s mindset is a massive question mark.
“El Cucuy’s” loss to Justin Gaethje was the sort that can permanently derail a fighter, and not just because of the damage Gaethje inflicted; Ferguson regularly walks through fire to make his attacks work, after all. What made that defeat so potentially devastating was his complete inability to get his game going outside of one good uppercut. Ferguson’s relentless advance demands supreme confidence in his offense that he may no longer possess, a possibility made even more worrying by his apparently lack of a Plan B.
Everything seems to be lined up for an Oliveira upset, but what saves this for Ferguson is that he won’t need to go looking for the Brazilian. Gaethje took him apart with patient, counter-heavy outfighting, while Oliveira is almost certainly going to hit Ferguson straight on. Even with all of his improvements, I don’t see that going well for “do Bronx,” especially since his historical weakness to front chokes could limit his ability to bring it to the mat.
This is, of course, assuming that Gaethje didn’t just beat Ferguson’s prime out of him; Oliveira can capitalize on any striking or grappling lapses in an instant. If that isn’t the case, Ferguson overpowers him in a close-quarters slugfest for a late finish.
Prediction: Ferguson def. Oliveira by third-round technical knockout
155 lbs.: Renato Moicano (14-3-1) vs. Rafael “Ataman” Fiziev (8-1)
Props to Fiziev for bravery. As good as he looked against Alex White and Marc Diakiese, going up against a submission specialist of Moicano’s caliber with untested wrestling is a profoundly ballsy move. Winning this would be sufficient to erase the memory of Magomed Mustafaev kicking him in the face, leaving “Ataman” on the brink of contender status.
This is essentially a two-true-outcome battle. If it stays on the feet, Fiziev wins; Moicano’s ability to keep shorter fighters at bay isn’t terribly consistent, as seen in the bombs he ate against Jose Aldo, Chan Sung Jung, and even Cub Swanson to a lesser extent. Fiziev’s sharp enough to out-kick him at range and powerful enough to violently punish any attempts at an infight. If it hits the ground, Moicano has it in the bag, as Fiziev hasn’t faced a grappler of even similar potency.
Call it a hunch, but I like Fiziev in this one. His grappling looked reasonably stout against a decent wrestler in Diakiese, he’s capable in the clinch, and he fights out of the same camp that turned Petr Yan into one of the best anti-wrestlers in the game. While Moicano could very easily just put him on his back and choke him out before he can get any offense going, I see Fiziev clipping him in an early exchange for a breakout victory.
Prediction: Fiziev def. Moicano via first-round technical knockout
185 lbs.: Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (26-8) vs. Kevin “Trail Blazer” Holland (20-5)
It’s rare to see two fighters so perfectly equipped to exploit one another’s weaknesses. Souza has the ground game to decisively punish Holland’s wrestling lapses, but Holland has the range to avoid the Brazilian’s haymakers and steadily sap his gas tank. The winner will be the one who best imposes their preferred style of fight.
For my money, that’s Souza.
Holland boasts an insane nine-inch reach advantage, but a similar dimensional deficit didn’t stop Darren Stewart from finding his way inside and thrice dumping Holland to the mat. That wasn’t an isolated incident, either; lesser wrestlers than Souza have consistently managed to get inside those ultra-long arms and get their takedowns going, forcing Holland to rely on his scrambling skills. That’s, well, less than advisable against one of the greatest jiu-jitsu artists to ever put on a gi.
Souza’s cardio issues don’t guarantee a Holland victory if “Trail Blazer” escapes the first round, either, as a gassed-to-death Gerald Meerschaert proved able to rack up top control time well into the third round. Holland’s wrestling issues and occasional Fight IQ lapses undercut his incredible physical gifts, and even an aged “Jacare” is too sharp to let those sorts of opportunities pass him by.
Holland could very well just take Souza apart at long range, but his inability to keep determined opponents from closing the distance looks to be his undoing. While this may be nostalgia talking, expect Souza to exploit Holland’s ever-leaky takedown defense and wrap up his first sub since 2017.
Prediction: Souza def. Holland via first-round submission
265 lbs.: Junior “Cigano” dos Santos (21-8) vs. Ciryl “Bon Gamin” Gane (6-0)
For 99% of his August fight with Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Junior dos Santos finally looked like himself again. He moved well, showed sharper punches than he had in years, and handily defused an ultra-dangerous kickboxer. Then he took one clean shot and all of that was moot.
As a “Cigano” fan since he graced the first PPV I ever saw, that loss was particularly heartbreaking. Even in his previous struggles, there was an argument to be made that he was just a few adjustments away from regaining his elite status. Against Rozenstruik, he did everything right, but his body just couldn’t carry him that far anymore.
Luckily for him, Gane is nowhere near that level of one-shot knockout artist. Unfortunately, he also presents a level of footwork that has befuddled the generally linear dos Santos in the past.
Each of dos Santos’ last seven opponents have been come-forward attackers. Before that was Alistair Overeem, who used an evasive style to frustrate and ultimately lay out the Brazilian. Gane is an even better mover than Overeem and boasts an enormous reach advantage, making it highly unlikely that dos Santos can keep him in range long enough to land one of his kill shots. Between Gane’s gas tank and the fact that it’s a three-rounder, he’s also not in a position to simply outlast “Bon Gamin” until he becomes a stationary target.
I’d mention dos Santos’ underrated offensive wrestling as a potential X-factor, but he’s been loathe to use it these past four years, and trying to take Gane down runs into the same issue as trying to knock his face off: actually getting close enough to do it. If Gane wants a kickboxing match, they’re going to kickbox.
Gane is a man I’m willing to call the future of the Heavyweight division. dos Santos, whose presence in this sport I will always be thankful for, is the past. dos Santos’ sheer power makes him a live dog, as always, but expect Gane to cruise past him with long-range volleys.
Prediction: Gane def. dos Santos by unanimous decision
I like Tony Ferguson and don't like betting against him, but it it's all about making coin bitches isn't it? Tony is an old 36 years old and has got starched in his last 4 fights. Even old Cowboy Cerone was hitting Tony at will before his eye blew up and the Gaethje fight was a brutal beating that has to take a toll on a 36 year old guy. Oliveira has been in the UFC the same amount of years as Ferguson but he's only 31 and hasn't taken nearly the punishment as Tony has. With all the love for Ferguson you would think the line would have moved a lot more towards Tony but it's actually moved towards Do Bronx, so I've got to make the play:
2 units Charles Oliveira + 140
^^ Don't smoke crack, ladies and gentlemen
He will eventually.If Do Bronx finishes Tony, he'll pass Cerrone for most finises in UFC history.
Hard against Ferguson. High level finisher himself. Knows every trick Oliveira presents.
Striking wise not on same level.
I would feel more comfortable backing Oliveira vs Khabib Gaetjhe, McGregor, Poirier.
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You're the only one on crack around here. Whenever there is a fighter passed their prime Unc is on it. lmao
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Dang, you must've got a good price on Gaethje. Does this mean you're on Oliveira?
F uck, that Figueiredo staredown was intense!
I have a personal rule of never betting on a grown man who bleaches his hair.
Hugo de Naranja gave THE_LOCKSMITH 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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